RBA's Unofficial Briefings: Interest Rates Headed Down Soon

annie lumen said:
If you care to put your money where your mouth is, feel free to PM me! But you won't. The Chicken-little scenario about the sky falling is way too much fun. Besides, it gives you something to live for, your life finally has some meaning when you attempt to "protect" us from ourselves. In your eyes, ALL property will fall, no exceptions allowed. Utter rubbish.
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Not going to play your silly little game. To me, all the pointers point to the next rate movement being up.

I really don't care whether you believe that the property market will correct, or not. I see it correcting as the world is still in bad shape and will double dip, and am position myself for it, for more purchases in late 2013, and retiring in 2017.

I just ignore the spruiking from people like yourself with vested interest in the property market.
 
Rate dropping !! I wouldn't be holding my breath there's currently a major squeeze for banks in relation to cost of fund and I wouldn't expect we'd have the major's pass them on ASAP. However I do agree the economic times are tough if I was a betting man I'd say the earliest would be early next year before we get a break.
 
annie lumen said:
What are your vested interests? Or shall I assume that you are here to protect us?
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You have not told us your vested interests
also read your OTHER thread re: Frankston
Nothing against Frankston BTW
there are some good pockets to invest but stay clear from others

back to the topic about rate rises

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/money/i...in-march-quarter/story-fn312x46-1226045561164

Annual inflation was running at 3.3 per cent the latest data showed - more than the 3 per cent predicted by economists.

The figure has led experts to predict the Reserve Bank will have to step in to take some of the heat out of the economy.
 
Well, I am putting my money where my money is ....I am predicting that rates will start dropping around Sept/Oct this year. As a result I have negotiated all my rates to go variable...currently I have negoatiated rates of 6.87% for my variable.

I am also buying madly as I feel that the market will turn for the better around late 2012....in particularl NSW.

The reason I think rates will drop is as per below:

1. I think inflation has peaked.....over the next few months food and oil prices will ease. With the retail price wars we will see food prices come dow further.

2. The inflation spike was primarily due to natural disasters....this will now normalise unless we have another Flood or Cyclone.

3.Building approvals have dropped significantly...this is going to shave quite a few points of growth off GDP. Remember that 30% of the Australian economy is reliant on the building industry.

4. The two tier economy is hurting most people...apart from mining most other industries are suffering.

The RBA will see this in their June, July, and August figures....and by Sept/Oct we will be heading down in terms of interest rates.

My money is on it.....:D

annie lumen said:
Yes, it is possible to make money on futures or options on IR. But I'd rather mkae bets with the panicmongers because:

1. Most are too gutless to put their money where their mouths are
2. The financial pain of losing a bet may well put them in their place. Maybe they might learn to switch on their brains before mouthing off on topics they know little about. Losing a few thousand may make them more humble.
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Rates will only go up

Those who are saying rates will drop.. are you guys serious? Rates dropping?so you are saying the government will let runaway inflation put more pressure on family budgets? Rates will definitely go up and to say it wouldn't is like saying house prices are only going up as we know that they are falling by the day.there will be a repeat of pre GFC conditions, and if the rates to drop it would not be until mid next year.

Rates only go down when unemployment is high and growth is negative and inflation is low everybody knows that.

Low interest rates are bad for any economy as it creates too much cheap credit that cause a lot of problems when rates start going up and there is no way the RBA will let that happen again.

So say even if the rates drop, Banks will not lend. they are experiencing a massive credit crunch because all the financial institutions around the world are busy bailing out the Americans.people will still pay off debt regardless and there will be subdued consumer activity in every sector.
 
"Bottom line: prepare for an early rate rise and with more to come later in the year. Only GFC-like disasters can "save" you from them."

A great closing line from that article
 
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I'll take the bet on. $1000 it is. If rates go up Annie you pay me $1000 and if rates go down I pay you $1000.

I hope I lose as would love to see rates go down.
 
sash said:
Well, I am putting my money where my money is ....I am predicting that rates will start dropping around Sept/Oct this year. As a result I have negotiated all my rates to go variable...currently I have negoatiated rates of 6.87% for my variable.
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Good luck Sash. I think however you have picked it incorrectly. Interest rates will head up, and property prices will continue to cool.

sash said:
1. I think inflation has peaked.....over the next few months food and oil prices will ease. With the retail price wars we will see food prices come dow further.

