Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019

[MichaelW]

Can't Agree more.... assets near the beaches and close to good local amenity is VERY RARE.... hence price will keep on increasing.
But not too sure if you're buying in the 3+mill realm hahah

No no no... My 3 bed, 2 bath, DLUG places in the heart of Mona Vale have 1's in front, not 3's...

Nothing THAT flash.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[ToGetProperty]

Over the next couple of years we can expect to see:

- The shuttering of the car manufacturing industry.
- The winding down of the largest driver of GDP growth over last few years (mining investment).
- The popping of a fairly significant bubble (or severe correction) in Sydney.

is conflicting to:

You need IR to rise to 7-8% for the recipe to work....expect them to head up from mid 2016...and topping out in late 2017....this equivalent of a 65-90% rise assuming one or two more cuts.

Last time it rose it had an impact it went from high 5s to mid 8s.....it rose 55%.

I cannot see both are going together.

The Sydney property market will crash if interest rate is more than 6%, but what happens if IR is going down bellow 1%, with A$ down to 60US cents, by year 2017?

 

[windyzz]

hahahah let's hope that Interest rate doesn't go down below 2%.. For the good of everyone hahahah.

Let's keep it around 2.5-3%...... Let the growth be sustainable *PRAYING*****

is conflicting to:



I cannot see both are going together.

The Sydney property market will crash if interest rate is more than 6%, but what happens if IR is going down bellow 1%, with A$ down to 60US cents, by year 2017?

 

[ej89]

Absolutely! Land scarcity is what drives appreciation and land that close to beaches with good local amenity and easy access to a major capital city is scarce. You're spot on, and I agree big land out west has less scarcity value.

Cheers,
Michael

Would the same apply to the central and south coast or not really?

 

[see_change]

No no no... My 3 bed, 2 bath, DLUG places in the heart of Mona Vale have 1's in front, not 3's...

Nothing THAT flash.

Cheers,
Michael

Yes ...... Micheal , but you do have three of them .......

Cliff

 

[sash]

Kitchink....I will bring forward my retirementn4 years. That means interest rates will be about 3-3.4%. I will fix my rates and wait it out...the market will go crazy and there will be massive bust when rates even go back up to 6%..at least in Sydney!

At 60 cents employment will also be up significantly.....

is conflicting to:



I cannot see both are going together.

The Sydney property market will crash if interest rate is more than 6%, but what happens if IR is going down bellow 1%, with A$ down to 60US cents, by year 2017?

 

[kamchatsky]

Latest blog from John Edwards from Residex, he thinks Sydney housing shortage is overplayed and it is getting to oversupply situation:

http://blog.residex.com.au/2015/03/...m_medium=email&utm_campaign=Cid=ResiMarNews15

 

[windyzz]

They didn't mentioned anything about the previous years, where the dwelling was not approved fast enough. Right now the supply is just catching up.

I also believed that this year net migration to NSW and ViC will be greater than our previous year, since WA economy is weakening.

ABS actually predicted the opposite :http://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...ple-living-alone/story-e6frflo9-1227277679137

 

[MsAli]

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-toongabbie-119408443

Surely an issue if this 1700 odd sqm lot is selling for 10,000,000

 

[mflying]

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-toongabbie-119408443

Surely an issue if this 1700 odd sqm lot is selling for 10,000,000

lets say he had few too many!

 

[TMNT]

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-toongabbie-119408443

Surely an issue if this 1700 odd sqm lot is selling for 10,000,000

shoukd I withdraw my offer of $9.9million?

 

[mflying]

original listing

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-residential+land-nsw-toongabbie-201006787

page source

data-param-sub="toongabbie" data-param-price="1m_3m"

conclusion:

he meant 1 Mil

 

[mflying]

shoukd I withdraw my offer of $9.9million?

Do it already...or you will have to sell half of goulburn to pay off

 

[hobo-jo]

is conflicting to:

I cannot see both are going together.

The Sydney property market will crash if interest rate is more than 6%, but what happens if IR is going down bellow 1%, with A$ down to 60US cents, by year 2017?

Agree TGP (there is a clash there). I don't think rates will rise as quickly as sash has predicted, I would expect further cuts from here and would be surprised if they rose before 2017 (& if they did may see a quick reversal). Starting to raise them in mid 2016 would be around when I expect the worst fallout from the mining investment / car manufacturing demise, but maybe my timing is off or that scenario doesn't play out as badly as I expect.

I don't think Sydney necessarily needs to have rates going higher for the downturn to start which will begin when the last 'greater fool' has purchased and possibly in tandem with an oversupply of new housing.

 

[windyzz]

Interest rate wont be going up anytime soon... we're entering the beginning of Currency wars.. It will be low for quite some time, but of course this will create a very volatile economy in the future.....
Sigh....

 

[Reflex101]

I predict that NOBODY can possibly know what will happen in the future, much less WHEN it will happen.

If you bought well in the first place and treat every property like a stand alone business, then property prices should not be the main concern. I can't eat the equity unless I cash it in. If I cash it in then the investment has a finite life span!!

I am only interested in the income (CASH LEFT IN YOUR POCKET AFTER ALL HOLDING COSTS). Every good business spends less than it makes and ensures it has a product that will always be needed or at least desired.

Property investment is a business not a guessing game.

 

[Hooray]

I can't eat the equity unless I cash it in. If I cash it in then the investment has a finite life span!!

So refinancing is..... an illusion?

 

[TMNT]

Do it already...or you will have to sell half of goulburn to pay off

haha, touche!

 

[windyzz]

I predict that NOBODY can possibly know what will happen in the future, much less WHEN it will happen.

If you bought well in the first place and treat every property like a stand alone business, then property prices should not be the main concern. I can't eat the equity unless I cash it in. If I cash it in then the investment has a finite life span!!

I am only interested in the income (CASH LEFT IN YOUR POCKET AFTER ALL HOLDING COSTS). Every good business spends less than it makes and ensures it has a product that will always be needed or at least desired.

Property investment is a business not a guessing game.

Yup ur right... I guess as long as you have enough cash flow to service debt in the rough time, then you shouldn't be worry.

Unless there is world war 3 coming hahaha

 

[skater]

I think it was Skater bought in Sydney after 2003/04 boom and has managed to double and some from those purchases in Sydney.

I think I need to clarify that I DID NOT buy at the top of the market. I bought prior to the boom and as the market was on it's way down, for a price that was similar/lower than the median, around the bottom of the market after the boom. This was achieved via purchasing at Auction, when there was little/no competition from other bidders.