The future of Emerald Qld.

Hi Everyone….rather new to all this so be gentle. Just wanted to get peoples opinion or thoughts on what’s happening in the Bowen Basin and in particular, Emerald. I’m sure that for some of you investing in areas heavily reliant on the resources industry brings with it a higher exposure to risk however, there will be some of you, like myself, who find themselves examining the financial statements of particular resource rich companies and following their progress from exploration of tenements right up to the first shipment…I certainly have become a bit of a backyard expert in the mineral resources industry.

I, probably like some of you, have a vested interest in the fortunes of towns like Emerald. Property investors in such resource rich areas have weathered the downturn conditions of the GFC, the impact and uncertainty of the Super Profits Tax and indeed the added uncertainty of the election result among other issues.

There has been considerable hype about a future Queensland resources boom. Emerald is tipped to be one of the big winners from the Alpha project in the Galilee Basin. Emerald appears to have developed itself into a regional hub for other smaller towns in the Bowen Basin.

And, Emerald now appears to have a number of developments happening right on its doorstep. Newland Resources Ltd has purchased the rights to a number of tenements including EPC1580 and EPC1801 in Emerald itself and EPC1720 and EPC1230 just a short distance away. Stanmore Coal has also purchased a number of tenements in and around Emerald (EPC1168) some of which are adjacent to large thermal and coking coal deposits already being mined such as the Ensham open cut mine (EPC1114).

http://www.cqnews.com.au/story/2010/07/09/emerald-sold-to-coal-explorer/

http://www.stanmorecoal.com.au/projects_emerald.aspx

One of the advantages to property investors in places such as Emerald is that these tenements can prevent the spread of further housing development thus protecting the scarcity of viable property. Emerald is also prone to flooding and I see some new properties, not all, may be affected. The last flood being 2008.

I wanted to contribute some of this DD I’ve picked up but also wanted to throw the discussion open to anyone like myself that has interest in Emerald and its progress.

Jack
 
Company I work for has just been awarded project 1.5hrs from Emerald.

Currently flying in there, although we are looking at hiring charter planes to fly directly into mine.

Workforce increasing to 220 in a couple of months.

Two camps in dysart and Middlemount will be packed.

Company trying to move me to Emerald, but I like the Sunny Coast too much!!

F
 
Having lived there up until May for 12 months here are my thoughts.

- Rental supply is quite tight and yields can be good
- There is plenty of council land still to be released
- Not much margin in build and sell as all the builders are backlogged doing their own developments and can charge what they like.
- Has already experienced substantial growth in the last 5 -10 years.

Not to be said there isn't money to be made, just harder than it was a few years ago.

My strategy would be to look for yield..

My 2c
 
emerald has grown alot over 10 years

I wouldn't buy there if you paid me blackwater/emerald etc

one thing I would be interested in is the 20 room motel which as far as I know is still for sale freehold at 1.25mill with over 200k return

banks don't want to lend on things like this anymore....

emerald/dysart/middlemount/blackwater etc are way over priced middlemount dysart pretty small towns what are you going to do when in 10 years

the mine shuts down which they all do over this span even if for a few months and lay off a heap of workers happened not long a go a 30 year old mine house is not worth over 400k IMHO no matter the return to high risk no thankyou.

I would buy if the houses were reasonable priced and could support the rent without the mines rent is about $250 a week without a company contract.

I have friends in these areas and since the GFC they have there houses still empty for over 12months
 
Last edited:
Risks investing in the commodities environment should always be considered and I can certainly understand peoples trepidation. However, depending on your accepted risk levels backed up with sufficient DD these risks can be hedged against. However, James I understand your point of view.

Anyone else who may be interested in investing in the Bowen/Surat basins have a look at some positives.

http://www.smartcompany.com.au/property/20100719-mining-towns-back-on-the-radar.html

Interesting reading, JT
 
$100mill upgade and expansion to their shopping centre just approved this week...........

Personally i would never buy there....I know the area very well.

