Fair enough unemployment is the biggest risk so we'll have to see where that heads. Last I heard it jumped from 5.6 to 6.1.
But I'm still hopeful and almost 3% for the year so far.
Next 3-6 months will be telling!
Victoria now in recession
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Fair enough unemployment is the biggest risk so we'll have to see where that heads. Last I heard it jumped from 5.6 to 6.1.
But I'm still hopeful and almost 3% for the year so far.
Next 3-6 months will be telling!
Yes but what we don't see if the real measure of unemployment.
Full Time Jobs versus Part Time Jobs.
The Types of Jobs.
Even the fact more people are retiring then entering workforce.
I.e. this
http://www.rossgittins.com/2013/02/how-demography-is-affecting-us-right-now.html
Peter
It staggers me how they come up with these figures.
In Victoria in the last 2 years, there have been a large number of closures of businesses and many redundancies.
The building industry has been hit quite hard across the board, r/e is down so you know many agents have been shed from the crop, retail stores, even places like Coles etc.
The only hope of any possible lean towards a rise in employment would be an increase in part-time and casual jobs, which may have absorbed the total of full-time and part time permanent jobs lost.
I am no shopper, so when I go to malls I notice things, and I can tell you that in the past month or so, the 3 malls that I had the unfortunate displeasure to have to visit; they were largely empty compared to years gone past that I can remember.
I just received a newsletter from Prushka Debt Recoverers, and their report on 2012 - was bad, across the board...."Generally, businesses were in contraction mode. Expenditure that could be deferred was deferred and the focus was on cutting costs rather than on growing the business". It's easy and glib to say that they should be spending money on trying to grow the business etc.
Yeah; this is anecdotal, but we always hear the official spin in the media and from the Gubb who want to paint a better than bad pic for future votes; not the reality.
Haha was just logging on to post this too!
Auction clearance rates for week ending 17/3
http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=ars
Clearance rate 63%
Reported auctions Sold 760
- prior to auction: 93
- Passed in: 267
- Sold at auction: 380
- Withdrawn: 14
- Sold after auction: 6
http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=ars
Clearance rate 63%
Reported auctions Sold 760
- prior to auction: 93
- Passed in: 267
- Sold at auction: 380
- Withdrawn: 14
- Sold after auction: 6
I still think prices and results are very patchy. Went to a couple of auctions on the weekend in Moonee Ponds for nicely renovated period homes. No non-vendor bids at either auctions.
This one, was quoted between $960k to $1.05m, now quoting $1.02m
This one, sold for $767,500 after the auction
There may have been an uptick in sentiment and maybe prices have bottomed, but the future is still unclear imo.
I have to disagree with you there Peter. I think we bottomed mid last year, early signs of recovery in the areas I look at.
Could be , only future can tell.
I think, like the share market, the market drops but then someone says, this is a bargain at $$$ as it was $$$$. They buy. Then buying stops and the price drops to $$.
REA moves in jumps and pauses when measured.
In five year time, 2013 will be either the best or worst year to buy.
O, for a crystal ball! Peter
The way I see it is that the market peaked in 2009/10. It is already 2013 (3 years). The areas that sold for high prices back a few years ago are still around the same, maybe about 10% lower. Many of my friends bought back then and are smarting for it. However, they do not need to sell because they are high income earners with good equity etc.
When the cycle turns, it does so basically overnight as well all know so I've been acquiring in anticipation of this with low rates helping holding costs.
When the cycle turns, it does so basically overnight as well all know so I've been acquiring in anticipation of this with low rates helping holding costs.
I know a few doing just that.
Buy at great prices now and lock in great rates.
It really is that simply provided you can hold it.
Went over friend numbers yesterday he has $1000 under $3,000,000 in debt, Equity $4M. We played out a number of worst case scenarios of what could bring him unstuck. In the end there was many contingencies he could call upon, so all good.
Peter
Melbourne peaked later than national median (around late 2010/early 2011 depending on the index followed) so still only 2-2.5 years since peak. Both Sydney and Perth went through 5-6 years price corrections/stagnations following similar booms to the one Melbourne saw over 2009/2010. Personally I think it's way too early to expect Melbourne is nearing recovery. Even the RBA thinks prices are heading lower in Melbourne:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/03/rba-highlights-melbourne-housing-risks/
Where abouts are they looking? Top end of the market? I assume not the OTP apartments.
For sure, I don't know when it will turn - no one does. I just have this feeling about it though. We shall see.
You cant recover less of their earlier decline if prices continue to fall.
Personally, on the ground the peak was definitely at the end of the autumn selling season in 2010. We are almost at 3 years imo.
The wording from the RBA on that line was decidedly poor, but think it is pretty obvious they indicate lower Melbourne prices ahead.You cant recover less of their earlier decline if prices continue to fall.
Personally, on the ground the peak was definitely at the end of the autumn selling season in 2010. We are almost at 3 years imo.
Even if it was 3 years, the fundamentals for Melbourne are as poor if not worse than they were at the peak, more supply, more stock on market, lowest yields of OZ capitals, etc. I don't think the nominal bottom is in yet.
