Where do you see rates by the end of 2012? Up, down or on hold? How much of a change (100 basis points? 50 basis points?)? Please provide reasons as well for your answers.
Rates heading which way?
- Thread starter seano4ever
- Start date
down down down down.
cash rate around 3.5%, bugger know what mortgages will be, around mid july.
then it will be consistent 25bp rises until the end of the federal election, and then another holdin pattern until the carbon tax comes off it's "fixed" CPI increases.
then it's on like donkey kong.
cash rate around 3.5%, bugger know what mortgages will be, around mid july.
then it will be consistent 25bp rises until the end of the federal election, and then another holdin pattern until the carbon tax comes off it's "fixed" CPI increases.
then it's on like donkey kong.
Why do you want to know? None of us know..Not even the worlds best Economists, the RBA's Governer or their Board of Directors. Every answer here will be a guess.
From an investors perspective Interest Rates are purely a cost of doing business.
Very nice graph - where abouts on the ASX website did you find this?
True that no one really knows where interest rates will head. The market can do anything between now and the end of 2012. But if you had to make an educated guess of whether interest rates were going to drop or rise when the market is expecting it (see Berlina's chart) and the majority of the people on the poll are expecting it, I would be more inclined to say they will drop.
Because im trying to decide whether to fix my rate or not (6.3% is looking attractive) or should I hold on and see how the market plays out in 2012 to try and fix at a lower rate. I would feel safer chasing a lower rate knowing that the market is predicting it.
As you mentioned, interest rates are a cost of doing business which you want to minimise if possible.
Why not play it safe and put a bet on each way - split 50/50 fixed and variable. That way rates have to increase twice to equal what you would be paying if you remained on variable and didnt fix at all.
They publish it regularly. I get my buddy google to do the hard work...
The graph shows the direction the market expects interest rates to take, based on current available information. It's usually a good estimate, but it isn't a crystal ball.
I'll be watching over the next few months to see what happens with interest rates. When rates went low in 2008ish I noticed that fixed rates started climbing out about 3 months before the implied yield curve was slated to hit bottom. At the moment I'll have a good look around March 2012, and if interest rates have dropped or are dropping, I'll seriously consider fixing some or all of my property related loans.
Yes fixed rates direction I would have thought preclude variable rates. With the banks that is...
Rixter....do I have to kudos you yet again....?
Done..!
Well thanks but no kudo's came through.Yes fixed rates direction I would have thought preclude variable rates. With the banks that is...
Rixter....do I have to kudos you yet again....?
Done..!
You keeping tabs on kudos...?
LOL!
Sorry but when "dinner's ready" is called, I'm gettin' fed before any kudos is given....sory it's late Rick...
Nope, think of it as due diligence - I'm just keeping you honest!
Nope, think of it as due diligence - I'm just keeping you honest!
Am I not trustworthy in the kudos dept...?
Lol...all good mate, we might have that beer or three in Feb '12...we will be there for the month.
Am I not trustworthy in the kudos dept...?
Lol...all good mate, we might have that beer or three in Feb '12...we will be there for the month.
Sounds good,,,,thanks for the kudo's too
Great interest rate predictor!
Yes you are right. I also look at the futures index as a predictor for interest rates.
I also refinanced 3 loans and tried to be persuaded to lock in for the next 3 years at lower interest rate than variable. That to me implied straight away that rates are on the way down.....
Unless we have a change in monetary system in the world...then who knows? You may laugh but history shows it's been changing every 20-30-40 years and with GFC, who knows?
Yes you are right. I also look at the futures index as a predictor for interest rates.
I also refinanced 3 loans and tried to be persuaded to lock in for the next 3 years at lower interest rate than variable. That to me implied straight away that rates are on the way down.....
Unless we have a change in monetary system in the world...then who knows? You may laugh but history shows it's been changing every 20-30-40 years and with GFC, who knows?
Glenn Stevens and rates coming down, he won't budge, he is too tight. He is like that mate you know who never shouts his round. If he were not on the board they would have moved down by now but geez he is playing a hard game.
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