Tsunami' to hit Australian real estate

[Deltaberry]

yes, tearing up debts he reckons will see less supply of USD? if that's the gist of it, would you really want USD? Sounds like "invest some dollars with this guy because he is about to go bankrupt so will soon be debt free"

No the point was in a global meltdown, funds will be pulled out of speculative currencies.

Which do you think is the speculative currency?

A$ or US$?

Hmm let's see... the A$ is only at a historical high post-float, that's not speculation, just long-term trend. As always, perspective is power - though I still can't tell which way the world will go though I can tell you the metropolitan market here is certainly going down last time I went to auctions (which was last week and the week before).

 

[Sunfish]

As i see it, sentiment drives prices of all but the basics of life, and even they suffer short term, illogical, reversals.

If/When sentiment changes here, prices can drop and anyone who thinks they can nominate how far that will be is deluding themselves. Once the falls occurring in Perth and Brisbane and environs spreads over all states, that will be when you know sentiment has changed.

I would not choose to be there.

 

[willair]

Take it as you will. Listen to the property bulls on here who tell you property won't correct, or look at what is happening in the world economically, and with GFC2 on the way understand that Australian property will see a 30% property correction.

I don't think the property bulls here understand just how bad the global situation is.

Tsunami' to hit Australian real estate, forecaster Harry Dent says

There is always money in doom and gloom,and Harry Dent has been around for along time,just goes in cycles all the soap box fast bucks
that sell books boot camps have their day,now with all the downward value levels in Qld,in several country-city areas Dent comes out with a new book..

 

[Deltaberry]

As i see it, sentiment drives prices of all but the basics of life, and even they suffer short term, illogical, reversals.

If/When sentiment changes here, prices can drop and anyone who thinks they can nominate how far that will be is deluding themselves. Once the falls occurring in Perth and Brisbane and environs spreads over all states, that will be when you know sentiment has changed.

I would not choose to be there.

That's true - even if it falls beyond fundamental valuation, you won't know where the bottom is. If you have bullets and can wait, you might not mind buying in. But even in the US, they're still waiting.

 

[Deltaberry]

There is always money in doom and gloom,and Harry Dent has been around for along time,just goes in cycles all the soap box fast bucks
that sell books boot camps have their day,now with all the downward value levels in Qld,in several country-city areas Dent comes out with a new book..

Selling books is a massively successful buinsess.

I'm sure Robert Whateverhisnamesaki makes more money from selling books than investing in anything.

 

[silverx]

how about people in japan? they have been waiting for 20 years now... that's 2 decades!!

 

[MarkB]

Longer term members might remember this thread from 2006 (inspired by a Peter Spann talk which made reference to a Harry Dent book).

If nothing else, post # 100 on that thread (by Peter Spann and which does reference Dent) is well worth a read imo.

 

[Sunfish]

But even in the US, they're still waiting.

I've got a qtr mil of gold stocks in the US but no way am I cashing it in to buy US property. Even if the US$ falls outta bed, profitable gold miners will hold their value because their product (gold) will maintain it's price against a basket of currencies.

 

[Deltaberry]

how about people in japan? they have been waiting for 20 years now... that's 2 decades!!

Ahhhhh... isn't it 3 decades by now?

 

[Aaron Sice]

The key line from that article was "Mr Dent is in Australia to promote his book, The Great Crash Ahead - How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010-2012". Says it all I think.

halfway through as well....

the "crash mentality" must have stalled in the US on the back of prices starting to improve.....

 

[Deltaberry]

I've got a qtr mil of gold stocks in the US but no way am I cashing it in to buy US property. Even if the US$ falls outta bed, profitable gold miners will hold their value because their product (gold) will maintain it's price against a basket of currencies.

Good read - he turned out right about the US.

Liked his point about the question being "how" to invest in China - certainly very difficult. What are you going to do with $1-3m there? Being expat HK/mainland China people, I have several friends who have been there/are there with that sort of money. Most of them just went to parties, slept around. What makes you think you'll break in to a market where 1.299999 billion people are trying to break out themselves?

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi, I'll say again that Harry wasn't right about the Roaring whatchamacallit, he about turned so fast that he's lost all credibility with me.

When I first read his earlier book, I was a raving fan because what he said about demographics etc made so much sense.

He never got it right about the buoyant years so why should he be right about the "coming depression"?

I'll wait & see if he's right. May never get there, if his track record holds.

KY

 

[Deltaberry]

Don't think anyone would ever get it entirely right - it's just about the general trend of things.

Eg I saw the 08 crash coming (for whatever reason, doesn't matter any more). I didn't know when exactly - but I cashed out at 07. Obviously the market continued to roar ahead in most of 08 and I felt pretty silly for a while. But then kaboom all over.

 

[Sunfish]

the "crash mentality" must have stalled in the US on the back of prices starting to improve.....

Really? ..

 

[silverx]

Ahhhhh... isn't it 3 decades by now?

really? wow could US market see the same thing as well? imagine holding on for 30 years, wonder if they could ever recover

 

[silverx]

Longer term members might remember this thread from 2006 (inspired by a Peter Spann talk which made reference to a Harry Dent book).

If nothing else, post # 100 on that thread (by Peter Spann and which does reference Dent) is well worth a read imo.

wow... wish i have that information back in 2006! bought my first property during 2007 boom and it has crashed hard eversince

funny on the back of my mind, i just cant see property could ever go up higher than the value at that time but emotion and probably greed took better of me

i think what he said rang true, you can only put a well formed strategy if you have a well formed future

 

[Deltaberry]

really? wow could US market see the same thing as well? imagine holding on for 30 years, wonder if they could ever recover

Shouldn't be as bad as Japan

I think Japan was much more heavily inflated than the US

That said Japan also had a strong, innovative economy behind it. The US has too but I don't think it's as innovative as Japan - that said the likes of Apple, Microsoft, HP etc continue to make waves.

If the same thing happened here we'd be screwed. We are such a useless country on the innovation front compared to US/Japan. I think our abilities are probably on par or maybe a bit better than Greece. Inflexible, unionised workforce who take social welfare for granted and are anti-foreign investments. Sounds like Greece in the making.

 

[MarkB]

...imagine holding on for 30 years...

Yeah, imagine that... an asset that takes 30 years to break even...

Oh, hang on....

 

[silverx]

Shouldn't be as bad as Japan

I think Japan was much more heavily inflated than the US

That said Japan also had a strong, innovative economy behind it. The US has too but I don't think it's as innovative as Japan - that said the likes of Apple, Microsoft, HP etc continue to make waves.

If the same thing happened here we'd be screwed. We are such a useless country on the innovation front compared to US/Japan. I think our abilities are probably on par or maybe a bit better than Greece. Inflexible, unionised workforce who take social welfare for granted and are anti-foreign investments. Sounds like Greece in the making.

yeah quick google on japanese market stating that during the height of the boom the property price were 1million USD perSQM. what the...??

however the prices seem reasonable now for 4bedder 2 storey house you can get for around 400k (even at this price their housing seems to be still far from recovering). this seems way cheaper than properties in sydney or melbourne. which leads me to think that the price here will be corrected down to that level

 

[silverx]

Yeah, imagine that... an asset that takes 30 years to break even...

Oh, hang on....

darn, had i read that peter's post back in 2006, i would be gold baron by now!!