Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019

[sash]

My feeling is that Sydney is fully priced....when you mean middle suburbs are you saying places like Ryde?

Just remember units there were selling at the mid threes prior to the boom..only 3-4 years ago.

That means they have gone up 40-70%....that is crazy!

Sash you mentioned that investors will move into less expensive markets. Could Sydney units be a new target for an investor previously wanting a house? Can still grab a 2 bedder apartment in middle suburbs for 500-600k with decent yields.

Edit: what i meant to ask is do you think sydney units will peak later than sydney houses

 

[dajackal]

My feeling is that Sydney is fully priced....when you mean middle suburbs are you saying places like Ryde?

Just remember units there were selling at the mid threes prior to the boom..only 3-4 years ago.

That means they have gone up 40-70%....that is crazy!

The middle ring suburbs where most of my money is, like Eastwood, West Ryde, Homebush seem to have only gone up by about 30-35% since 2011.

Even hot suburbs like Marrickville only did about 38% since 2011.

Source: http://www.residex.com.au/free-report

 

[abdoug]

The middle ring suburbs where most of my money is, like Eastwood, West Ryde, Homebush seem to have only gone up by about 30-35% since 2011.

Even hot suburbs like Marrickville only did about 38% since 2011.

Source: http://www.residex.com.au/free-report

It's so trivially humorous to read "only 30-35% since 2011". I guess when you take things like that out of the Sydney context it really puts things into perspective.

 

[dajackal]

It's so trivially humorous to read "only 30-35% since 2011". I guess when you take things like that out of the Sydney context it really puts things into perspective.

"Only" when compared to Sash's 40-70%

 

[Tonibell]

North Ryde houses would have gone up about 35% in the last house.

I went to a couple of auctions recently because we were in the area and got a real shock (but a pleasant one).

Very tempted to take advantage of the current interest - but having issues getting over the tax amount.

 

[ej89]

Some of the most desirable places to live in Sydney are 40km from the cbd? Like where? Are they inherently desirable or simply relative to income?

Castle Hill, Kellyville, Bella Vista, The Ponds (also named as the most advantaged suburb in Australia), Rouse Hill, Beaumont Hills..

In Southwest Cecil Hills, Mt Vernon, Elizabeth Hills.

Not relative to income. Talking about quality of life and desirability to live there.

You're pretty much saying the closer you are to the city the more desirable your place is, which to me is false...the only time i'd wanna live within 10km of our CBD is if you get me into a suburb thats close to the water.. I'd take my house in Cecil Hills over the future slums of Zetlands or the shacks of Eastlakes

 

[JohnHenry]

Castle Hill, Kellyville, Bella Vista, The Ponds (also named as the most advantaged suburb in Australia), Rouse Hill, Beaumont Hills..

In Southwest Cecil Hills, Mt Vernon, Elizabeth Hills.

Not relative to income. Talking about quality of life and desirability to live there.

You're pretty much saying the closer you are to the city the more desirable your place is, which to me is false...the only time i'd wanna live within 10km of our CBD is if you get me into a suburb thats close to the water.. I'd take my house in Cecil Hills over the future slums of Zetlands or the shacks of Eastlakes

How is that becoming a slum ?

You clearly haven't been into East Village mate ;-) those are is growing to be better for sure.

 

[lilman]

Wayne & Danny The Hung

 

[windyzz]

Castle Hill, Kellyville, Bella Vista, The Ponds (also named as the most advantaged suburb in Australia), Rouse Hill, Beaumont Hills..

In Southwest Cecil Hills, Mt Vernon, Elizabeth Hills.

Not relative to income. Talking about quality of life and desirability to live there.

You're pretty much saying the closer you are to the city the more desirable your place is, which to me is false...the only time i'd wanna live within 10km of our CBD is if you get me into a suburb thats close to the water.. I'd take my house in Cecil Hills over the future slums of Zetlands or the shacks of Eastlakes

Yes some of the above are nice suburb particularly castle hills. But as I said house is not affordable even in those suburbs, and you can see the demographic are young family with young children not a young couple in their 20... Or low 30.

If you are looking at the next generation you'll find most of them will prefer living closer to CBD where transportation is readily available and a trendy area such as Alexandria, marrickville, Glebe, Newtown, etc.
It's pretty obvious go to those suburb on the weekend and you'll see lots of people in the late 20

 

[ej89]

Yes some of the above are nice suburb particularly castle hills. But as I said house is not affordable even in those suburbs, and you can see the demographic are young family with young children not a young couple in their 20... Or low 30.

