Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019

[hobo-jo]

Could you please explain this to people like me who have no clue what those numbers mean? haha sorry...

It's a rolling average annual growth figure for Sydney's house prices, highlighting the booms and busts.

If you've ever heard someone talking about the property cycle or clock, the chart can be used to guesstimate where we are. I'd suggest it's 12 o'clock in Sydney.

 

[ej89]

It's a rolling average annual growth figure for Sydney's house prices, highlighting the booms and busts.

If you've ever heard someone talking about the property cycle or clock, the chart can be used to guesstimate where we are. I'd suggest it's 12 o'clock in Sydney.

I understand the clock but with those percantages on the side is that percentage growth?

And what are the numbers with an m at the bottom? Is it million? Teach me good sir

 

[ej89]

This may sound silly, but how would a recession affect property prices? What happened to property during our last recession?

 

[hobo-jo]

I understand the clock but with those percantages on the side is that percentage growth?

And what are the numbers with an m at the bottom? Is it million? Teach me good sir

Yes percentage growth, but it's annual & averaged, basically just smooths out the volatile month to month movements.

The numbers at the bottom were just a measure of the months between the vertical lines. 29 months, 19 months, 29 months. There's nothing to say this boom can't go for longer, but it's starting to look overstretched based on previous booms.

 

[Ausprop]

do different cities get different markings on their clocks? most other cities seem to be both 6 o'clock and 9 o'clock

here's something interesting... if you have a watch with Roman numerals, check out the number 4. Weird hey??

 

[WattleIdo]

I thought Sydney had reached 12:00 a few months ago but stand corrected. It seems to be at 10:45 now.

Ausprop: if you have a watch with Roman numerals, check out the number 4. Weird hey??

why?

 

[Ausprop]

here's an image...

http://www.saksfifthavenue.com/main...AID=&catargetid=500002830005960978&cadevice=c

should be IV,not IIII

 

[Ausprop]

I thought Sydney had reached 12:00 a few months ago but stand corrected. It seems to be at 10:45 now.

could be 1.00?

 

[WattleIdo]

could be 1.00?

Yeah could be. Even 1:30, 2. But it's still hot and construction is kicking in and apparently apartments are now going like hot-cakes. It slowed for a while but it's hotter than ever again.

 

[WattleIdo]

here's an image...

http://www.saksfifthavenue.com/main...AID=&catargetid=500002830005960978&cadevice=c

should be IV,not IIII

oh yes, true. Depends on the watch? Maybe helps avoid confusion keeping all the Vs and Is together on one side.

 

[JamesP]

I understand the clock but with those percantages on the side is that percentage growth?

And what are the numbers with an m at the bottom? Is it million? Teach me good sir

I think there's no argument we're between 9-12. But I still think given foreign investment and the desire to live in Melbourne and Sydney worldwide, that demand will be far more sustainable than previous cycle or what that clock implies?

The market could be a lot more "behind" in terms of demand than what people think.

 

[Ausprop]

oh yes, true. Depends on the watch?

no that's the weird thing, it's all watches

 

[Ausprop]

I think there's no argument we're between 9-12. But I still think given foreign investment and the desire to live in Melbourne and Sydney worldwide, that demand will be far more sustainable than previous cycle or what that clock implies?

The market could be a lot more "behind" in terms of demand than what people think.

or more advanced? the 2 previous posts argued it could be after midnight, the clock says so

is there any worldwide desire to live in Melbourne... not sure they would have even heard of it? London and New York are where it's at

 

[skater]

no that's the weird thing, it's all watches

Bizarre!

 

[see_change]

It's a rolling average annual growth figure for Sydney's house prices, highlighting the booms and busts.

If you've ever heard someone talking about the property cycle or clock, the chart can be used to guesstimate where we are. I'd suggest it's 12 o'clock in Sydney.

Hi hobo

I'm happy to agree that we're at 12 o'clock ,but sometimes time passes slowly . I still think we could have a strong market for up to around 2 years , so that would take the peak to 2017 . My previous observations is that any time I've followed a property boom , it's gone on much longer than people expect .

On that model we don't see falling prices until around 6 which is half way through the cycle .

