What does $500 brl OIL mean??
- Thread starter Bill.L
- Start date
Some enterprises that'll do well as petrol goes up.
- online shopping.
- freight companies delivering all those online purchases (higher volume should cover higher fuel costs)
- telecommuting, teleconferencing, videophones. anyone thinking they'll be flying Bris Syd Melb Perth for the same price in 3 years is in for a rude awakening. will get exorbitantly expensive to visit relies in other capitals.
- shared corporate offices in the suburbs... centralized small and medium businesses will look more seriously at dispersing their workforce closer to home and clients and using telecommunications to manage.
- property closer to infrastructure jobs.
- online education (the universities are already gearing up for this).
- more efficient metro and regional travel options (bus and train)
- diesel, hybrid, and electric powered powered small cars
- solar panel research and sales
- battery storage technology
- electric bikes and scooters (interestingly, anyone obese won't go far on an electric bike....distance and speed are influenced by payload, so yet another reason not to be overweight)
business bound to contract
- airlines
- overseas holidays
- anything to do with 4wd's: 4wd accessories, 4wd holidays.
- recreational boating excluding sail boats.
- regional towns reliant on interstate travellers, especially motels, non long term caravan parks.
- school activities and sport >15km from school.
- anything to do with the culture of hooning. (can't wait)
- businesses outside of capital cities dependent on day and weekend trippers.
- the urban sprawl phenomenon should slow drastically. It is one of the most costly ways of housing a lot of people, in terms of infrastructure costs and ongoing transport cost. Instead, we will all be living a lot closer together.
- regional towns that don't produce something locally, or tap into telecommuting work trends will come under increasing pressure to die.
Yup, the world is about to get a lot smaller for most of us. We'll be spending much more time within 20km of where we live. And we'll be living a lot closer to where we work.
My view is within 10 years, we are going to go through profound changes in lifestyle most of us cannot imagine now. I've been cycling and catching trains and buses periodically in various parts of Brisbane to get a feel for each area's convenience factor. It's amazing how one soon learns to appreciate flatter terrain when getting around on a bike, in addition to paths off main roads.
Personally, I hope OPEC throw a few shocks at the west before the real post peak oil contraction hits. We need some serious shaking up of collective and political will before we'll get serious about dwindling oil supplies.
Meanwhile, has anyone noticed the global warming brigade have been out of the headlines moreso this year? Seems the media has found other things to worry about- sub prime, recession, peak oil, etc. Maybe it is just that the left are feeling happier since Labor got in.
- online shopping.
- freight companies delivering all those online purchases (higher volume should cover higher fuel costs)
- telecommuting, teleconferencing, videophones. anyone thinking they'll be flying Bris Syd Melb Perth for the same price in 3 years is in for a rude awakening. will get exorbitantly expensive to visit relies in other capitals.
- shared corporate offices in the suburbs... centralized small and medium businesses will look more seriously at dispersing their workforce closer to home and clients and using telecommunications to manage.
- property closer to infrastructure jobs.
- online education (the universities are already gearing up for this).
- more efficient metro and regional travel options (bus and train)
- diesel, hybrid, and electric powered powered small cars
- solar panel research and sales
- battery storage technology
- electric bikes and scooters (interestingly, anyone obese won't go far on an electric bike....distance and speed are influenced by payload, so yet another reason not to be overweight)
business bound to contract
- airlines
- overseas holidays
- anything to do with 4wd's: 4wd accessories, 4wd holidays.
- recreational boating excluding sail boats.
- regional towns reliant on interstate travellers, especially motels, non long term caravan parks.
- school activities and sport >15km from school.
- anything to do with the culture of hooning. (can't wait)
- businesses outside of capital cities dependent on day and weekend trippers.
- the urban sprawl phenomenon should slow drastically. It is one of the most costly ways of housing a lot of people, in terms of infrastructure costs and ongoing transport cost. Instead, we will all be living a lot closer together.
- regional towns that don't produce something locally, or tap into telecommuting work trends will come under increasing pressure to die.
Yup, the world is about to get a lot smaller for most of us. We'll be spending much more time within 20km of where we live. And we'll be living a lot closer to where we work.
My view is within 10 years, we are going to go through profound changes in lifestyle most of us cannot imagine now. I've been cycling and catching trains and buses periodically in various parts of Brisbane to get a feel for each area's convenience factor. It's amazing how one soon learns to appreciate flatter terrain when getting around on a bike, in addition to paths off main roads.
Personally, I hope OPEC throw a few shocks at the west before the real post peak oil contraction hits. We need some serious shaking up of collective and political will before we'll get serious about dwindling oil supplies.
Meanwhile, has anyone noticed the global warming brigade have been out of the headlines moreso this year? Seems the media has found other things to worry about- sub prime, recession, peak oil, etc. Maybe it is just that the left are feeling happier since Labor got in.
