sydney north market predictions in the short term?

[my03]

Hey guys, I just wanted to hear your opinions and thoughts on where the north shore 2br market would be going in the short term.

Looking at an entry for my first home, but am a bit nervouse to get in with all the noise about the market.

I'm looking at buying somewhere along the train line, from pymble to north sydney, looking at a 2br with a budget of 450k.

I've noticed that there are options from Pymble up to Roseville in that price range, and occasionally, Crows Nest and Artarmon as well.

For the bulls, I think there is a good demand for these types of properties from higher income earners and strong demand from overseas buyers- Chinese investors or Chinese parents with kids studying here, or asian immigrants who are quite cashed up. etc

For the bears we have FHB grants and stamp duty exemptions which are getting reduced which may have previously inflated the market, thus reducing demand. Also our economic outlook isnt looking so great particularly in the finance sector, so these people employed in these sectors may be taking a hit.

What also makes me more nervous is how over priced some of these "luxury"or "boutique"appartments are...500k for a 1br? serious? not to mention a fair few appartments coming on the market or due for completion in Artarmon and St. Leonards. The higher the price, the higher the fall.

Just wanted to gather your thoughts on the north shore market and any analysis. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Obviously as a first home I would like some capital growth, and any decrease in capital value would hurt. So im just treading carefully here.

Cheers

 

[Propertunity]

Hey guys, I just wanted to hear your opinions and thoughts on where the north shore 2br market would be going in the short term.

UP!, then flat, then down a bit, then up...again.

Looking at an entry for my first home, but am a bit nervouse to get in with all the noise about the market.

If you are going to be a successful investor, then you have to stop listening to media 'noise'. Take a calm considered approach to things, look at your risk management strategies, have a buffer in place, work out the worst case scenario (knowing that worst case scenarios only happen about 5% of the time) and make a decision - one way or the other.

If you are your own worst enemy (i.e. procrantinator or over analyser or want to shrink back when you know you need to step out), then consider getting professional help from a trusted advisor, mortgage broker, solicitor, fellow investor friend/mentor, or dare I say it, BA - but only the ones who are doing or have done what you want to achieve.

I'm looking at buying somewhere along the train line, from pymble to north sydney, looking at a 2br with a budget of 450k.

Good idea.

For the bulls, I think there is a good demand for these types of properties from higher income earners and strong demand from overseas buyers- Chinese investors or Chinese parents with kids studying here, or asian immigrants who are quite cashed up. etc

And the Chinese are going to be more .....or less......involved in the future? The answer to that Q, should give you a hint of what to do.

For the bears we have FHB grants and stamp duty exemptions which are getting reduced which may have previously inflated the market, thus reducing demand.

The 'boosts' have been removed years ago and the market did not fall as the bears predicted at the time. SD exemptions have not had an impact on the market from where I am looking, however, agents are reporting that stock on the market is selling now, whereas it was not selling before (300 days on market etc). This is typical novice FHBs buying in a panic and buy sub-optimal property, IMO.

Also our economic outlook isnt looking so great particularly in the finance sector, so these people employed in these sectors may be taking a hit.

In a full RE cycle, there will be recessions, economic booms, mining booms, mining busts, property booms, property busts, Labour governments, Liberal government, planes that crash into buildings, and stuff that happens in life just generally. What are you going to do everytime things go for the worse? Sell? Do you only invest when times are good and everyone else thinks the same and wants a piece of the same pie? Take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

What also makes me more nervous is how over priced some of these "luxury"or "boutique"appartments are...500k for a 1br? serious? not to mention a fair few appartments coming on the market or due for completion in Artarmon and St. Leonards.

They make me nervous too - so stay away from new developments. But also remember that these new developments will be old developments in 10 years time.

The higher the price, the higher the fall.

That, with all due respect, is a load of bunk!

..... as a first home I would like some capital growth, and any decrease in capital value would hurt.

If you cannot withstand the ups and downs of any investment, then do not invest. There are no guaranteed investments. Over a full cycle you will see the value of your investment rise, fall and go flat from time to time. This is the nature of the investment.

You don't get anywhere in life being timid. Man up.

 

[Ideo]

There is always going to be demand for 2 bedroom units a 10-15 minute train ride from the city.

For me as a first home the ones around Artarmon/Crows Nest/Nrth Sydney (older style 2 bedders) would be the ones to go for. Value add over time.

Strata fees tend to be lower on older style bare basics blocks than for you-beaut overseas investor specials new build blocks.

 

[Marty McDonald]

I believe at least one well respected property economists is saying older style units will outperform the newer ones.

 

[MIW]

Knowlede will minimise the risks you take!

Hey guys, I just wanted to hear your opinions and thoughts on where the north shore 2br market would be going in the short term.

Looking at an entry for my first home, but am a bit nervouse to get in with all the noise about the market.

I'm looking at buying somewhere along the train line, from pymble to north sydney, looking at a 2br with a budget of 450k.

I've noticed that there are options from Pymble up to Roseville in that price range, and occasionally, Crows Nest and Artarmon as well.

For the bulls, I think there is a good demand for these types of properties from higher income earners and strong demand from overseas buyers- Chinese investors or Chinese parents with kids studying here, or asian immigrants who are quite cashed up. etc

For the bears we have FHB grants and stamp duty exemptions which are getting reduced which may have previously inflated the market, thus reducing demand. Also our economic outlook isnt looking so great particularly in the finance sector, so these people employed in these sectors may be taking a hit.

What also makes me more nervous is how over priced some of these "luxury"or "boutique"appartments are...500k for a 1br? serious? not to mention a fair few appartments coming on the market or due for completion in Artarmon and St. Leonards. The higher the price, the higher the fall.

Just wanted to gather your thoughts on the north shore market and any analysis. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Obviously as a first home I would like some capital growth, and any decrease in capital value would hurt. So im just treading carefully here.

Cheers

Propertunity sounded like the best answers to me. But to add just few of my points.
Get educated on investments, be positive (well you can once you have more knowledge), buy against the trends (not when everyone is buying - the herd mentality) so it's great to buy now.....
Capital decline hurts only when you realise it, when you sell it, so if it's to be your PPOR, and you don't plan to sell, and even if propety values fall (usually slightly), why do you care (you have not made loss - only on paper)?
Similar advice, buying close to infrastructure (train), in good location to jobs (north shore & CBD), at below or about median price for the area, in a smaller and older complex of units (less ougoings for any leives that may arise). Just do your due diligence and check the place is structually sound and go for it, then 10 years down the track let me know the value and your result.....
If you are worried on purchase price then get an independant valuation.
No one has a crystal ball with any investment but knowledge minimises the risk you take.
I would suggest that property is less volatile than stock market so how much can you loose (purchasing costs, 5-10% value...), not 40-50% like in stock market. Read some books on IP.....

 

[see_change]

In terms of 500 for a one bedder

We've got an offer in on a one bedder at just under 600. but some are " worth it " and others may not be.

IMHO the bottom end of the north shore is unlikely to go down to any major extent. If any part of that market goes down if things go pear shape it's the top end and I've seen that happen.

cliff