tough times ahead
- Thread starter Shaneelastic
- Start date
An interesting thread… lots of mixed views depending on peoples personal experiences but ‘ground evidence’ cannot be ignored I think – if everybody in Australia contributed to this thread and we stood a long way away and squinted our eyes we’d see either a positive or a negative sentiment emerging.
Of course, that’s what we get when we look at the share market. The recent wild fluctuations tell me that we don’t really know which way we’re headed.
My observations – there’s plenty of money rattling around Perth (as usual). Professional services industry related to resources is on the up (along with wages).
I also hear anecdotal evidence that residential construction is suffering… but then I’m currently looking for a builder for some renovations/ additions and struggling to find anyone that cares enough to even submit a price (and had one decline yesterday).
???
Welcome to Perth!
Of course, that’s what we get when we look at the share market. The recent wild fluctuations tell me that we don’t really know which way we’re headed.
My observations – there’s plenty of money rattling around Perth (as usual). Professional services industry related to resources is on the up (along with wages).
I also hear anecdotal evidence that residential construction is suffering… but then I’m currently looking for a builder for some renovations/ additions and struggling to find anyone that cares enough to even submit a price (and had one decline yesterday).
???
Welcome to Perth!
I know the feeling.
We built last year and had a family member who is a builder do the finishing works at market prices. He hardly returned our calls, things were always delayed. When he didn't do the work on the time we agreed he simply turned his phone off for the 2 or 3 week xmas break (can't remember how long but it was long enough to annoy me) It was bordering on pure arrogance. Why do they all shut down over xmas, I am sure other industries don't.
We even caught up with them at dinner one night and he refused to talk about it.
It might be the old saying not to do business with family because if it is not a good experience you cant complain.
You seem to forget that for 20yrs WA and it's mining was a ball and chain dragging the economy down.
Do you have a library out there in them hills? Check them ole newspapers.
But according to Juliar and all her cohorts; we are enjoying this wonderful economic climate and low unemployment.
This time last year, I had 3 employees (automotive), now I have 1.5, and payment plans with my best friends at the ATO coming out of my keester....like a poultice of some of my other friends in business.
Forget subliminal hints about how much we're worth by bragging about how much we're saving on the latest rate cut; our pi..ss..ing contest is about the size of our Payment Plans!!
I didn't even mention WA.
Anyway, since you bought it up, when for the last 100 years has WA dragged the rest of the country down. That's crap. So you better show some proof.
Australia has always been a commodity exporting nation. Even 200 years ago. WA has always had a low population and a lot of commodities to export. Even 10 years ago when commodities were not worth much, we still weren't a manufacturing nation, it was still commodities that paid the bills and supported our service industries.
See ya's.
Bayview,
Aren't interest rate reductions great!!! Love....it...in a period of a months just put 7k in my pocket instead of those pesky b(err w)ankers.
Hey can relate to payment plans...apparently because I made too much CF from properties...the ATO in their infinite wisdom have hit me with a pesky some of PAYG $800 p/qtr....gave them a spray when they wanted to charge interest because it was late. I told them I would be better off leaving my job and go on the dole....that way they would lose the 60k in PAYE income tax. The quickly made an agreement that no penalties and gave an extension on my late tax return!! I did usual going off my nut with govt bureaucrats.
Aren't interest rate reductions great!!! Love....it...in a period of a months just put 7k in my pocket instead of those pesky b(err w)ankers.
Hey can relate to payment plans...apparently because I made too much CF from properties...the ATO in their infinite wisdom have hit me with a pesky some of PAYG $800 p/qtr....gave them a spray when they wanted to charge interest because it was late. I told them I would be better off leaving my job and go on the dole....that way they would lose the 60k in PAYE income tax. The quickly made an agreement that no penalties and gave an extension on my late tax return!!
I did usual going off my nut with govt bureaucrats.This time last year, I had 3 employees (automotive), now I have 1.5, and payment plans with my best friends at the ATO coming out of my keester....like a poultice of some of my other friends in business.
Forget subliminal hints about how much we're worth by bragging about how much we're saving on the latest rate cut; our pi..ss..ing contest is about the size of our Payment Plans!!
and this is what every business does each quarter anyway........
some light!