Just paid $1.50 litre to fill up yesterday with premium so regular unleaded would be about $1.40. Given that there is still a 3.5 cent gap between the AUD and the CND it sounds we are paying the same prices.
A nice can of worms you've opened up here Bill.
$500 oil is not really a meaningful statistic. Before then a number of technologies will become "economical", coal to liquids and shale oil spring to mind but there are always "buts". (And world order will collapse before then anyway.)
These technologies are very polluting and we must start diverting our available resources to developing them now if we are to have any chance of of replacing oil as it depletes. They are mutually exclusive and it won't happen. By the time we decide on some technology there will not be time or resources to phase it in.
Ethanol is a crime against humanity.
But TC and friends will need real diesel to grow our crops or we'll starve. So rationing will happen. Wanna bet the hoons will be the last to run out of petrol?
I think this post sums up nicely why US500/barrel in today's dollar is extremely unlikely to happen, as new technologies become more viable and bringing the cost down. Also, as one poster said, the cost of production really isn't much (as a process engineer, I know that we often use 25-30USD/barrel as a CONSERVATIVE measure of the cost basis). The huge gap between the contract price and the cost of production can mean the followings: 1. The future demand has already been priced in, 2. USD is no longer valuable and people are buying oil contracts as the "new" international currency, 3. There is probably a lot of speculation froth.
In my opinion, Coal to Gas and Gas to Liquid is definitely set to go. Feasibility study has just been completed for Monash Energy Project and 500 million has been allocated to clean coal research by the Fed Government in this new budget. This will not only cap the oil price to some extent, but will also help to protect Australia from the "oil supply crisis" if things really do go bad. China, I believe, is also doing the same thing, as there is a lot of brown coal in Shan Xi Province as well.
Hi all,
Looking at the effect of $500 oil on currencies is probably an important aspect that has been overlooked by some.
I would expect the $A to rise in value with the higher oil price, effectively negating some of the impact here especially with our coal, uranium and gas resources .
Higher inflation is another aspect that will negate the effect of higher oil prices. If inflation were to go to 8-10% because of higher oil, it might be the higher interest rates that hurt more than the higher oil price for some.
I could see that countries that have a falling currency with the rising oil prices would be the hardest ones hit. However if the world generally went into recession and there were lower prices overall for 'resources' then our $A may also fall, but such a scenario would make the demand for oil lower and $500 oil hard to maintain.
The more I think about it, the less worrisome $US 500 oil is, for us anyway. My opinion is that things will be pretty much business as usual for most Australians with a slight variation of existing habits (ie car pooling). Of course the media will have a feeding frenzy, and the G&D brigade will be shouting 'I told you so, just wait for $2000 oil'
bye
Looking at the effect of $500 oil on currencies is probably an important aspect that has been overlooked by some.
I would expect the $A to rise in value with the higher oil price, effectively negating some of the impact here especially with our coal, uranium and gas resources .
Higher inflation is another aspect that will negate the effect of higher oil prices. If inflation were to go to 8-10% because of higher oil, it might be the higher interest rates that hurt more than the higher oil price for some.
I could see that countries that have a falling currency with the rising oil prices would be the hardest ones hit. However if the world generally went into recession and there were lower prices overall for 'resources' then our $A may also fall, but such a scenario would make the demand for oil lower and $500 oil hard to maintain.
The more I think about it, the less worrisome $US 500 oil is, for us anyway. My opinion is that things will be pretty much business as usual for most Australians with a slight variation of existing habits (ie car pooling). Of course the media will have a feeding frenzy, and the G&D brigade will be shouting 'I told you so, just wait for $2000 oil'
bye
we have if you're only talking light sweet crude.
if you're talking global oil reserves then we're about 5% depeleted.
if you're talking global oil reserves then we're about 5% depeleted.
Sometime in 2005, you can dig up the exact month with some googling. Around 85 MBPD from memory.
**edit.. actually not that easy to track down the data, would be interested if anyone has a good link. Oil supply and production could be two different things, I am of the understanding that production peaked in 05, but haven't seen any recent data.
Interesting article over at The Oil Drum about peak oil (peak whale oil) and the decline in production and subsequent effect on price, also similar studies done on fishing bio mass decline and price effects, including demand destruction (sadly sometimes only after extinction).
Just talked to my mum in Germany - they pay Euro 1.50 / L - that's almost Au$ 2.50 / L
.kaf
Todays 'John Mauldins investors insight' is all about peak oil, and it is rather frightening. He is doing some good stuff.
I would put up a link, but not sure how to.
See ya's.
I would put up a link, but not sure how to.
See ya's.
TC, I've been reading John Mauldin, Jim Puplava and Don Coxe for years.
