RBS issues fresh alert on global stock markets

OK, this is my final post! promise.

Getting more and more news that after this large rally in stock, the next move down will be big and will be in Sep/Oct/Nov. We're not talking the fringe analysts here. Reasons given are the same reasons as I believe. All the talk of "recovery" is just a cover for all the problems that still exist.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/6018076/RBS-uber-bear-issues-fresh-alert-on-global-stock-markets.html

Britain's Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid "relief rally" over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears.

But like I said. Good luck to Somersoft. Good luck with your "property boom". The smart thing would be to de-leverage in the short term, but then what do I know.

Watch the confidence and consumer sentiment turn in the next 3mths. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

There is always money to be made in being patient. Buy back in at 2500-2600 All Ords come Dec/Jan :))
Buy more properties cheaper next year, once the FHO start feeling the heat :))
 
Define BIG I888 ?

10%
15%
20%
25%
more?

I too think there will be a pull back, how much and when I haven't a clue, but have a feeling its a comin ;)
 
Similar email from the Chartist...suggesting a double dip in stockmarket ...we've been through the first dip...I understand he is suggesting a second dip is coming

"Special Report Offer



ASX Special Report - A History of Declines

In the 4-years of publishing The Chartist we have written just three Special Reports.

We don't write them lightly.

1. March 2007 - A Major Top
2. October 2008 - A History of Declines
3. March 2009 - A Major Low

History shows our March 2007 and March 2009 reports were on the money.

These won't help you now though.

The October 2008 report might.

The All Ordinaries Index has advanced 47.5% since the recent low on 9 March. The October 2008 Report addresses the possibilities we face at this point and outlines what has happened in the past.

You're invited to view the October 2008 report for FREE.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Once you have read this report you may consider the consequences.

Remember that in 2008 many Brokers and Financial Planners did not tell their clients to sell.

They just told them to hold on.

Everyone is a genius when the market is rising. But true skill is required when managing positions, specifically knowing when to exit and go to cash.

24-years of trading and investing experience is what The Chartist brings you.

Knowing how and when to exit and doing so without emotion.

Regardless if you are a short term trader or mid-term active investor, The Chartist has the solution.

Enjoy the Special Report but consider how we can make your journey a lot less painful."

www.thechartist.com.au
 
Define BIG I888 ?

10%
15%
20%
25%
more?

Well I am saying 2500-2600 All Ords by Nov/Dec. So off the current 4460, say 45%. Then my crystal ball says another rally for a while, then the last down to maybe 2200, before it's all over. I think this because it will take a while for all the Alt-A, and option arms in the US to filter through and really affect the markets. And the US is generally really messed up. China's is in an stimulus inflated bubble that will come back once the lending is wound back.

Apart from Today Tonight, and SMH, etc, I really can't see where you Somersoft guys are seeing a recovery. It's all just spin. Things are slowly deteriorating. It wouldn't be good for the banks either if the FASB forces more stringent accounting standards back.

Next Bubble to Burst Is Banks’ Big Loan Values
http://www.wealth.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a04oVutXQybk

Interesting times. We'll I'll sleep happily through it, and then pick up bargins again in Dec/Jan.

Bye
 
Last edited:
Apart from Today Tonight, and SMH, etc, I really can't see where you Somersoft guys are seeing a recovery.
I didn't know there was an official Somersoft position. :confused:

I have also read many articles suggesting that there's a larger dip to come. I sure hope so, because I held off buying in on that basis, and I'm feeling pretty stupid right now. :eek:
 
There is always a pullback in October. Did these people predict the massive fall, lets say, 2 years ago before the GFC became public knowledge?
 
I dont waste my time trying to make short term forecasts of the stock market, and i dont waste my time adjusting my portfolio to the thoughts of others with regards to future trends in the market.

Instead i just concentrate on the underlying companies. If the market wants to sell me something cheap i buy, if the market wants to pay an expensive price for a share i sell.

Very simple and has served me very well over the last 18 months.

Thanks but i see no reason to change my investment philosophy when it has performed well over the last 15 odd years
 
I dont waste my time trying to make short term forecasts of the stock market, and i dont waste my time adjusting my portfolio to the thoughts of others with regards to future trends in the market.

Instead i just concentrate on the underlying companies. If the market wants to sell me something cheap i buy, if the market wants to pay an expensive price for a share i sell.

Very simple and has served me very well over the last 18 months.

Thanks but i see no reason to change my investment philosophy when it has performed well over the last 15 odd years

I agree ! every time i choose somthing different off the menu i get disapointed, stick to what works for you , for me its steak!;)
 


'...ooh the storm's a comin' anni! i 'kin feel it it me bones..."

every sept/oct for the last 100 years has resulted in profit taking both here and overseas.

yay for normality.
 
I sure hope so, because I held off buying in on that basis, and I'm feeling pretty stupid right now. :eek:

Pretty poor reason to wish pain on other investors.:(

I'm with I888 in that I do not believe the recovery story but I won't be drawn on when and how much markets will fall.

I did not think the recovery would be so strong so long and didn't gain as much as I might have but I'm not about to jump in NOW. I'll stay lightly invested and see what happens.