If you are looking at the next generation you'll find most of them will prefer living closer to CBD where transportation is readily available and a trendy area such as Alexandria, marrickville, Glebe, Newtown, etc.
It's pretty obvious go to those suburb on the weekend and you'll see lots of people in the late 20

Then they'll have to come out to the suburbs right next to the most desirable outer suburbs in 5 years when they have two kids because they decided to buy a unit where they wanna live rather than a house where they'll live in 10 years for the same price but without an extra 1k of strata a quarter . Not enough forward thinking in my generation imo.. There are always gonna be that minority who will want small units and no kids though..

With the emergence of Parramatta and satellite suburbs/cities around Sydney, there are gonna be less demand for wanting to live just close to Sydney cbd compared to what there used to be as the Sydney CBD won't be the be all end all. There's demand around all other centres providing jobs and opportunities and within those satellite cities come very affordable and desirable suburbs..

Like I said, if you can get me close to water I'll love being close to the cbd, if not, keep me far far away..

 

[wombat777]

Castle Hill, Kellyville, Bella Vista, The Ponds (also named as the most advantaged suburb in Australia), Rouse Hill, Beaumont Hills..

In Southwest Cecil Hills, Mt Vernon, Elizabeth Hills.

Not relative to income. Talking about quality of life and desirability to live there.

You're pretty much saying the closer you are to the city the more desirable your place is, which to me is false...the only time i'd wanna live within 10km of our CBD is if you get me into a suburb thats close to the water.. I'd take my house in Cecil Hills over the future slums of Zetlands or the shacks of Eastlakes

In terms of desirability of new suburbs in the north-west, the releases at Box Hill will be interesting to watch. One of the nice aspects of that area is the rolling tree-lined hills. This will be another master-planned area I believe and one where they will hopefully retain many of the large established trees.

Some of the areas around Riverstone, Schofields and Marsden Park were largely more open farmland and hence far-fewer trees to break up the suburbia.

I took myself for a drive out through Mardsen Park on the weekend. The area is flatter and therefore in my opinion more boring visually.

One issue with Box Hill though is the Pet Food Plant located on the ridge to the south-west of Windsor Road. The smell of rendered meat is not pleasant. I used to cycle past it regularly. When the wind is blowing in the wrong direction, the smell wafts into the older part of Rouse Hill near the Shell Service-station. Hopefully that will eventually be swallowed up by suburbia.

Back on-topic, there are H&L packages selling at over $1mill near Bunnings on Annangrove Road. A 45 minute walk to the Town Centre and in Rouse Hill by a whisker. This land is farmland currently. The sales office is just a guy sitting in his car by a barbed-wire farm fence on a narrow country lane.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-rouse+hill-119747247
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-rouse+hill-119747107

 

[ej89]

In terms of desirability of new suburbs in the north-west, the releases at Box Hill will be interesting to watch. One of the nice aspects of that area is the rolling tree-lined hills. This will be another master-planned area I believe and one where they will hopefully retain many of the large established trees.

Some of the areas around Riverstone, Schofields and Marsden Park were largely more open farmland and hence far-fewer trees to break up the suburbia.

I took myself for a drive out through Mardsen Park on the weekend. The area is flatter and therefore in my opinion more boring visually.

One issue with Box Hill though is the Pet Food Plant located on the ridge to the south-west of Windsor Road. The smell of rendered meat is not pleasant. I used to cycle past it regularly. When the wind is blowing in the wrong direction, the smell wafts into the older part of Rouse Hill near the Shell Service-station. Hopefully that will eventually be swallowed up by suburbia.

Back on-topic, there are H&L packages selling at over $1mill near Bunnings on Annangrove Road. A 45 minute walk to the Town Centre and in Rouse Hill by a whisker. This land is farmland currently. The sales office is just a guy sitting in his car by a barbed-wire farm fence on a narrow country lane.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-rouse+hill-119747247
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-rouse+hill-119747107

Well they're trying to charge a premium for it cause it comes under Hills council.. It's gonna look great imo but it's actually a little further into Box Hill rather than being attached to windsor rd. The whole place will be great when it's done in 5-10 years with business park and shops too. Whatever they sell there has to be cheaper than rest of NW cause its completely undeveloped and not as good a location as others.. Marsden Park has views of the Mountains which is nice whereas Riverstone and Schofields have a view of the ponds hahaha.. Stockland shouldve put a massive lake in there. Wouldve looked great.

Funniest thing I saw not long ago was an estate called "The Ponds View" in Schofields. It had a view of The Ponds high school haha the stuff companies come up with because they know of the obsession about that suburb is funny

 

[sanj]

Ponds is a badly located, soulless subdivision lacking infrastructure that feels like you're in something out of a generic american movie.

http://m.news.domain.com.au/domain/...-myth-of-a-suburban-oasis-20130330-2h059.html

Kellyvilles claim to fame is that it once had the world's largest display home village.

We clearly like very different things.