High risk= high rewards...but that's not the way I operate.

Each to their own....

Safer options for rentals and long term captial growth at the Capricorn Coast in my opinion...
 
I will have to apologize as i cannot find the approval news item anywhere...I heard it on WIN News but cannot find anything about it on their website..maybe I misheard the deal being approved.I am absolutely dumbstruck about this but havnt given up looking for it quite yet.....I need a rum i think.......
 
No worries csc2 we got time. And that is the best idea I've heard all day....a rum can that is! Great minds.....
 
By the way...Fudge and tgarthe thanks for your thoughts. It's always valuable getting the opinions of the blokes working on the ground.

Now that rum can....
 
Hi JT7,

I am a big Fan of the Bowen Basin.

Purchased two properties up in Moranbah in 2007 & 2008 after doing a thorough due diligence. I have satisified my thirst for information. And believe that there is a lot of growth to be had - atleast another 25-30 years of a good run.

Just look at the global picture. The world NEEDS Coal. In humungous quantities. To fire up the Generators that provide electricity to nearly 2/3rds of the 6.5 billion population (and growing). And to make Steel. And Cement manufacturing. And where does this all come from?

Australia is the single Largest Net Exporter & has around one-tenth of the world’s recoverable black coal resources and ranks behind USA (31%), Russia (21%), China (13%), India (8%) and South Africa (7%). Reserves to Production for Australia indicate a resource life of more than 90 years.

Note that countries like China & India are nett importers of Coal inspite of being high producers. They have a voracious appetite. Nearly 20 Adelaides are being built each year in China alone. And the pace is not slowing as younger Rural population are moving into Urban cities for better job prospects, lifestyle. Urbanisation has touched only fraction of the population, as yet.

Bon appétit....!

China, India, Brazil, Russia and all the other developing economies of South America and Africa need NEW roads, airports, dams, buses, cars, etc etc. And existing developed nations (like Japan one of the largest importers of Australian Coal) need to keep the electricity generators running.

And I see one common denominator amongst all this: Coal.

And where is the coal from in Australia - NSW (40%) & QLD (57%). New South Wales and Queensland remained the main producing States with around 97% of Australia's saleable output of black coal, and 100% of Australia's black coal exports.

And if it is from QLD, it comes with the "Made in Bowen Basin" tag on it :D


_
 
In and Around Moranbah (Isaac):

MINING OPERATIONS (2009) - 39
30 Coal mines (mainly large multi-seam open cut / draglines)
1 Mineral mine (earthy dolomite)
5 medium to large size Quarries (aggregate for construction industry)
3 Gas production sites

MINING PROJECTS - 28
9 Expansions (coal)
19 New (includes 1 mineral)

UNDEVELOPED RESOURCES – next 20 years
Mineral resources (gold, copper, molybdenum, earthy dolomite)
5 billion tonnes of coal in Northern Bowen Basin with large amounts of CSG
 
Looks like I misheard the news report as per my previous posts.

Last news item i have is here: http://www.themorningbulletin.com.a...-giants-bring-out-the-big-bucks-in-battle-fo/


Emerald will survive long after the coal industry winds down as its always been a rural based twon supporting farmers but as for many of the other towns: moranbah, middlemount, tiari etc they will become ghost towns in years to come.....we maybe all old or dead but this is a certainty when coal is no longer a huge commodity..........
 
Hi Gentle_Chief,

once again great post mate. I'm also very bullish about the future of these markets in the Bowen Basin. As you've indicated mining activities in the Bowen Basin are strengthening on the back of China's insatiable appetite for coal. However, as you've indicated its not just China stoking the fire, so to speak.

The University of Queensland published a fantastic research paper entitled 'Coal and the Commonwealth'. I've pasted the link below for you GC and anybody else interested. GC from the information you've provided it appears you may have already read this publication but may give others an insight into whats going on.

I think Moranbah is going to sky-rocket GC.