There seems to be a perception that the cycle is around 10 years , but given that the last big boom in sydney peaked in 2003 , then in 2015 we're at a minimum of 12 years , and possibly it could go to 13-14 depending on when it does finally peak .

Has any one seen any research as to whether the hours on the clock are equidistant ? My assumption is they're not , but lets assume that they are , or if not they're close to it .

So if we have a 12 -14 year cycle , we're looking at around 6-7 years from the peak to when prices are falling at their worst .

Earliest peak is 2015 ( 12 year cycle ) and latest is 2017 (14 year cycle ) or who knows ...

Lets assume there's a couple of years grace around the timing . Shortest time to the trough would be 4 years from now and the longest time will 9 years from 2017 .

So for an academic exercise my prediction is the next trough will bottom out somewhere between 2019 and 2026 .

For me this is purely academic as my investing is not reliant on when the next trough or peak occurs . I see opportunities now , and at some stage I will post ...... once I've finished buying

Cliff

 

[charlieandkath]

Hi hobo

I'm happy to agree that we're at 12 o'clock ,but sometimes time passes slowly . I still think we could have a strong market for up to around 2 years , so that would take the peak to 2017 . My previous observations is that any time I've followed a property boom , it's gone on much longer than people expect .

On that model we don't see falling prices until around 6 which is half way through the cycle .

There seems to be a perception that the cycle is around 10 years , but given that the last big boom in sydney peaked in 2003 , then in 2015 we're at a minimum of 12 years , and possibly it could go to 13-14 depending on when it does finally peak .

Has any one seen any research as to whether the hours on the clock are equidistant ? My assumption is they're not , but lets assume that they are , or if not they're close to it .

So if we have a 12 -14 year cycle , we're looking at around 6-7 years from the peak to when prices are falling at their worst .

Earliest peak is 2015 ( 12 year cycle ) and latest is 2017 (14 year cycle ) or who knows ...

Lets assume there's a couple of years grace around the timing . Shortest time to the trough would be 4 years from now and the longest time will 9 years from 2017 .

So for an academic exercise my prediction is the next trough will bottom out somewhere between 2019 and 2026 .

For me this is purely academic as my investing is not reliant on when the next trough or peak occurs . I see opportunities now , and at some stage I will post ...... once I've finished buying

Cliff

I agree with this post from see change. In fact I've been backing see change for a few years now and in a game where we probably should not predict ahead too far this guy has got it pretty spot on. Lot of common sense and skin in the game also.

 

[hobo-jo]

I'm happy to agree that we're at 12 o'clock ,but sometimes time passes slowly . I still think we could have a strong market for up to around 2 years , so that would take the peak to 2017

Agree that time can pass slowly, 12 o'clock doesn't mean a peak right this minute, but I think the (Sydney) market has already been very strong for 12-18 months, I'd be surprised if it lasts another 2 years.

 

[charlieandkath]

Agree that time can pass slowly, 12 o'clock doesn't mean a peak right this minute, but I think the (Sydney) market has already been very strong for 12-18 months, I'd be surprised if it lasts another 2 years.

I reckon this is a mother boom though like the one in 2003. There are too many cards lining up. The mini boom in 09/10 was just a baby and the cards were not quite as well lined up eg you had rising interest rates in 2010.

 

[hobo-jo]

I reckon this is a mother boom though like the one in 2003. There are too many cards lining up. The mini boom in 09/10 was just a baby and the cards were not quite as well lined up eg you had rising interest rates in 2010.

On several measures the current boom is already exceeding the one in 2003.

Investors as % of market.
Months in duration (as per my earlier chart). https://twitter.com/BullionBaron/status/582685352210534400
Nominal value of mortgage lending (have not measured real, but suspect it's higher).
Auction clearance rates are higher.

 

[Bentley]

Sydney's population to reach 5 million in a year

Do you guys seriously believe that Sydney's property prices are going to start falling anytime soon??

With such a sharp increase in population, surely these new residents need a place to stay. Their own place or rent. Which is why I can't see prices in Sydney falling anytime soon. Good luck to those who are waiting for prices to crash.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydneys-p...n_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook