Umina Beach - Central Coast NSW

[Miriam]

Golf claps evand. Perhaps your wiki inspired psycho analysis of my "cognitive dissonance" makes you more at home with your self hatred?

I've been doing a bit of digging. FACT! Your "relations" contribution to the area was not well recieved. And you're a bit angry. I wont elaborate.

All I can say that as a TEACHER in the area (since we like to use caps here) I and everyone else here are very impressed with the ever changing social makeup of the southern central coast and we look foward to the future. And the fact that you need gentrification to justify your presence in an area shows what a shallow tool you are.

Save the plebs form bad invesments! How christian of you.

 

[china]

Central coast is great

I have lived in Point Frederick near Gosford on the Central coast for just over eight years. Prior to that I lived on the North shore of Sydney. The central coast is a great place to live but I suspect investment returns and opportunities are not as easily found as in Sydney. This is because demand for central coast properties are never going to be as great as that in Sydney. When you walk down the streets of many suburbs of Sydney, you will see many middle eastern people and asian people. So when people come off the boat, they immediately join their communities in big cities and this drives demand and hence prices for properties. Look at Chatswood or Auburn. These used to be white places but now you will struggle to find a white person in the streets. However, places outside of Sydney have always been and will remain places for white refugees who have been priced out of Sydney. This limits the demand fuelling any major price surges compared to what happens in Sydney. You hear of many retirees from Sydney moving to outside Sydney but rarely the other way around. If you sell your north shore abode, you can afford to move to central coast and still live very well. However, you can sell your Umina mansion, it will be hard to move to Sydney's north shore.

 

[evand]

Self hatred? Angry? Tool? Please elaborate? Maybe you need to look at these areas of yourself if the tone of your posts are any evidence. We can do without personal insults as well.

Where did I say I need gentrification to justify where I live. I just know gentrification or an upward change in the demographics of an area signal a good time to invest. So what's bad about that?

And I know the area back to front, inside out as I have explained. A lot more than the blow ins that have been priced out of and due to the gentrification of the northern beaches. For most, it's a choice between the outer western suburbs of Sydney or the Woy Woy peninsula. Good for the commute.

I also know that most of the central expats from Sydney absolutely bag the hell out if it. For obvious reasons.

Beside that, the particular area I live in cops it's share of criticism, less now than in the past tho. But do I care? Not one bit. I think everyone has their views, positive and negative and I'm cool with them, whatever they are.

Look, I know there are good people on the peninsula, such as yourself im sure. And I know plenty. but my point is the area is dominated by the factors I mentioned and that negatively affects property prices. That's it.

But if you can convince me otherswise im all ears.

Golf claps evand. Perhaps your wiki inspired psycho analysis of my "cognitive dissonance" makes you more at home with your self hatred?

I've been doing a bit of digging. FACT! You're "relations" contribution to the area was not well recieved. And you're a bit angry. I wont elaborate.

All I can say that as a TEACHER in the area (since we like to use caps here) I and everyone else here is very impressed with ever changing social makeup of the southern central coast and we look foward to the future. And the fact that you need gentrification to justify your presence in an area shows what a shallow tool you are.

Save the plebs form bad invesments! How christian of you.

 

[Anh]

I thoroughly enjoy the post re Umina beach as it brings different perspectives to the same area, and i think that is what the forum is about.

Take the personal point of view differences out of the thread and if one tries not to take it personal, it is a great thread. Thanks Evand for posting the info.

Anne.

 

[Miriam]

What I don't understand evand is why you go into every thread and bemoan the feralness of the central coast. Every single thread there you are hating it. We get it. It's white trash here, you've moved on and could just never go back. Oh the shame.


You probably should know since you used the phrase " blowins who could not afford to buy there", I'm not a blowin from the NB. I still own property there in Mona Vale. So your passive aggressive attack of my finances is again unwarranted, and illustrates what kind of shallow individual you are.

