Property bubble ready to pop

I think the 2 Mil record is an error or something fishy happened there.

Current median price for Kellyville is $730,000. Larger fancier houses may go for around I million mark.
 
twobobsworth said:
No error. I live nearby and remember it was front page in the local rag when it originally sold.
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I would expect it depends on the product in the area, possibly unique, sort after??, not everything is equal.

Give you my example.

I purchased a period home in Mt Lawley, (Perth inner city area) - $185,000 on a duplex block, minor renovations during this period, I sold it 16 years later for $1.325M (2008). BTW this was our primary residence not investment, so there is emotion that comes into play with this.

I am still a firm believer in monitoring your investments to ensure that they are performing and not costing you money. Any gains can be lost rapidly when holding for many years with no growth.
 
MTR said:
I would say the Gold Coast has more potential at the moment as the market is changing, there is lack of stock (HOUSES ONLY) and agents are constantly looking, a good sign. Units still over supply would not touch these.
There are many BA jumping in buying for their clients and many properties going to auction. My agent advised that Nathan Birch is buying up and there are others, in the main the lower end and once again as mentioned houses, don't touch units.
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Here's something on the GC from today --- A GOLD Coast cruise ship terminal is one step closer after the State Government took the wraps off a $5 billion plan for Queensland's biggest development on the Spit and Wavebreak Island.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/asf-china-property-consortium-announced-as-preferred-developer-for-broadwater-marine-project/story-e6frg6n6-1226825825933
 
The person that bought for 345000 (land) in 2000 must have built the new house and sold for 2mill made the money. That price of 2mill would have been over market back then... Even at market peaking 2003.
 
peastman said:
Moods change. If the mood changed to doom and gloom and economic ruin, I think those local and international cashed-up investors would decide to wait and see. It was only a few years ago Sydney was in the doldrums and had been for some years.
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That's a bit of re writing of history ....

A few years ago .....

Talk about less than one year ago . Sydney really only came to life, middle of last year in our area of interest ( northern beaches / north shore ) . I don't think places like mt Druitt were much earlier .We were buying two years ago and could well and truly take our time making low offers . We and our daughter was looking early last year and saw the change happening over a period of around one month . Just missed out on one property in manly when we thought we had some time to wait and watch and suddenly there was minimal stock , lots of buyers and prices jumped around 10 % within a matter of weeks. Agents and vendors shifted asking prices , buyers didn't bat an eyelid and kept on buying . For investment properties , we went to Brisbane where there was still room to negotiate .

Cliff
 
I've been watching news reports on China for a few weeks now and Harry has a point. But we can mitigate the risk of any possible burst. Keep doing your homework, value-add and you'll be in front to start with, that's my plan for next IP anyway. I'm just bummed if the bubble bursts, I'm not in a financial position to take advantage at the moment anyway.

Watching the gfc in US, when their property prices ran down hill, interest rates plummeted so (if that happens here) and you have a cash-flow strategy, any equity loss would not be a major concern, as a reduction in interest rates will increase your cash-flow (assuming you have borrowed). As long as you have the rent coming in, you can hold on to your IPs and ride out the wave, while making increased income.

I'm just as concerned at the unemployment rate creeping up. People without jobs don't buy houses! At least people will always need somewhere to live.

Anyhoo, keep thinking happy thoughts and spread them around. You all inspire me to keep the goal in sight.
 
Ali2014 said:
Watching the gfc in US, when their property prices ran down hill, interest rates plummeted so (if that happens here) and you have a cash-flow strategy, any equity loss would not be a major concern, as a reduction in interest rates will increase your cash-flow (assuming you have borrowed). As long as you have the rent coming in, you can hold on to your IPs and ride out the wave, while making increased income.
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Let's not forget that areas in the USA like New York City are UP substantially since the GFC. So....how does one explain that one? The biggest city in the USA can weather the storm and grow. Likewise with London and HK.
 
Aaron_C said:
Let's not forget that areas in the USA like New York City are UP substantially since the GFC. So....how does one explain that one? The biggest city in the USA can weather the storm and grow. Likewise with London and HK.
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Not only that (re: USA) they have broken records for apartment prices in NYC with multiple sales at $90 mil. from memory, and in California, an all time record sale price last year. Some secondary cities are booming, like Phoenix while others like the obvious Detroit are in trouble. All towns and cities with strong fundamentals have recovered.
 
impala67 said:
Not only that (re: USA) they have broken records for apartment prices in NYC with multiple sales at $90 mil. from memory, and in California, an all time record sale price last year. Some secondary cities are booming, like Phoenix while others like the obvious Detroit are in trouble. All towns and cities with strong fundamentals have recovered.
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all you have to do is watch the series.

million dollar listing NEW YORK AND LA.
 
Different perspective

http://www.yourinvestmentpropertyma...-property-crash-are-we-all-doomed-184512.aspx
For a number of years now, bubblers and doomsayers have been predicting the bursting of Australia?s property bubble.

They told us we?re in denial about the impending gloom, blinded by our own exuberance about the consistent performance of the property market over the years.

The warning call has grown louder during the last few weeks when US-based author Harry Dent was in Australia to promote his book.

He tells us to ?Sell all your properties except your home because when the crash comes, you won?t find any buyers and renters who would want them.?

His big claim this time is for Australia?s property prices to plunge 30-50% in the next few years due to commodity prices slowdown and the collapse of China?s economy.

He also claims that Australia?s property markets are mainly supported by Chinese buyers and therefore cannot be sustained.

...
Click to expand...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The cycle we are in now has happened before. And the facts are......it doesn't keep growing until it has a correction. That will come, as our unemployment level continues to rise, with a huge amount of economic slow down forecast 2016-2017-2018 as manufacturing in Australia takes its biggest hits in history. Borrow with care, if you are relying on strong rental return from a working nation to cover your debt for you
 
Steve McKnight seems to have joined the chorus of the doom and gloomers regarding Aussie property judging by his recent emails.
 
Tinkler said:
The cycle we are in now has happened before. And the facts are......it doesn't keep growing until it has a correction. That will come, as our unemployment level continues to rise, with a huge amount of economic slow down forecast 2016-2017-2018 as manufacturing in Australia takes its biggest hits in history. Borrow with care, if you are relying on strong rental return from a working nation to cover your debt for you
Click to expand...
Any Economists that are economic experts would have to be very good at predictions into 2018 ,as 0ver 60% own their ppor-home outright in Australia and all bar a political - economic -occurring or the Australian$$$$ goes the wrong way..
 
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