WA had a gold rush like Bendigo, WA rode the sheep's back with wool, WA exports a massive amount of wheat, WA exports a fair amount of livestock, there's more gas off the NW shelf being discovered every day - and that's outside U238, Ag, Au, Fe, Pb, Cu, Zn, Ta, Mg etc etc....
Bayview,
Aren't interest rate reductions great!!! Love....it...in a period of a months just put 7k in my pocket instead of those pesky b(err w)ankers.
Hey can relate to payment plans...apparently because I made too much CF from properties...the ATO in their infinite wisdom have hit me with a pesky some of PAYG $800 p/qtr....gave them a spray when they wanted to charge interest because it was late. I told them I would be better off leaving my job and go on the dole....that way they would lose the 60k in PAYE income tax. The quickly made an agreement that no penalties and gave an extension on my late tax return!!
A 0.25% cut put $7k in your pocket in one month?
Based on my pesky b(err w)anker calculation, one would need approximately $34 million home loans to achieve that. That sure is a lot of debt
MF,
I know plenty here get pretty frustrated with talk about money supply but I think broad money growth is as much a symptom of asset price appreciation as asset price appreciation is of broad money growth.
When asset prices fall broad money falls and it takes massive money printing efforts like in the US to keep broad money on the level and prevent deflation. Government are capable of doing this but I would not say there is any golden rule that broad money will keep rising year on year. If prices of assets fall broad money will tend to contract hence the relationship.
Why has he also not mentioned costs of production? For me in a growing area if you can purchase at below costs of production in the long run you will come out ahead. For the place to grow new homes have to be built. for that to happen the price of other houses has to rise to this level. I know it seems patently obvious (well it does to me?) but surely this is the long term driver of the housing market?
Sure; what drives wages and other costs of production, money supply which sets inflation but looking at this means you are using an tailing indicator. You might as well use house prices itself to guage where house prices are heading...
I know plenty here get pretty frustrated with talk about money supply but I think broad money growth is as much a symptom of asset price appreciation as asset price appreciation is of broad money growth.
When asset prices fall broad money falls and it takes massive money printing efforts like in the US to keep broad money on the level and prevent deflation. Government are capable of doing this but I would not say there is any golden rule that broad money will keep rising year on year. If prices of assets fall broad money will tend to contract hence the relationship.
Why has he also not mentioned costs of production? For me in a growing area if you can purchase at below costs of production in the long run you will come out ahead. For the place to grow new homes have to be built. for that to happen the price of other houses has to rise to this level. I know it seems patently obvious (well it does to me?) but surely this is the long term driver of the housing market?
Sure; what drives wages and other costs of production, money supply which sets inflation but looking at this means you are using an tailing indicator. You might as well use house prices itself to guage where house prices are heading...
Hi
Just wondering what everyone thinks of this article?
Maybe it isn't tough times ahead!
http://www.investorsdirect.com.au/articles/what-lies-ahead.html
Welcome Mark! As Marketing Director at Investors Direct, I am sure you will get good insight from the more serious property investors on SS.
You've probably said that from day one and haven't made a cent off it right?
Thanks Buzz
Hey Buzz, thanks.. that's exactly what I was looking for.. insights, comments, stuff. I'm new to this so wanna see what people think.
cheers
Mark
Hey Buzz, thanks.. that's exactly what I was looking for.. insights, comments, stuff. I'm new to this so wanna see what people think.
cheers
Mark
That is per anum.....most of it is base on rate cuts and one on cut on an expiring higher rate conversion.
A 0.25% cut put $7k in your pocket in one month?
Based on my pesky b(err w)anker calculation, one would need approximately $34 million home loans to achieve that. That sure is a lot of debt
So question need to be asked??
Mark are you saying you are new to the property investment game??
That would beg another question...then how you are the Marketing Director for Investors Direct???
Mark are you saying you are new to the property investment game??
That would beg another question...then how you are the Marketing Director for Investors Direct???
Brian Welch Director of the MBAV says at least in Victoria, government policy related decisions are causing building cost increases, not withstanding the price of land.
But I am guessing the increases in the price of land has far outstripped the increases of the costs to build over the past 15-20 years.
