Beat me to it. I was about to say similar.
Watsons Bay is not your average suburb.
Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019
- Thread starter sash
- Start date
Beat me to it. I was about to say similar.
Watsons Bay is not your average suburb.
The link Roy posted talks about black swans.
My own observation about the clear blue skies is that black swans have a habit of happening when people are most comfortable in the status quo / least expect them. Which is almost by definition in a way.
That's why I get very uncomfortable when asset pricing doesn't appear to include any discount for risk. It's when the perception of risk is highest (eg after a big crash and everyone is scared) that I actually want to be buying. Hard to do though...
Even then we have lots of alternatives these days that we never had in the 70s. Still vulnerable to shocks in the short term but it won't take long for people to transition across to other sources or reduced use through energy efficiency.
Hopefully it will be lower profile and more affordable booms in other cities and regions which will eventually cause Sydney to cool.
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/re...ne-is-better-than-sydney-20150327-1m92k0.html
I love Sydney but Yes, people will move out of Sydney due to traffic, overcrowding and cost of accomodation. Australians still do like to have space!
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/re...ne-is-better-than-sydney-20150327-1m92k0.html
I love Sydney but Yes, people will move out of Sydney due to traffic, overcrowding and cost of accomodation. Australians still do like to have space!
OK. Nice use of language.
I was hoping that a black swan was a beautiful and rare piece of luck added to the blue skies that we already seem to be enjoying. But apparently not.
Well picked up.
Aren't black swans native to Australia?
With an auction clearance rate of 87.5% this weekend of 1128 homes I seriously think these people leaving Sydney do not have once ounce of influence on the Sydney market and have higher doubt that they will cause the Sydney market to 'cool'.
In regards to traffic and overcrowding, hopefully the Libs can stay in for another 2 terms to fix the crap of what 16 years of Labor left behind.
Sentiment affects all buyers all the time. Nothing special about the top.
You said... 'the downturn to start which will begin when the last 'greater fool' has purchased'
Can you explain why a downturn would be caused by a certain person (or set of people) buying?
Of course you can't.
A change in the fundamentals will cause the downturn.
The downturn will cause some people to end up being 'greater fools' because they happened to buy at the peak.
Your statement is like saying 'the rain will begin when the ground is wet'.
While the same principles apply to property and shares the actual impact is totally different .
What you're describing is trading
First of all , you don't get your property revalued every day .
Second - big one . Most property owners aren't active traders . They're not looking to take a quick 20 % profit , or sell if their trailing stop is broken .
Third Transaction costs are much higher , which goes against trading , just to name a couple of key differences
In terms of technical analysis of properties , simple following the trend works well , with a movement off the bottom being your early entry point and breaking a previous high being your confirmation . I like to buy somewhere between the two .
It is probably easier to pick the bottom in property than shares .
volume is a leading indicator and the easiest way to follow that is decreasing supply .
Cliff
Normally I'm driving around the upper north shore and over to the upper northern beeches . The previous weekend I drove to a company title meeting in Mosman on Sunday afternoon . Last wed I drove into see les mis at the capital .
I don't think I'm a cranky old ... But the drivers were horrendous , with the highlight being someone stopping on the approaches to the harbour bridge instead of merging , when they were obviously confused . I was grateful I stopped without going into the taxi behind them , but I spent a couple of nervous seconds wishing for a space to change into , hoping someone didn't go into me .
In Mosman I got an abusive letter on my windscreen when I parked between two driveways . I thought it was one parking spot , but obviously the writer felt it should fit two cars and spent a page abusing me is several different ways for my mistake . Personally I thought the letter said a lot more about them than me ...
We've thought about moving closer to the City , but each time I go in to visit some one or go somewhere I come away with a sense of relief when I get back to the UNS .
I'm a fairly tolerant easy going person , but I can understand why there are lots of people who are more than happy to live somewhere else than Sydney .
Cliff
Sydney is getting more and more "cosmopolitan". The price of it is congestion and also dealing with people with no manners.
We are squeezing more and more units/apartments into inner-Sydney area. This caused more and more traffic congestion.
A few years ago driving around Castle Hill was a breeze. Now on the weekend, the roads around Castle Towers are horrendous. This is before they start building all those new units/high rises over the next few years. The traffic is gonna be shocking around those areas when all those new units are completed.
Looking at Strathfield/Homebush areas and you can see sea of units around there, and the government wants to replicate this throughout Parramatta Road.
That is the price to pay for Sydney as part of population growth.
I am sure UNS is still nice, until the government decides to squeeze more apartments around all those UNS train station areas.
Sydney prices are absolutely going nuts.
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/Sydney_Domain.pdf
I won't be overly surprised if it goes up another 10% this year at this rate. What happens after that I have no idea.
I don't think prices 'crashed' immediately after/during he GFC. Perhaps prices will just stagnate after this boom. Guess we'll find out soon enough.
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/Sydney_Domain.pdf
I won't be overly surprised if it goes up another 10% this year at this rate. What happens after that I have no idea.
I don't think prices 'crashed' immediately after/during he GFC. Perhaps prices will just stagnate after this boom. Guess we'll find out soon enough.
What I described was a market.
All markets are made up of a mix of owner types. Short term flippers, long term holders, trend chasers and many others who participate in different ways.
Talking about property cycles, volumes, this is all part of trading, timing entry and/or exits.
I am not saying that the share market is exactly the same as the property market, but it's affected by many of the same overriding influences, demand, supply, cash flow, sentiment, which all results in similar outcomes, booms, crashes, flat periods and everything in between.
They've already put units down the highway in the last few year . You may be surprised how many units have already gone in around some of the railway stations in the last few years , in particular around Turramurra ave , lindfield ( at the height of the GFC we looked at a block just behind lindfield station . Top penthouse with 3 beds and a very large roof top patio was going for 1.2 -1.3 . Was a good buy but we went Mosman instead . Should have bought both ....
Cliff
Sydney cycle looking stretched on AAGR basis:
Could you please explain this to people like me who have no clue what those numbers mean? haha sorry...
can't you see the double top candle drop??
I think it looks more like a reverse head and shoulders . Seriously , and that predicts a stong up trend
Could also make a flag out of it at a pinch .
Cliff