 

[JohnHenry]

Ponds is a badly located, soulless subdivision lacking infrastructure that feels like you're in something out of a generic american movie.

http://m.news.domain.com.au/domain/...-myth-of-a-suburban-oasis-20130330-2h059.html

Kellyvilles claim to fame is that it once had the world's largest display home village.

We clearly like very different things.

Sanj,

But how come the ponds is now an expansive suburbs ?
The display homes in the Ponds build by McDonald Jones has been sold out in the first day and then rented for the next 4 years according to the sales woman.

This is so profitable suburbs when bought OTP.

 

[sash]

I think you will find the increase is much larger lets test my theory.see property below.if someone has RP Data please feel free to confirm the figures...i feel that this one would have been worth around 600k in 2011...it is now on the market for 950k plus will probably crack a million. That represents a 58% gain.....

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-nsw-eastwood-119688927

The middle ring suburbs where most of my money is, like Eastwood, West Ryde, Homebush seem to have only gone up by about 30-35% since 2011.

Even hot suburbs like Marrickville only did about 38% since 2011.

Source: http://www.residex.com.au/free-report

 

[sash]

Are you kidding me?...places like Newtown ..Marrickville are now bluechip suburbs.

As for Pazzamatta and the Hills becoming the centre of the universe I can't see this happening...sure they will become better solid upper middle class but thats it.

Let me guess...you come from the subcontinent don't you?

With the emergence of Parramatta and satellite suburbs/cities around Sydney, there are gonna be less demand for wanting to live just close to Sydney cbd compared to what there used to be as the Sydney CBD won't be the be all end all. There's demand around all other centres providing jobs and opportunities and within those satellite cities come very affordable and desirable suburbs..

Like I said, if you can get me close to water I'll love being close to the cbd, if not, keep me far far away..

 

[windyzz]

Then they'll have to come out to the suburbs right next to the most desirable outer suburbs in 5 years when they have two kids because they decided to buy a unit where they wanna live rather than a house where they'll live in 10 years for the same price but without an extra 1k of strata a quarter . Not enough forward thinking in my generation imo.. There are always gonna be that minority who will want small units and no kids though..

With the emergence of Parramatta and satellite suburbs/cities around Sydney, there are gonna be less demand for wanting to live just close to Sydney cbd compared to what there used to be as the Sydney CBD won't be the be all end all. There's demand around all other centres providing jobs and opportunities and within those satellite cities come very affordable and desirable suburbs..

Like I said, if you can get me close to water I'll love being close to the cbd, if not, keep me far far away..

I don't know I could be wrong with this though... But I'm seeing more and more young family downsizing To an apartment or choose to live in apartment altogether, especially as house become more and more expensive.

I once watched Bryce Holdway (empowered wealth) video where there are the studies shows that older generation preferred a land and house but this trend is slowly diminishing with the new coming generation. Where lifestyle is preferred. And I fully agreed. I used to live in a house and I hated it, don't like spending weekend maintaining garden and cleaning up the house. Now living in a small apartment. 3 min walk away to station it's just perfect.

I think in the coming future apartment living in a good location close by to amenities will be the new thing.

 

[JohnHenry]

I don't know I could be wrong with this though... But I'm seeing more and more young family downsizing To an apartment or choose to live in apartment altogether, especially as house become more and more expensive.

I once watched Bryce Holdway (empowered wealth) video where there are the studies shows that older generation preferred a land and house but this trend is slowly diminishing with the new coming generation. Where lifestyle is preferred. And I fully agreed. I used to live in a house and I hated it, don't like spending weekend maintaining garden and cleaning up the house. Now living in a small apartment. 3 min walk away to station it's just perfect.

I think in the coming future apartment living in a good location close by to amenities will be the new thing.

Wind,

If that is the case, then who will buy the house in the future let say next 50 years when the Gen X people passed away ?

There will be major crash in house price if no one willing to live in it anymore.

 

[jerrybee]

I once watched Bryce Holdway (empowered wealth) video where there are the studies shows that older generation preferred a land and house but this trend is slowly diminishing with the new coming generation. Where lifestyle is preferred. And I fully agreed. I used to live in a house and I hated it, don't like spending weekend maintaining garden and cleaning up the house. Now living in a small apartment. 3 min walk away to station it's just perfect.

I think in the coming future apartment living in a good location close by to amenities will be the new thing.

But where will they build these apartments? They still need land. At the end of the day, big, well positioned blocks will always be worth $$$, whether you leave a house on it, or sell it to a high rise developer.

 

[windyzz]

Wind,

If that is the case, then who will buy the house in the future let say next 50 years when the Gen X people passed away ?

There will be major crash in house price if no one willing to live in it anymore.

I think houses closed to transport and shops will slowly be rezoned and developer will be buying those.

There will still be people that are not working in CBD be living in the outer suburb. But I think the CBD will be converted to more and more high rise.