I have and I don't. I just like to show my intellectual superiority.
No way do I sell our home though.
Not so much aimed at you - mostly at those people who just talk but don't do as they say/believe.
Tsunami' to hit Australian real estate
- Thread starter bluestorm
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Not so much aimed at you - mostly at those people who just talk but don't do as they say/believe.
We're probably not much stronger on 5, 6 and 7. And these will feed 3 and 4.
Steven Keen did and was derided for it.
Haha I must say I'm not sure if I would consider some academic the "most influential" thinker... bring me a billionaire and I'll listen.
Also have a link here, albeit from July 2011
http://www.mlc.com.au/resources/MLC...f/MLC_investment_insights_property_july11.pdf
http://www.mlc.com.au/resources/MLC...f/MLC_investment_insights_property_july11.pdf
Today read an article on cnbc where he is predicting DOW to fall to 3000 by 2013
Cheers,
Oracle.
What about the elephant in the room: sentiment?
Would a dozen multi-millionaires count?
I could present them, unanimous on a topic, and you would reject their advice.
John Maynard Keynes once said:
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
I'm one of the old farts here and one of the few who understands change. You younguns think "change" is a better mobile phone. I know that "change" is life changing and happens regularly during a long life.
There is a lot of talk, specualtion, predictions and so forth on property values falling but what about rents falling???
If you are cf nuetral or positive and property values fall while rents remain steady or have a slight dip, you can ride out any correction with out too much hardship.
Or am I missing something?
If you are cf nuetral or positive and property values fall while rents remain steady or have a slight dip, you can ride out any correction with out too much hardship.
Or am I missing something?
Not really.
I could check my phone list and call up another 50 if it helps.
Point is - multi-millionaire doesn't mean much. But if you must, you could always ask me. I'll listen when Buffett or Lee Shau Kee says it.
in countries that had a bubble pop rents have fallen.
No, you are right.
If you are in the bottom market, then rents are mostly supported by the Gov pension. These tenants have no other option.
Keen & Dent will say to this, consider the extreme issues. They say comments like Families Homeless living in CVan parks were used to justify where tenants will end up.
If this is true then we are all stuffed.
Interesting Dent suggrests we all invest in US Realesate and ride the rise there in value and then take more cash when the Aussie falls against the US $. Risky strategy needing a lot of things to line up if you ask me.
And then the US gov will simply tax non citizens with property sale tax and your strategy is stuffed.
Peter 14.7
Depending on which suburbs they use for the study, all it takes is for them to quote a median and it could occur. No sales at the top end, and mostly (a small total number of) sales in the bottom end can give this result. Does it mean houses have crashed? No; but the media quote medians every week.
They can also (and do) trot out a high-end house/s in places like Brighton/Toorak etc, where some dude with a serious cash amount to spend has bought up when the state of euphoria was high, and then has to sell after the fragile finance empire he/she has been dwelling in collapses.
It's not that uncommon to see an $8 mill house sell for $6mill and so on in those areas, just as it is also not uncommon to see someone pay top-dollar for an OTP unit somewhere, and then discover a year later that they need to sell for whatever reason and voila! a big loss.
We all know this is not the wider reality though, so just disregard the hysteria.
He also said yesterday that had been predicting the drop in US REA for 20 years. Taken on face value, that is an admission for 19 years he has been wrong.
Peter 14.7
i've pre-ordered Harry Dents new book.
Prepared to keep an open mind, and curious to read his insights.
But a couple of points to highlight:
(a) this guy gets his money from writing books, giving seminars, subscription fees to his site, so he needs 'something important to say'.
(b) his potential 3000 dow forecast, i have only seen the cnbc brief. I need to read the book to obtain a better understanding. But i think its a very low probability event (but note low probability doesnt mean it can't happen, if terrorists blow up a nuclear bomb in each of the major financial cities around the world it might provide the catalyst).
Why am i reasonably confident in (b), go through the components of the DOW30, ie each individual stock in the index. Now with the dow at 11,000 odd lets look at the fundamentals of those companies at 3000. Do you really think it will get there?????
Prepared to keep an open mind, and curious to read his insights.
But a couple of points to highlight:
(a) this guy gets his money from writing books, giving seminars, subscription fees to his site, so he needs 'something important to say'.
(b) his potential 3000 dow forecast, i have only seen the cnbc brief. I need to read the book to obtain a better understanding. But i think its a very low probability event (but note low probability doesnt mean it can't happen, if terrorists blow up a nuclear bomb in each of the major financial cities around the world it might provide the catalyst).
Why am i reasonably confident in (b), go through the components of the DOW30, ie each individual stock in the index. Now with the dow at 11,000 odd lets look at the fundamentals of those companies at 3000. Do you really think it will get there?????
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