Real Estate and Recessions...

[TJamesX]

An interesting illustration of the relationship between high real estate growth and subsequent economic troubles.

There is a strong inverse relationship between house price growth (blue line) and unemployment (red line), the bands of yellow are periods of recession.

Original article link (thanks wayneL PI.com);

http://www.alwayson-network.com/comments.php?id=10732_0_24_0_C

although I think the article is a bit of a stretch I did like the graph (US figures), it would be interesting to see the same graph for AUS

 

[Merovingian]

An interesting illustration of the relationship between high real estate growth and subsequent economic troubles.

There is a strong inverse relationship between house price growth (blue line) and unemployment (red line), the bands of yellow are periods of recession.

Original article link (thanks wayneL PI.com);

http://www.alwayson-network.com/comments.php?id=10732_0_24_0_C

although I think the article is a bit of a stretch I did like the graph (US figures), it would be interesting to see the same graph for AUS

Thanks, James.

Very interesting indeed. Unemployment would be a large contributing factor/result of the state of the country's economy.

Pity I can't read the dates on the bottom of the graph. Any idea what they are? I'm just interested to see the length of time the data were recorded...

Also, is it Australia-wide or state-wide, (e.g. NSW etc).

Thanks.

 

[TJamesX]

Pity I can't read the dates on the bottom of the graph. Any idea what they are? I'm just interested to see the length of time the data were recorded...

Also, is it Australia-wide or state-wide, (e.g. NSW etc).

Its pretty hard to see, but the data goes from Q1 1968 to Q1 2004 (actually a bit past that so its probably up to the end of 2004).

The stats are for the US market, although I'm sure it would be pretty easy to draw one up for the AUS market using ABS stats - if anyone wants to give it a go

TJ

 

[Tim]

I think the 10-15 years before prices start to rise at all is a bit pessimistic. I am inclined to think that we will see a prices in Oz beginning to rise around the beginning of the new decade, assuming a combination of falling prices, rising yields and reasonable employment levels.

Tim

 

[Merovingian]

The stats are for the US market, although I'm sure it would be pretty easy to draw one up for the AUS market using ABS stats - if anyone wants to give it a go

It would be easy to draw up the stats, but getting them from the ABS is the hardest part...

Did I hear somewhere that the ABS was going to make the majority of statistics free for everyone, or am I going silly?

Thanks...

 

[thefirstbruce]

According to the graph, house prices never went backwards. i.e. growth never went below 0. I wonder if that is true.

I believe house price growth is tied in tightly with the easy availability of borrowed funds. And borrowed funds are more easily available when more people are stably employed to service mortgages.

 

[Aceyducey]

Did I hear somewhere that the ABS was going to make the majority of statistics free for everyone, or am I going silly?

Thanks...

Merovingian,

Yes they've been planning to do this.

However in order to retain their profit on selling statistics all the free statistics they will be giving away will contain enough random errors that they are unusable for commercial purposes.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[topcropper]

I think the 10 to 15 years slump is very extreme. Property will be a good investment well before then. I predict that I will be buying up years before then. Once the stock market starts getting expensive and hyped up, I will be looking about. Rents are increasing already, and the short term outlook for the Australian economy is great. The increased prices recieved for coal and Iron ore hasn't even flowed through yet.

See ya's.

 

[ArJay]

It would be easy to draw up the stats, but getting them from the ABS is the hardest part...

Did I hear somewhere that the ABS was going to make the majority of statistics free for everyone, or am I going silly?

Mergo...
Trip down to your local library. They (should as we do) have all the ABS data free to the public via online and hardcopy

ArJay

 

[ArJay]

BTW...is it just me or is that graph a bit skewed? I'm seeing 1978Q1 and 1978Q3 occupying about the same space on the x-axis as 1997Q1 to 2000Q3. Suppose it's to better illustrate corelation of the data, but it's still moocho confusing...

ArJay