What the Reserve will do Tuesday

[Perth Investor]

Two years ago I think these were the most fun threads you could get, everyone putting a bet on what the Reserve Bank was going to do each month.

And it looks like movement is on the way again. So what's your bet?

 

[Aaron Sice]

i'm really unsure about this meeting.

bad news OS (like the chinese tariff) spells a bit of immediate trouble here.

i just don't know.

 

[Perth Investor]

Oh and I fixed some loans this week, and am betting .25% on the way to somewhere around 8.25% retail by the end of next year.

 

[Perth Investor]

i'm really unsure about this meeting.

bad news OS (like the chinese tariff) spells a bit of immediate trouble here.

i just don't know.

Fencesitter!

 

[Ausprop]

why is it IRs in this country seem to be permanently too high?

 

[Perth Investor]

What do you think house prices would do if interest rates were at 4% retail or less like the northern hemisphere?

 

[agent007]

Two years ago I think these were the most fun threads you could get, everyone putting a bet on what the Reserve Bank was going to do each month.

And it looks like movement is on the way again. So what's your bet?

What about the implications of a rate movement or not movement to the AUD?

 

[DJBarnstar]

I'm betting on no change

 

[Perth Investor]

What about the implications of a rate movement or not movement to the AUD?

Oooh that's a good one, shall we do a "time until parity" poll.

Or a "maximum the dollar gets to in 2011" Poll

Or a "What happens to the dollar next week after the Reserve decision" poll

??

 

[Mooze]

Given the level of the AUD, housing approvals coming in below predicted, and the current US/Chinese battle of wills going on, voted for no movement.

 

[Bigtone]

i had a little play on the market by laying the .25% increase at $1.24 on Tuesday this week, i can take 50% profit today by backing the .25% rise at 1.36%. think i will just let it ride for now and see what happens unless i can get $2 for the .25% rise and then i will cash out .

l think the odds get too short early in the month when so much can happen in last two weeks. laying the early fav has been a profitable over the last 24 months.

cheers

 

[Ausprop]

What do you think house prices would do if interest rates were at 4% retail or less like the northern hemisphere?

it may pull prices out of the doldrums but I don't know. Should we care though? there is more to life (and the economy) than house prices

 

[sash]

Based on the following....I am 80% sure that the RBA will pull the lever!

This is based on:

1. The low rate of unemployment and an emerging skills shortage

2. The dollar has hit US $0.95....this will make more attractive for Aussies to go overseas

3. Signs that inflation is heading up

4. Sydney and Melbourne markets have not cooled to the degree of SA, Qld, and WA

 

[Andrew_A]

Based on the following....I am 80% sure that the RBA will pull the lever!
............

Well the target rate tracker is saying 64% chance of a .25% increase as of the 29th.

 

[Perth Investor]

Well the target rate tracker is saying 64% chance of a .25% increase as of the 29th.

That's intriguing; our poll is sitting at 65%, so that says something.

Sportsbet has it at $1.25, so I guess they're saying an 80% chance like Sash.

 

[csc2]

up .25% then wait until the new year...with housing slowing down though anything could happen...

 

[mary&mat]

As I've said in other posts, I'm feeling twitchy & looking at fixing.

I'll go .25

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

RBA increase of 0.25% + an additional increase by the banks of 0.1-0.2%, making the total 'effective' increase in the range of 0.35%-0.45%

 

[random]

why is it IRs in this country seem to be permanently too high?

Unfortunately it's just the Australian way, rip the country off blind ! In everything they eat ,buy, build, forms , licences , permits , tax , petrol , services, laws and controllability [us] and on and on it goes. Sad but true and getting even worse by the day .

Cheers

 

[grossreal]

hi all
for me it depends what the us dollar does
it was at 97 today but it is looking at going to parity by end next week
if it gets to 1 for 1 then I think that you will see some high breaks go on
I am keeping a very close eye on the dollar and the parity is the bench mark its been to 98 but I think will hit 1 for 1 next week late in the week I think
alot of trade is done on the dollar and I think the reserve will raise rates
the problem is that we do not have alot else going for us
and this is an issue.
for me its a case of stock pile at this stage and what to move