I'm pretty confident if someone did it, they'd probably come back with a fair bit of sourdough. Nothing excites my compatriots like some good ol' speculation.
Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019
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I'm pretty confident if someone did it, they'd probably come back with a fair bit of sourdough. Nothing excites my compatriots like some good ol' speculation.
^^^ This.
My best % CG performer has been my second - most 'B' grade property, which I would have called more a c or d grade at initial purchase. Though I've had bigger 'volume' of CG from other more a grade properties; I've never matched the sheer % CG growth for any other property.
To make that a fair call, I took the same 3-year sample period of time for all of my portfolio, and did the calcs on which produced the best % CG from purchase price to the first 3 years of ownership.
My St Marys, NSW unit came out on top. Definitely not an a grade!
I vote St Mary's A grade performer, BOOM CYCLE 2012+
I also vote most suburbs in Syd west during this period as grade A
Mtr
Listened to this podcast and it seems to align to the OP. It seems as though it is all doom and gloom for the Aussie economy for the forseeable future.
I'm wondering how some of the more experienced somersofters interpret such news and how it impacts their approach
Seems relatively objective - but interested in other thoughts
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/05/mb-radio-an-economy-to-remember/
Note: Just did a bit of researach and apparently this blog is about spreading 'doom and gloom' about Aussie property, but nonetheless the arguments seem valid - anyway take this with a grain of salt
I'm wondering how some of the more experienced somersofters interpret such news and how it impacts their approach
Seems relatively objective - but interested in other thoughts
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/05/mb-radio-an-economy-to-remember/
Note: Just did a bit of researach and apparently this blog is about spreading 'doom and gloom' about Aussie property, but nonetheless the arguments seem valid - anyway take this with a grain of salt
Macrobusiness have been posting doom and gloom for half a decade. In 2010 they said a property crash was inevitable, could not be avoided, and that house prices would fall in nominal terms for a decade. Five years later and prices are up.
You can see how badly they called things on this chart... http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Chart-Of-Shame-Q3-2014.png~original
When i first listened to the podcast i thought 'holy cow - the sky is falling' and then after i posted, i googled the authors of the podcast and realized that they were spreading doom and gloom.
what got me, was that their arguments seemed valid and rational so easy for a newbie like me to be impacted by their statements
what i am learning from this, is that if you invest wisely that you can limit your risk exposure however if your investment decisions are poor then you will be impacted somewhere later down the track (ie. High Density OTP $800k and 3% gross yield - YUCK)
I read some of the articles from macrobusiness because sometimes they have some interesting finance articles but most of the time they are doom and gloom merchants.
There are some writers on macrobusiness that are wanting a bust/recession real badly so they can by into real estate. If and when that happens they still won't have the balls to buy real estate because they are much happier just bagging us "rentseekers" as they call us property investors from a computer screen.
They are mainly frustrated uni students or office workers with too much time on their hands.
It's harder in this day and age for the market to crash because all the disgruntled office workers and students as you say are not in the market. When they're fully invested it'll crash like you wouldn't believe. Until then, happy investing.
Sounds a bit like here.
Like other people who have responded , I've occasionally read macro business over the last few years and shadow is spot on.
Perpetual gloom merchants . They've occasionally linked to interesting articles , but while they at first glance seem logical , they've never changed their tune and in the time I've been aware of them , they have constantly got it wrong ....
Read out of interest only , just to see what the perma Bears are saying .
Cliff
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Look at the property cycle trend.
But according to this pattern of the graph:
it is for real, Sydney will be going into downward cycle at the end of this year.
Therefore, we can always buy in Brisbane when the market is still lukewarm.
But according to this pattern of the graph:
it is for real, Sydney will be going into downward cycle at the end of this year.
Therefore, we can always buy in Brisbane when the market is still lukewarm.
Another interesting article with some good information however seems to sit on the fence with regards to where the property is at the moment
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/the-housing-bubble-explained-20150606-ghha4m.html
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/the-housing-bubble-explained-20150606-ghha4m.html
Crash is imminent.
Yes, that will explains the next few years price correction to 20 up to 30% below current value.
Yes, that will explains the next few years price correction to 20 up to 30% below current value.
But how come it is reaching $1m ?
this is crazy considering the wage is not that highly apprecaiting recently.
I agree. A lot of people need to live in a house because of their need for space, be it because of kids, vehicles or wives with bag and shoe collections. Anyone can live in a house but not everyone can live in a unit. For people who need the space, rental affordability changes where that house is located, not if a house is the right dwelling type to live in.
Ah I see, therefore as a newbie investor, I guess we'll have to stay away from suburbs with more than 50% investor or any suburbs with less than 50% Owner Occupier.
would that be make more sense ?
This data cen be extracted free from RPData and SQM Research page.
I would say alot of the people buying in the $1mil mark already own property in sydney and are just riding the wave. The same ones that bought over 10 years ago where they could afford and are now "upgrading".
Yes that is the people who are buying. We were one of those people that bought our PPOR earlier on in the year.
My wife and I bought two 2 bedroom apartments just after the GFC in the best place we could afford which was in the inner west and now we have upgraded and bought our PPOR on the lower north shore. We have kept these properties because they are positively geared.
At the open inspections we went to for our PPOR, everyone was like us - sort of like the ANZ advertisement where there are 2 families almost exactly the same but times that by about 60 parties at each open inspection. Young professional families that had bought wisely and upgrading. There were literally 8 prams outside one inspection we went to!
The advice I give to people getting into the Sydney market is to buy a 2 bedroom apartment in the best place you can afford. First home buyers are out of their mind if they think they can start off buying a house.
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