My partner is moving to the central coast to live here in the next month and comes from a Maltese family born and bred in Concord. Now when he when he was growing up concord west/ burwood was considerd a hole with one of the highest car theft rates in N.S.W with a temp police station set up on Major Bay Road Concord to combat the rising crime (starting late 90's). It was still a place with a mostly strong hardworking community despite official statistics. Now the family is sitting on a gold mine. By the same token some people like you, perpetuate these types perceptions of woy woy, perceptions which are not grounded in fact. There is no where near the criminal problems you state there is in this area.
Now I do not pretend the central coast is perfect, but at it's core it is not this stagnant crime filled backwater that you portray it to be. I will not give stats and figures regarding captial growth and yeilds, rather I will say that as a person who has not yet even bought here, I percieve its growing socio economic and cultural diversity as well as natural beauty to be an asset. As do many others.

 

[pennyk]

What I don't understand evand is why you go into every thread and bemoan the feralness of the central coast. Every single thread there you are hating it. We get it. It's white trash here, you've moved on and could just never go back. Oh the shame.

. By the same token some people like you, perpetuate these types perceptions of woy woy, perceptions which are not grounded in fact.
.

I dont know what evand has said on the other posts, but you do seem to be over-reacting a little. As Anh said, its best not to make posts too personal... we will often have different points of view, and if you get offended too easily, it will be challenging to be on the forum. There are lots of us here with strong opinions and we arent backwards in expressing them!

Back to the topic........ My step daughter lives in Umina Beach... and visiting her is the extent of what I know of the area. But it certainly has a "lower socioeconomic" feel to it. I dont think its necessarily crime filled.
Looking purely as an investment, I think the capital growth is limited, and that seems to be backed up by the numbers others have shared. But there are opportunities for good cash flow properties, with a number of properties with granny flats, or dual occupancies.
I think its important to remember that we are looking at investments... its not necessarily a judgement of the area, just whether its worthwhile to invest in. Obviously, there are always a range of views on areas. and there are some people who will specifically target a lower socioeconomic area.

 

[Miriam]

I am not offended easily pennyk- but a quick search will show some preoccupation with this area on evand's part.

 

[evand]

Is it your role to understand? Good on you.

I'll ignore the personal insults (again) and tell you you're wrong. The lack of cap growth on the woy woy peninsula is caused By the particular demographic that lives there. That's it, it's not complicated.

I don't know how long you've lived there but like I said,I have known the area all my life. How long have you lived there by the way?

I know there are high levels of crime, drugs, drinking, unemployment, people on benefits etc on the peninsula (they used to have police station in a shop front in Umina till lack of funding closed it).This is a fact, sorry. As much as you don't like it, or more accurately don't like someone pointing it out.

I was sick of taking my kids to nippers and them having them dodge broken glass in the surf club car park every weekend in summer from the teenagers drinking the night before. They have nothing else to do there.

Re cap growth an yields they've already been discussed and put up on the thread, and show negative growth. Can we get more than your personal observations on this topic, after all this is a property investing thread.

Couple of points:

The mantra resort is a complete white elephant. It just doesn't fit the area.

Years ago peope were hanging on to the fast ferry from Ettalong to circular quay as the catylistfor the area. Was never going to happen. And will never happen.

I worked in Concorde west in the 80s/90s and the demographic was nothing like that of the peninsula. As you say they were mostly hard working migrants and it was never an area of high benefits, retirees etc.

When I was a teenager and used to visit the area to visit relos (having moved from there to sydney when I was a kid) it was a lovely, quiet holiday destination for people from Sydney. Somehow in the 70s someone in govt got the great idea to turn it into a housing commission area. That's when The rot set in. The area changed drastically and the 2nd and 3rd generation, of the original housing commission recipients are still there. Sorry, nothings gonna change up there, all new arrivals think the same way, with a lot moving back to Sydney when it doesn't.

I loved the area, I was born there and have many great memories, as I said previously I have friends and relos there. (and I'm up there every couple of months) I'm as disapointed s anyone how the area hanged. From both a personal and investing perspective.

I know a couple of agents tree and they tell me the they love this factor as ute great for their volume. They had a term for it, but it escapes me now.

Oh, and can you please point out the cultural diversity of the area? The mono culture and complete lack of diversity of the area is a big part of why I left. Or more to the point, wanted my kids to grow up with a more real, complete and diverse view of the world.

As an edit, hers an interesting link from another well known forum.