They are to blame for my D&G attitude. They have made a lot of good calls though and should not be dismissed lightly.
Someone was asking if we have already passed "peak oil". If you were to believe these guys and Matt Simmons, "Yes, we have" but you've got to be careful. It may be that we have only reached the peak of "cheap" oil, ie stuff we can get by drilling a few thousand feet to get at it.
Don't take too much notice of "unconventional" oil. The US has enormous quantities of shale oil but we are decades away from the time when they can recover it using environmentally sound techniques, or desperate enough to go for it anyway in some sort of Mad Max scenario. I believe the landscape around Alberta, Canada already has that look to it.
They are to blame for my D&G attitude.
They have made a lot of good calls though and should not be dismissed lightly.Someone was asking if we have already passed "peak oil". If you were to believe these guys and Matt Simmons, "Yes, we have" but you've got to be careful. It may be that we have only reached the peak of "cheap" oil, ie stuff we can get by drilling a few thousand feet to get at it.
Don't take too much notice of "unconventional" oil. The US has enormous quantities of shale oil but we are decades away from the time when they can recover it using environmentally sound techniques, or desperate enough to go for it anyway in some sort of Mad Max scenario. I believe the landscape around Alberta, Canada already has that look to it.
Here is a link to John's 'outside the box' post
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blo...xport-land-model-means-for-energy-prices.aspx
I do think you need to be a member (but not sure) but to sign up is free and they post out a heap of good info, if somewhat D&G. At least it gives you another perspective.
Cheers
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blo...xport-land-model-means-for-energy-prices.aspx
I do think you need to be a member (but not sure) but to sign up is free and they post out a heap of good info, if somewhat D&G. At least it gives you another perspective.
Cheers
The most concerning thing I got from John Mauldins latest article was how quickly oil production dropped off once peak production was hit,.....
......."You don't have to have an awful lot of gray hair to remember the excitement around England's massive North Sea oil fields. While discovered in 1969, it wasn't until well into the 1980s, on the back of surging oil prices, that the fields came into full production. Turning up the taps, the United Kingdom (as well as Norway and Germany, who also have North Sea production) became a significant exporter of oil.
But then, in 1999, something happened: the UK's North Sea production hit peak ... that tipping point after which reservoirs go into decline, setting in motion both reduced production and progressively higher costs related to extracting the remaining oil.
While the experience of North Sea oil production provides yet another useful example of the validity of the Peak Oil theory, what concerns us today is a critical but usually overlooked aspect of the discussion, exports.
At the time the North Sea peaked in 1999, the U.K. was exporting 1 million barrels of oil per day. By August 2004, it had become a net importer. What happened to cause the situation to turn around so quickly? "........
The point of peak oil is in theory supposed to mean that half the oil is still left. Perhaps it is really much less.
Of course, this doesn't include tar sands, oil shales etc, however these oil sources are a whole new energy and environmental problem.
See ya's.
......."You don't have to have an awful lot of gray hair to remember the excitement around England's massive North Sea oil fields. While discovered in 1969, it wasn't until well into the 1980s, on the back of surging oil prices, that the fields came into full production. Turning up the taps, the United Kingdom (as well as Norway and Germany, who also have North Sea production) became a significant exporter of oil.
But then, in 1999, something happened: the UK's North Sea production hit peak ... that tipping point after which reservoirs go into decline, setting in motion both reduced production and progressively higher costs related to extracting the remaining oil.
While the experience of North Sea oil production provides yet another useful example of the validity of the Peak Oil theory, what concerns us today is a critical but usually overlooked aspect of the discussion, exports.
At the time the North Sea peaked in 1999, the U.K. was exporting 1 million barrels of oil per day. By August 2004, it had become a net importer. What happened to cause the situation to turn around so quickly? "........
The point of peak oil is in theory supposed to mean that half the oil is still left. Perhaps it is really much less.
Of course, this doesn't include tar sands, oil shales etc, however these oil sources are a whole new energy and environmental problem.
See ya's.
Is that what it means though?
I thought "peak" referred to the rate of extraction, not the amount of oil left, so once a well has peaked, the rate of extraction starts to fall (ie. the number of barrels per day). The amount of oil left could be anything, possibly only a relatively small fraction of the initial reserve.
GP
Yep, you are dead correct.
I've just heard it mentioned that it also means half the oil is still left, but as you point out, that is just an assumption, and probably a very wrong assumption.
See ya's.
Hi all,
Looking at the effect of $500 oil on currencies is probably an important aspect that has been overlooked by some.
I would expect the $A to rise in value with the higher oil price, effectively negating some of the impact here especially with our coal, uranium and gas resources .
Higher inflation is another aspect that will negate the effect of higher oil prices. If inflation were to go to 8-10% because of higher oil, it might be the higher interest rates that hurt more than the higher oil price for some.