2. The inflation spike was primarily due to natural disasters....this will now normalise unless we have another Flood or Cyclone.
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The main inflation driver will now be the natural disasters mid-term. It will be the fact that inflation is rising globally (everyone has overstimulated). China is fighting inflation. Much of Australia's inflation rise will come from imported inflationary pressure.
 
Hi,

I believe the next 10 years is going to be Very difficult, so much debt to work through, so many sovereign debt experiments being made at present. One must fail, when it does all hell breaks loose, has to happen eventually.

Like everyone else I have no idea how to plan for it because their are so many screw ups throughout the world no one can know which one collapses first Euro or USA.

Either way I suppose China slows dramatically and so do we, I guess we get a small rise or two to slow current demand, then we get a collapse with resultant quick large drop in interest like 2008. Then a year or two after that we might get rampant inflation as govts throw money around (which they don't have).

What I can't work out is why they think borrowing money to pay off debts is a good idea. If I owe money on a credit card I can't pay, then nowhere are you advised to get another card to pay off the first one, yet that is what the govts are doing, just DUMB:(
 
Unofficial briefings eh?

annie lumen said:
Well placed journalists are being unofficially briefed by RBA economists that rates may be headed down in the very near future. The interest rate cycle has clearly turned, just as the dollar has soared to new post-float highs.

Here's an article that should arouse some interest:

http://www.news.com.au/money/intere...d-be-cut-by-june/story-e6frfmn0-1226029863080

I recall somebody mentioning the same on these threads a few weeks ago. He or she was branded a heretic at the time. It's interesting how times (and cycles) change.

Enjoy! I think we all deserve a break.
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LOL how can we get a ticket to these unofficial briefings? Unofficial brifing toJournalists LOL Damn i didnt know that :)
 
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annie lumen said:
Thanks for bringing this to my attention. You are one of few SS contributers with erudition and an understanding of markets.
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Dear Annie Lumen

I don't know you. Don't know much about you at all. Only what I read. You could be rich, poor, a troll, someone banned and back under another name or hey, the PM of our country!

What I do know is you dont know me. You cannot. I don't post under my name and I keep my business private. I don't twitter, facebook, give interviews, in the social pages, etc...google me and you get zip.

So how if (as you claim) you are an intelligent, sophisticated, informed investor, how, can you make such a simple generalisation of a statement as above "one of few SS contributers with erudition and an understanding of the market" and have any creditability?

Do you realise there are at last count (when I was a moderator here) about 7000 members of SS. I know personally many have multiple properties (including me). I know a lot more have above, to well above average investment portfolios?

Your comment is offensive to all of us. It is stupid, simple and adds no value.

Peter 14.7

PS contributers is spelled contributors. But it would be simple generalisation and cheap shot to assume because "you don't spell good" you are dumb. No, your just rude.
 
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News Update

annie lumen said:
Well placed journalists are being unofficially briefed by RBA economists that rates may be headed down in the very near future. The interest rate cycle has clearly turned, just as the dollar has soared to new post-float highs.
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NEWS UPDATE: At the same time international investors are being unofficially briefed by RBA economists that their inflow of capital is no longer required and domestic consumption through the reduction of interest rates will replace the status quo :rolleyes:

You refer to "graphs on the RBA website", but provide no other credible proof of why interest rates "may" go down. Yet, you are willing to wager a bet on the basis that interest rates "may" go down. Sounds like irrational exuberance

One pillar of the two tier economy you speak off is already in recession in several states. WA for example was in technical recession in the last half of 2010 (source: West Australian Chamber of Commerce). If the RBA were to drop interest rates they would have at the start of the year. But they have not and will not because the second pillar resources boom in WA is yet to even materialise. In other words they do not think you deserve a break. You are not the golden goose. In fact, I am willing to wager at 100% margin that the RBA would rather see spruikers like yourself at breaking point before they move.
 
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