Go back to the next rise in property prices location thread. The voted results are still relevant.
Victoria now in recession
- Thread starter Fifth
- Start date
Certainly Melbourne is not the easiest market at the moment. But it's market within markets as always, and having intellectual property will give you homeground advantage.
As the RBA identified, apartments and fringe houses will be hit the hardest. But they predicted it a bit too late. I made this call 3 years ago on this forum. The hit has already set in as I accurately predicted.
As the RBA identified, apartments and fringe houses will be hit the hardest. But they predicted it a bit too late. I made this call 3 years ago on this forum. The hit has already set in as I accurately predicted.
I assume you mean $4M in assets (so $1M equity). Cause if its $4M in equity with that debt level he shouldn't have much to worry about.
Which is a good point, the headline unemployment rate can stay the same. But if there's an underlying transition from full time > part time / casual, that will hurt both borrowing capacity and confidence.
The problem as I see it now is, we have such low interest rates. If house prices try to take off, then the reserve bank is going to move to lift interest rates which will cap growth.
Some might say the reserve will keep rates low for other parts of the economy, but I can't see house prices maintaining growth without some confidence / success in other parts of the economy.
If Liberal takes federal government, which seems like a foregone conclusion at the moment,
then between wielding the axe on public service, new industrial relations laws / boosting 457's etc. and just an all around conservative attitude to spending on projects, I can only see the problems locally getting worse.
The candle for me would be boosted immigration / foreign investors.
Everyone I deal with and/or know aren't hiring.
They are either laying off, or have done and are going it without as many staff - all industries.
As was said; a fair amount of casual and part-time activity, but not much else.
Builders as a whole are down on work. The paint shop here in our neck of the woods is down, and so on.
One stonework guy I know is busy - he does top-end houses. At the top end there are more folk with less of a problem with finance to spend on renovations.
Congratulations to those who bought the bottom (to the day) and have now sold?
Just highlights the ridiculous nature of watching a daily price tracker.
Don't need to sell. Bought mid last year, now worth at least 25% more, at 80% leverage that's 100% RoE.
That's what we call skill.
I'm not saying there aren't deals out there even in a falling market.
As Shadow said 3 weeks ago when he was gloating about the 6% move, he won't say whether he thinks prices are going higher or lower from here:
http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1005887&postcount=53
What does that tell you? He is just trolling with the daily number which means nothing.
Weren't you talking about building some $2m apartments a few years ago around the peak of the Melbourne market? How's that coming along? Is the "25% increase" on the land you've bought to start this project?
Nope that's not the one I was talking about. That one should be progressing shortly - can't really rely on land value increases pre-construction as there won't be much valuation uplift in that.
melbourne CBD market (where i invest) is definately showing signs of upwards support compared to 6 months ago.
Things were getting close (to where i would divert back into residential property), but just as they were getting close, the market has gained support again, and up goes the prices.
Looks like i will have to find altenative green pastures.
Things were getting close (to where i would divert back into residential property), but just as they were getting close, the market has gained support again, and up goes the prices.
Looks like i will have to find altenative green pastures.
do you mind going into more details.
As an old timer, together with your invesment accumen i respect your insights.
The monthly and quarterly data says the same - we're talking about the cumulative change since mid 2012 (nobody is making a big deal of a single day's movement, that's just a silly strawman).
Yes, I think the bottom has passed for Melbourne (and nationally). We have entered a new up cycle which is likely to continue for as long as interest rates remain around current levels.
There might still be time for you to buy your old house back and perhaps come close enough to breaking even that it won't gnaw at your soul forever.
Don't wait too long. And also get rid of that useless yellow metal before it's too late...
And no, I'm not here to provoke a reaction... in fact I'm deeply offended by the very suggestion.
CSG shouldn't be allowed here anyway, so the point is moot.
where are these job losses Kathryn?
