When Labor backbencher Andrew McNamara rose from his seat in the Queensland Parliament in February to state a few home truths about falling world oil supplies, he expected, at most, a few catcalls from the Opposition benches.
Instead, the speech by the provincial solicitor from Hervey Bay, north of Brisbane, "bounced around the world".
Although his words were little reported elsewhere in Australia, McNamara was inundated with congratulatory emails from all corners of the globe for addressing an issue that previously might have seen him labelled as a flat-earther.
The issue is Peak Oil, the theory that the world will face a sudden, cataclysmic decline in supplies after global production peaks, sometime in the next 20 years.
According to McNamara, who believes it's going to happen sooner rather than later, the direct impact on our lives will be greater than terrorism, global warming or bird flu.
"The challenges we face after Peak Oil will require localised food production and industry in a way not seen for 100 years," he says. "Local rail lines and fishing fleets will be vital to regional communities. Self-contained communities living close to work, farms, services and schools will not be merely desirable; they will be essential.
BLAH, BLAH, BLAH...
A series of seemingly one-off events - a strike in Venezuela, the troubles of Russia's oil giant Yukos, civil unrest in Nigeria and even Hurricane Ivan hitting the south-eastern United States - have kept the pressure on prices.
But a hypersensitive market is also one of the symptoms forecast for when the world enters the twilight years of oil production. Then there's the war in Iraq.
"Iraq is just an ongoing disaster. There's continual sabotage of oil infrastructure. Production is down to 60 or 70 per cent of prewar levels," says Thurtell, referring to the nation with the world's second-largest reserves, and the one country where output could quickly be lifted were circumstances propitious.
Member nations of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Iran last month agreed to boost production by a half-million barrels a day. But the world consumes about 82 million barrels daily and demand is growing at its fastest rate for more than two decades.
With their rigs and terminals operating above 90 per cent capacity, OPEC countries admit their once vaunted ability to manipulate prices by significantly boosting production is a thing of the past.
"OPEC has done all it can do," Qatar's Oil Minister, Abdullah al-Attiyah, said recently. "This is out of the control of OPEC."
Not everyone buys that line, but whether due to market machinations, genuine paucity or reckless consumption, the prices speak volumes. The oil industry bible Oil & Gas Journal says a series of oil shocks could unfold - we may be in the middle of one now - with more to come in 2010 and 2015.
"