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/1613409

Have a look at the maps, the Woy Woy peninsula appears on almost everyone as a Central Cioast crime hotspot.

http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/Hotspots_2010_Gosford.pdf/$file/Hotspots_2010_Gosford.pdf

http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/Rates_2010_Gosford.pdf/$file/Rates_2010_Gosford.pdf

I could go on and on.

What I don't understand evand is why you go into every thread and bemoan the feralness of the central coast. Every single thread there you are hating it. We get it. It's white trash here, you've moved on and could just never go back. Oh the shame.


You probably should know since you used the phrase " blowins who could not afford to buy there", I'm not a blowin from the NB. I still own property there in Mona Vale. So your passive aggressive attack of my finances is again unwarranted, and illustrates what kind of shallow individual you are.

My partner is moving to the central coast to live here in the next month and comes from a Maltese family born and bred in Concord. Now when he when he was growing up concord west/ burwood was considerd a hole with one of the highest car theft rates in N.S.W with a temp police station set up on Major Bay Road Concord to combat the rising crime (starting late 90's). It was still a place with a mostly strong hardworking community despite official statistics. Now the family is sitting on a gold mine. By the same token some people like you, perpetuate these types perceptions of woy woy, perceptions which are not grounded in fact. There is no where near the criminal problems you state there is in this area.
Now I do not pretend the central coast is perfect, but at it's core it is not this stagnant crime filled backwater that you portray it to be. I will not give stats and figures regarding captial growth and yeilds, rather I will say that as a person who has not yet even bought here, I percieve its growing socio economic and cultural diversity as well as natural beauty to be an asset. As do many others.

 

[The Fence]

Mate, what are you on about? Green dots?


If you'd like to come up with an alternative view, please do. But please leave out the childish comments about green dots etc

....but before in the other thread you said...

I'm not one that lives for approval (thats why i'm successful) but as for support on here, see the little green dots up the top.

You see, many on here are struggling to come to terms with your "facts" from experience whilst you seem to dismiss any one elses "facts" from their experiences....??

You are a law unto yourself on here Ev. Very clever...

Figures are facts and no one is disputing those, although I recall you disputing Sash's figure facts on his Umina investments...but any way we are supposed to accept that from you....

Happy New year Mate..!

 

[evand]

Did you live on the Woy Woy peninsula or Umina Beach for 28 years? As you would know the central coast is a massive area, stretching from Patonga in the south to the bottom of Newcastle in the north. Saying you live on the central coast, you could still know close to zip about the Woy Woy peninsula.

Here's a tip on how to be right 100% of the time:

Don't comment on things unless you know for sure what you're talking about. (not you specifically, everyone)


I don't lobby for green dots. Members of the forum cannot influence the amount of green dots they are given.

As for law unto myself, I'm like that in my life and the forum is just an example of that. It can polarize people, you get a lot of detractors and a lotof admirers but not a lot in the middle. Which suits me just fine. Being vanilla has never been my style. Happy new year to you.

....but before in the other thread you said...



You see, many on here are struggling to come to terms with your "facts" from experience whilst you seem to dismiss any one elses "facts" from their experiences....??

You are a law unto yourself on here Ev. Very clever...

Figures are facts and no one is disputing those, although I recall you disputing Sash's figure facts on his Umina investments...but any way we are supposed to accept that from you....

Happy New year Mate..!

 

[Miriam]

Well said thefence.

Evand I have absoluely no time to argue against every single piece of contrived anecdota you have spewed out in your previous post. I will tell you that I am not anglo and neither are many people I know of here. You obviously consider yourself a rather cultured individual who has emerged from the cess pool of bogan single mums, dole bludgers and drug addicts that apparently make their home in the bush at ettalong beach and go feral on pension day at the plaza. I and others are yet to actually see evidence of this fantasy but it is most definetly entertaining to read.
There is no arguing against your own personal nightmare. Being a sole parent myself living in woy woy I have to tend to the chillens and make sure they are literate enough to fill out centrelink forms. So you'll appreciate how busy I am.


Happy new year to you. People should visit here first not go off mine or others posts here as gospel. Everyone's experience is valid and I am not aware of anyone who has moved back to escape this area.

ETA: And I know the area very well. I have lived at Bensville, Jilliby and Avoca in the past and am now in Woy Woy. I also studied at Newcastle Uni Ourimbah Campus. So I do know the central coast quite well, up and down.

 

[evand]

How long have you lived in Woy Woy?

And its not anecdotal (beside Gloria Jeans on cheque day mornings, which i saw many times) , it's statistics and facts. But i'm sure you knew that. You just like to ignore the facts and stick with personal insults, which lessens the credibility of your argument considerably.

Oh...im still waiting for any reply to me questioning of your assertions. From Umina being a place of cultural diversity to no crime on the peninsula, etc waiting waiting.

Also, employment in the area is at 9%+, which is almost double the national average. Youth unemployment is around 20%.

I will never understand why people cant handle reality when they don't like it. Things are as they are. Liking or not liking, or hiding from it does not change things. the facts are there, what else can be said. I didnt make them up, im just pointing out reality. And getting nasty and defensive when the reality is pointed out just reinforces the truth of the point being made.

Well said thefence.

Evand I have absoluely no time to argue against every single piece of contrived anecdota you have spewed out in your previous post. I will tell you that I am not anglo and neither are many people I know of here. You obviously consider yourself a rather cultured individual who has emerged from the cess pool of bogan single mums, dole bludgers and drug addicts that apparently make their home in the bush at ettalong beach and go feral on pension day at the plaza. I and others are yet to actually see evidence of this fantasy but it is most definetly entertaining to read.
There is no arguing against your own personal nightmare. Being a sole parent myself living in woy woy I have to tend to the chillens and make sure they are literate enough to fill out centrelink forms. So you'll appreciate how busy I am.


Happy new year to you. People should visit here first not go off mine or others posts here as gospel. Everyone's experience is valid and I am not aware of anyone who has moved back to escape this area.

ETA: And I know the area very well. I have lived at Bensville, Jilliby and Avoca in the past and am now in Woy Woy. I also studied at Newcastle Uni Ourimbah Campus. So I do know the central coast quite well, up and down.

 

[pennyk]

Can we move on from this discussion? I dont think its going anywhere, apart from descending into personal attack.

Clearly there are different opinions on Umina..... there are on most areas.

I think the points have been made on both sides...... lets move on. there is nothing more to be gained here.

 

[pennyk]

Can we move on from this discussion? I dont think its going anywhere, apart from descending into personal attack.

Clearly there are different opinions on Umina..... there are on most areas.

I think the points have been made on both sides...... lets move on. there is nothing more to be gained here.

Just to clarify, I didnt mean on the thread as a whole..... just the past few posts btw miriam and evand

 

[The Fence]

I have worked in the building industry as a landscaper/fencer in the WoyWoy & Umina area for 12 years and know many people who live & work there including several retailers of over 40 years and our collective experience is that the level of crime and grade of demographic described by evand is incorrect and misleading.
Jobs that i completed were for a wide variety of clients including the very wealthy to the struggling working class and the biggest revelation to me in all this time was that for all the talk of such things I never saw any evidence whatsoever of excess crime or effects of the very poor demographic described in this thread, over and above that of any other area. In other words it did not stick out like the sore thumb described here.

In fact the wealthier the client it seemed harder to get the money out of. The poorer always had the money and were decent gracious and normal human beings. There were of course the usual riff raff as there was in Terrigal or Avoca and probably a few more percentage per capita, but the overall mood and feel from my experiences and experience related to me by people I know living there since the 60,s including a real estate agent now retired on the peninsula.

My work and personal life while living on the CC took me extensively across the entire area including the construction of several new suburbs during the years 1989-2001 and still to this day I have properties there and visit many times per year and study the markets.
Fact

 

[billiejoe87]

How long have you lived in Woy Woy?

And its not anecdotal (beside Gloria Jeans on cheque day mornings, which i saw many times) , it's statistics and facts. But i'm sure you knew that. You just like to ignore the facts and stick with personal insults, which lessens the credibility of your argument considerably.

Oh...im still waiting for any reply to me questioning of your assertions. From Umina being a place of cultural diversity to no crime on the peninsula, etc waiting waiting.

Also, employment in the area is at 9%+, which is almost double the national average. Youth unemployment is around 20%.

I will never understand why people cant handle reality when they don't like it. Things are as they are. Liking or not liking, or hiding from it does not change things. the facts are there, what else can be said. I didnt make them up, im just pointing out reality. And getting nasty and defensive when the reality is pointed out just reinforces the truth of the point being made.

I respect your opinion Evand, you certainly lived in Umina long enough to form one. You need to realise not everyone will feel the same way. Horses for courses as you said in another thread. I do want to set a few things straight that got to me when I saw this thread at work today.

Unemployment is higher than average, no denying it. However, a point you have tried to make extensively is that the Peninsula is exactly like Mt Druitt. Anyone can check Census and see unemployment is at 25% in Bidwill, Whalan, Wilmot and areas such as Airds and Claymore in Campbelltown, so it isn't as bad as many of those places.

You also mentioned in another thread that Auburn was a great area and that people who didn't like it were xenophobic. Auburn has an unemployment rate higher than Woy Woy at 12.4%, so please be fair.

I go walking Umina beach and Woy Woy waterfronts every weekend. I'm not stupid enough to not know that Umina Skatepark is not somewhere you want to be on a Saturday night, however I've never seen broken glass on the beach or in the car park. The playground equipment is always pretty clean too. I know people who have their kids in nippers at Umina and they've never had those concerns either. I have to add I have NEVER experienced crime here and am out everyday using the trains and local services, so it cant be that bad.

To move to another point, the Peninsula is not brimming with cultural diversity. Far from it. However I will say, there are definitely more Asians here than 5 years ago when I first stayed here, and this year in particular a third of the church at Woy Woy for Christmas Eve must have been Filipino, which I've never seen here before. It is certainly still very Anglo Saxon, but it is slowly getting there. I myself am Maltese background and have noticed a car with Maltese Pride on the back move up the road proudly displaying the sticker on the back that has been there for about 6 months now.

Lastly, be fair with your crime talks. Firstly I should say, I am a poster on the forum you quoted (Whirlpool) and out of the 3 posters who were bagging out the Peninsula two were banned shortly after for being spam accounts of another poster trying to flame the situation, so it's not what I would call reliable.

Secondly and most importantly, NSW crime maps show every area as a crime hotspot where there is a population centre. Have a look at Ryde and Canada Bay, two great LGA's with the same supposed "problem", according to these maps.

Ryde: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/Hotspots_2010_Ryde.pdf/$file/Hotspots_2010_Ryde.pdf

Canada Bay: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/Hotspots_2010_CanadaBay.pdf/$file/Hotspots_2010_CanadaBay.pdf

The fairer and more accurate maps to look at are the ones which show the rate per 100,000 population. Umina being the most populated suburb on the Central Coast would of course show the most crime as it has the most people. Looking at a map which shows the rate per population gives a much more accurate figure:

Central Coast Crime/100,000 population:http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/Rates_2010_Gosford.pdf/$file/Rates_2010_Gosford.pdf

Blacktown Crime/100,000 population:http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/Rates_2010_Blacktown.pdf/$file/Rates_2010_Blacktown.pdf

This map shows Woy Woy and Gosford in general to be on average for absolutely everything and Woy Woy to actually be better than the state average for robbery. Wyong unfortunately still features a bit higher in one or two categories but overall the crime is nowhere near as bad as you've made out. It also shows Mount Druitt is in another category compared to Woy Woy, so please stop with this cliche once and for all, it's old.

Is Woy Woy the best place in the world? No, What it does offer though, is a good alternative to the outer west for people on a budget, and also some of what I believe are amongst the most beautiful waterways and beaches in NSW, and therefore is also a good place to move for those priced out of the northern beaches. It is currently good value for money no matter what you think of the demographic that lives there.

 

[billiejoe87]

Yields would be still around 5% on the peninsula. Always hover around there due to lack of rental demand (very low income area) and no cap growth.

Not a great yield considering negative growth.

Tell that to my Fiance's cousin. He's been here for months trying to secure a rental (And has great rental history in the area) and cant secure anything. He said everytime he turns up it's busy as anything. He's actually had to settle for a place up at Erina.