I could see that countries that have a falling currency with the rising oil prices would be the hardest ones hit. However if the world generally went into recession and there were lower prices overall for 'resources' then our $A may also fall, but such a scenario would make the demand for oil lower and $500 oil hard to maintain.
The more I think about it, the less worrisome $US 500 oil is, for us anyway. My opinion is that things will be pretty much business as usual for most Australians with a slight variation of existing habits (ie car pooling). Of course the media will have a feeding frenzy, and the G&D brigade will be shouting 'I told you so, just wait for $2000 oil'
bye
Is the question of $500 pb somewhat wrong when the assumptions seem to be that it will just be inflationary?
Maybe the question should be "What does $300 pb of oil mean today" ie what impact will this price have when you don't assume that wages will increase to keep things on a fairly even keel.
Say for instance that today a person on average wage spends $100 pw on petrol (out of $711 net). At $300pb the price of petrol would at least triple so giving him a bill of $300 for his weekly petrol bill not even including the affect of this oil price on all other necessities.
Suddenly you would need to face up to a changed lifestyle with a dramatic reduction in both calorie intake and mobility. There is a write up on the effects of reduced oil imports into Cuba
http://globalpublicmedia.com/articles/657
highlighting the dramatic changes that had to be adopted including the average national weight loss (maybe a good thing
- unless it hits starvation level)I am with WW that we will see dramatic changes withing the next 5-10 years that can't even be imagined by the general populace just yet. Most people are even ignorant of the fact that oil as a natural resource has a finite capacity to keep delivering.
Cheers
Me and Andrew A discussed Cuba and peak oil in the 'peak oil, Oops, missed it thread'.
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36761&highlight=cuba+wheat&page=2
It's a load of greeny propaganda garbage that cuba has beaten peak oil. They import huge amounts of food from the US, and Cuba is a relatively fertile country, so it's all a bit of an embarrasment for all concerned I would think.
This is a post I made,.....
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=346166&postcount=29
........"The Cuban story is interesting.
I've been hearing for years how they have beaten PO. I've wondered how it's been possible, but I've never gone into it. The permaculture certainly reduces dependance on fossil fuels, that's while humans are using a hoe to cultivate, but I notice they mention that Oxen and other draught animals are being used. Draught animals are the most inefficient of all, and eat one quarter of the grain produced. The claim is also made that oxen don't compact the soil? Well just think what a hoof will do on an animal that weighs nearly a tonne. An oxen will compact the soil worse than any tire.
A quick google, [I googled Cuba grain imports] turns out they are importing 2 million tonnes a year of wheat, corn and rice, and the imports are increasing. The best page is a PDF, and I don't know how to turn it into a link, other wise I would post the link.
So that is the secret. Much of the grain is probably being fed to animals, and the manure would be supplying the nutrients for the permaculture plots.
Organic farming works very well with most agricultural production, especially small scale vegetable and fruit, but it falls in a heap with grain production because of the huge amount of nutrients needed, and the much lower value of production per tonne. The fact is, the worlds grain production provides the nutrients for a lot of organic farming.
It also turns out that Cuba has very fertile soil, and nearly half the land is arable. Most countries only have a very small percentage of arable land, and so does Australia.
I wonder how they would go without grain imports? I think it would not be pretty.
ps. Here is a link to Cubas food imports,....
http://www.grandcaribecommodities.co...g_in_Cuba.html
*In 2006 Cuba was the 33rd largest market for U.S. agricultural exports, ranking ahead of countries like Morocco, Brazil, Sweden and Denmark. U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba have grown significantly since trade was authorized in 2000.
*The United States now is Cuba’s largest supplier of agricultural products, supplying approximately 96 percent of Cuba’s rice imports and 70 percent of their poultry meat imports.
*Cuba imports about $1 billion in agricultural products overall. Basic food products and commodities such as rice, wheat, poultry, corn, soybeans, and soybean products have dominated U.S. sales to Cuba. Although minimal seafood is exported to Cuba, U.S. wood product exports to Cuba now exceed $7 million.
*Major competitors include Argentina, Brazil, the EU, New Zealand, Canada and China.
Cuba is the largest single grain market in 6 in the Caribbean taking on average 40% of the region’s grain imports and is forecast to remain dependent on foreign grain supplies for two reasons. First, no wheat is produced, and corn and rice production are shrinking. Second, consumption is rising on both population and income growth.
Hmm. This raises the question, exactly what is Cuba producing besides organic vegetables and fruit? Not much by the look of it. I should have guessed that the Cuban story was too good to be true.
The Cuban peak oil story is a load of greenie organic manure fertilizer propaganda. And it's starting to stink."..........
See ya's.