The 'Best rents report March 2010' published by Residex have nominated Moranbah alongside Blackwater as two high capital growth high yielding areas.

The good news for Emerald is that it neighbours Blackwater and all three areas have seen very similar growth patterns. High growth (boom) 2003-2006. Consolidation period 2006-2010.

With resources at such high prices and at such huge demand and with massive infrastucture development only just starting to come on line...things look very healthy.

Have a read below.


http://www.eait.uq.edu.au/docs/Publications/Coal and the Commonwealth_FINAL_lores.pdf
 
Emerald will survive long after the coal industry winds down as its always been a rural based twon supporting farmers but as for many of the other towns: moranbah, middlemount, tiari etc they will become ghost towns in years to come.....we maybe all old or dead but this is a certainty when coal is no longer a huge commodity..........

Hi csc2 thanks for the link.

Yes...I think you do bring up a very valid point.

I wanted to be involved in what was happening in the Bowen Basin and for those reasons you stated above I put my money into Emerald.

However, I think you can mitigate against these risks if you have an exit plan which is something GC I'm sure will have. GC has timed his run extremely well and now he will reap the benefits I'm sure.

3-4 years of high CG holding a property + cashflow or + geared (depending on finance) can be a sure fire way to fast track your wealth creation.

JT
 
Yep cant see any major risk medium term in those places I mentioned unless the butt of coal per tonne falls out...

I have also noticed in the local rags up this way also have marked increase in employment adverts for all areas out west...a very good sign indeed which brings me back to a post i made several weeks ago regarding Yeppoon, Kinka Beach, Emu Park and Zilzie as a serious opportunity to look at down the track............current markets in those areas is down a little, perhaps 10%...Most sellers are intent on not lowering their prices but this will change soon enough in my opinion if rates start to head north....

Yeppoon area is looking a huge population growth over the next 30 years, its already well and truely started..

I had a few negative comments previously about the area but take it from me this place will go gangbusters when the markets heads in a positive direction again...........there is plenty happening behind the scenes down there...i know of several developers who have been land banking recently in areas like Kinka Beach for both residential and light business....

The old sea change for people is far from finished along the east coast...and why not...fly in fly out from Rocky which is 30 minutes away.

ive put my money where my mouth is and have purchased land and property there in the previous 12 mths.....I happy to sit until i fall off my perch in that area...

Best of luck...
 
Yep cant see any major risk medium term in those places I mentioned unless the butt of coal per tonne falls out...

I have also noticed in the local rags up this way also have marked increase in employment adverts for all areas out west...a very good sign indeed which brings me back to a post i made several weeks ago regarding Yeppoon, Kinka Beach, Emu Park and Zilzie as a serious opportunity to look at down the track............current markets in those areas is down a little, perhaps 10%...Most sellers are intent on not lowering their prices but this will change soon enough in my opinion if rates start to head north....

Yeppoon area is looking a huge population growth over the next 30 years, its already well and truely started..

I had a few negative comments previously about the area but take it from me this place will go gangbusters when the markets heads in a positive direction again...........there is plenty happening behind the scenes down there...i know of several developers who have been land banking recently in areas like Kinka Beach for both residential and light business....

The old sea change for people is far from finished along the east coast...and why not...fly in fly out from Rocky which is 30 minutes away.

ive put my money where my mouth is and have purchased land and property there in the previous 12 mths.....I happy to sit until i fall off my perch in that area...

Best of luck...

The comments werent that negative but ones against toogoom/hervey bay certainly were.

FYI yeah yeppoon maybe good long term,
I know that business in the area certainly aren't doing to crash hot in the yeppoon area atm...

and prices have come down alot since the GFC in yeppoon for land they were 200k a block not so long ago.

certain development there still has quite a few blocks around the 140k mark and havent moved them in almost 2 years..

take it how you want I would still rather buy outskirts of rocky over yeppoon

which I have done in the past several times.

I see hervey bay in the top 10 but not yeppoon why is that have good day cs2:p
 
Back
Top