http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/10/new-home-market-still-the-worst-in-20-years/(Stockland) Managing Director Matthew Quinn reiterated that this is the worst new housing market he has seen in more than 20 years and that this will cause a substantial decline in earnings per share in FY13. Conditions in Victoria are particularly challenging following the end of state government stimulus on 30 June 2012; sales volumes have halved and aggressive discounting is required to clear stock.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/d...mand-slumps-20121015-27n1p.html#ixzz29VzszRbvJust 500 blocks a month were sold in Melbourne in the September quarter - a new low. That compares with about 1500 a month from 2009 to 2011, according to the latest figures by property research company Research Four.
Stock on market continues to remain elevated (much higher than GFC levels):
http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/graph_stock_on_market.php?region=vic::Melbourne&type=c&t=1
Vacancy rates remain well above other capital cities:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/10/rental-vacancies-flatline/
Mortgages being discharged faster than they are being taken out:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/10/victorian-mortgage-demand-transfers-fall-sharply/
Those familiar with my expectations on property on a national level would know I am not expecting a crash, but I think Melbourne/Victoria (alone) could be set up to see one:
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2012/06/chart-guide-to-melbourne-property-crash.html
I think 30% off prices over 3-4 years is a definite possibility.