I'll be interested to see if Evan is about to get out. He apparently, has enjoyed the mini-boom. :)
 
Thanks for the advice....but have been through 3 economic cycles....

For the record...my view are:

1. I too believe the all ordinaries will pull back in Sept./Oct. ....historytells us that it tends to happen a strong period of growth just like the last 6 months. But then it will rally usually in Dec. / Jan.

2. Some properties maybe cheaper than now.....but won't be cheaper than 18 months ago!

3. I tend not to worry about the short term...I worry about the long term...I invest in quality assets. Have you read Warren Buffet's books?

I don't need luck....I tend to make my own....investing is a business not based on faith, irrational thoughts or luck. Instead it is quite boring....requiring vision, planning, rational thought/analysis, and steady nerves!;)

But like I said. Good luck to Somersoft. Good luck with your "property boom". The smart thing would be to de-leverage in the short term, but then what do I know.

Watch the confidence and consumer sentiment turn in the next 3mths. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

There is always money to be made in being patient. Buy back in at 2500-2600 All Ords come Dec/Jan :))
Buy more properties cheaper next year, once the FHO start feeling the heat :))
 
I'll be interested to see if Evan is about to get out. He apparently, has enjoyed the mini-boom. :)

It's looking toppy now for sure, 'specially banks and building materials...I'd be taking profits in those sectors right now.....but not everything is topping out at the moment......;)

Not hard to make a few bucks in the last 6 months on the ASX....bargain prices with stop loss & trailing profit orders....simple stuff really...and yes, I am qualified, up 30% since Jan ....should be more but hey...a Landscaper by day I still am... for the moment......:D

Fresh alert...whatever...:rolleyes:

BTW...all the profits go back into property...!
 
Well I am saying 2500-2600 All Ords by Nov/Dec. So off the current 4460, say 45%.
Next Bubble to Burst Is Banks’ Big Loan Values
Just posted the NAB purchase plan offer off a few days ago,sometimes it pays to invest in top end Banks,and sometimes they look after eligable long term shareholders,but with all the up down foolish not visible media crap out there i intend to keep buying as long as my money lasts as they say some people often accept that a financial strategy with a small chance of success is not necessarily a bad one as long as the success is large enough to justify the risk:),if you have a look at the price today of NAB,and the purchase plan price,$21.50,...the only Bank i have sold
is BOQ,at over 40% shorterm profit because there is a '"Storm" BREWING..
imho willair.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090818/pdf/31k4hqm763w5fc.pdf
 
Just posted the NAB purchase plan offer off a few days ago,sometimes it pays to invest in top end Banks,and sometimes they look after eligable long term shareholders,but with all the up down foolish not visible media crap out there i intend to keep buying as long as my money lasts as they say some people often accept that a financial strategy with a small chance of success is not necessarily a bad one as long as the success is large enough to justify the risk:),if you have a look at the price today of NAB,and the purchase plan price,$21.50,...the only Bank i have sold
is BOQ,at over 40% shorterm profit because there is a '"Storm" BREWING..
imho willair.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090818/pdf/31k4hqm763w5fc.pdf

Like you im sticking with the big4. Congrat's on the BOQ profit, but i also agree with your logic on selling it. 2nd tyer banks did very well when loans could be securitised. With this market still being closed i think they will have a strategic disadvantage, and its strategic issues that i focus on.
 
It's looking toppy now for sure, 'specially banks and building materials...I'd be taking profits in those sectors right now.....but not everything is topping out at the moment......;)

Not hard to make a few bucks in the last 6 months on the ASX....bargain prices with stop loss & trailing profit orders....simple stuff really...and yes, I am qualified, up 30% since Jan ....should be more but hey...a Landscaper by day I still am... for the moment......:D

no - it's never hard to make money in a bull market - especially when you've realised the top is actually here and where's it's come from....:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

no offence, but you just sounded like an armchair investor then.
 
where can i find evidence of this sell off in sept/oct each year. From looking at the XJO since 2000 in Stockdoctor I can't see a predominate sell off each Sept/Oct. Is there a free chart software program that shows this back 20 or 30 years?

or am i looking at the wrong data?

OSS
 
Well I agreeing with the fact that the stimulous activity is a short term bandaid and there is no reason to be bullish on the economies or equities.
But the question is how will it affect the RE market?
Will it lead to inflation or deflation?
Will they do the same as Japan and keep rates low to stop mass bankruptcies?
Or will they raise rates and cause lots of inflation & bankruptcies?

The RBA is there to protect the brotherhood of the big banks, and if they see bankruptcies on the rise, they will stop them as this will cause losses the their brethren banks.
If rates are kept low and we follow what Japan did, there will be no growth for a decade.
Of the course the RBA will charge whatever the market can bare, but there's still a lot of people out there on the thin edge, and with unemployment rising, it won't get better.
Those who got a 12mth reprieve will soon have a bigger loan & bigger repayments.
If they get squeezed, it means more losses by the banks. I'm not so sure the RBA will go this route.

Skata use the US yahoo finance site
 
Top