 

[billiejoe87]

What I don't understand evand is why you go into every thread and bemoan the feralness of the central coast. Every single thread there you are hating it. We get it. It's white trash here, you've moved on and could just never go back. Oh the shame.


You probably should know since you used the phrase " blowins who could not afford to buy there", I'm not a blowin from the NB. I still own property there in Mona Vale. So your passive aggressive attack of my finances is again unwarranted, and illustrates what kind of shallow individual you are.

My partner is moving to the central coast to live here in the next month and comes from a Maltese family born and bred in Concord. Now when he when he was growing up concord west/ burwood was considerd a hole with one of the highest car theft rates in N.S.W with a temp police station set up on Major Bay Road Concord to combat the rising crime (starting late 90's). It was still a place with a mostly strong hardworking community despite official statistics. Now the family is sitting on a gold mine. By the same token some people like you, perpetuate these types perceptions of woy woy, perceptions which are not grounded in fact. There is no where near the criminal problems you state there is in this area.
Now I do not pretend the central coast is perfect, but at it's core it is not this stagnant crime filled backwater that you portray it to be. I will not give stats and figures regarding captial growth and yeilds, rather I will say that as a person who has not yet even bought here, I percieve its growing socio economic and cultural diversity as well as natural beauty to be an asset. As do many others.

I just noticed this post. Talking about Maltese before as they seem to be popping up here (Myself one of them and I moved from Ryde .

You've pretty much summed it up to a T. When I grew up in West Ryde it was considered a hole. Everyone else in Ryde snubbed West Ryde/Meadowbank and Putney and now all of them especially Putney and Meadowbank have some of the most expensive houses in the area. Believe it or not Putney especially was actually a housing commission area 30 years ago. No-one and I really mean No-one wanted to live there. Mosquito's, high crime etc. A friend of mine was actually held up at gun point 20 years ago at the old Clancy's supermarket there for a pack of ciggies. It was really bad. Now the median house price is at or near a Million for an average place. You can never tell.

 

[pennyk]

I respect your opinion Evand, you certainly lived in Umina long enough to form one. You need to realise not everyone will feel the same way. Horses for courses as you said in another thread. I do want to set a few things straight that got to me when I saw this thread at work today.

.

Great post.... This is the sort of discussion which I think is really valuable, and provides a valuable input, rather than emotional reactions and personal attack.
I dont know if any of it is accurate, cause I dont really know the area at all. But its well thought through and offers a clear alternative to the viewpoint presented by evand. Well done!

 

[evand]

How long have you lived in the area? And by that i mean on the Woy Woy peninsula?

There are many, many areas on the central coast with a population density similar to the Woy Woy peninsula that dont appear on the maps as a crime hot spots. So your point is flawed.

Here is the explanation to my links.

When crime incidents are
dispersed over a large area,
the area will have a low
crime density. When many
incidents are clustered
within a small area, the
area will have a high crime
density. Areas with a very
high crime density relative
to crime concentrations
across NSW are considered
to be crime hotspots.


To calculate crime density across NSW, the State is divided
into hundreds of thousands of 50m by 50m grid cells. A
single 50m by 50m grid cell is chosen and the incidents
within the surrounding 500m are weighted according to
how close they are to the centre of that grid cell. Incidents
at the centre of the destination cell are weighted ‘1’, while
incidents outside the search radius are weighted ‘0’. The
sum of these weighted crime counts, the ‘density score’, is
calculated and assigned to the centre grid cell. The density
score for each 50m by 50m cell is then compared with all
other cells across NSW. If the cell has a high crime density
relative to other cells, it becomes a hotspot.

I just noticed this post. Talking about Maltese before as they seem to be popping up here (Myself one of them and I moved from Ryde .

You've pretty much summed it up to a T. When I grew up in West Ryde it was considered a hole. Everyone else in Ryde snubbed West Ryde/Meadowbank and Putney and now all of them especially Putney and Meadowbank have some of the most expensive houses in the area. Believe it or not Putney especially was actually a housing commission area 30 years ago. No-one and I really mean No-one wanted to live there. Mosquito's, high crime etc. A friend of mine was actually held up at gun point 20 years ago at the old Clancy's supermarket there for a pack of ciggies. It was really bad. Now the median house price is at or near a Million for an average place. You can never tell.