when is the best time to buy?

[brains]

I know its hard to generalise and we cant discuss every different property market in Australia but taking into account rising interest rates and looking forward flat or negative prices in most places in Australia.

Its basically a way of asking if people think that property prices will fall and present better buying opportunies in the near future.

If ive missed any relevant options, mods are welcome to alter.

 

[see_change]

Problem with every poll is there is always one catagory that is left out.

For me , in this one it's "all of the above "

See Change

 

[brains]

That might be true See_Change but get off the fence will you

 

[see_change]

He he , Sorry Brains

Again that catogory is not there. If not now, then I don't think the market will hit the bottom until just before the next boom starts.

If you are into timing the market, the best time to buy is just as the market starts moving. If we follow historical patters , that won't be for another 5 years at least.

So in that sense my answer would be now, or in about 5 years time.

See Change

BTW , if you're sitting on the fence , you get a good view of what's going on around you

 

[brains]

Thats why i added the option for three or more years and one for the mods to change the poll, i knew id leave something out.

btw...How do you know it will be 5 years before the market starts moving? I think the upcoming price slump will last longer than that.

Originally posted by see_change
He he , Sorry Brains

Again that catogory is not there. If not now, then I don't think the market will hit the bottom until just before the next boom starts.

If you are into timing the market, the best time to buy is just as the market starts moving. If we follow historical patters , that won't be for another 5 years at least.

So in that sense my answer would be now, or in about 5 years time.

See Change

BTW , if you're sitting on the fence , you get a good view of what's going on around you

 

[see_change]

Maybe I should have said at least five years.

I don't "know" . I'll be sitting on the fence watchin' .

Once I see the central areas of sydney move, that will be the key to start buying. First near middle of sydney , then further out in sydney , then Central bris, then middle / outer brisbane ... then back to Rocky or who knows where... maybe back to hobart , or even adealide and Melb this time.

See Change

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Brains, I think I'll join see_change on that fence. However if we owned no IPs, then my answer would be now when we can afford it.

Actually I hope LB's crash comes about so we can pick up some bargains in the next year or two. If inflation starts rising it maybe sooner, if interest rates keep rising, it maybe later, if if if...
Ah back to the fence with See_ch.

I like the option of watching for the wave, waiting for the wave and then catching the wave.

bye

 

[willair]

I personally think that real estate investings activitys will change in less than a year ,the interest rates jumps will help it has every other time, this time will be no different i just cant see it being a total bust maybe just a level out ,some areas will suffer other will
just stall then the cycle will start again,, it just will never be like the last 5 years,but im only a dumb plumber what would i know.
good luck
willair..

 

[abcdiamond]

Hope there is plenty of room on that fence
and that its a good solid one, that won't break when everyone gets on it

 

[Jacque]

Such a broad question, as you admit yourself Brains

Who can really say? I do have to agree with you however, with rising rates and coming out of a HUGE boom over the last two years (not to mention the FHOG which saw droves of renters leaving the rental market in the doldrums) now isn't probably the ideal time. But then again.... if a terrific bargain presented itself?!

 

[brains]

Would the people who voted 'NOW ' like to state the reasons why they think now is a better time to buy then anytime within the next 3 or so years?

And then go back to the asylum and lock the gate behind you

 

[see_change]

Because I think I can buy an IP that will be profitable for me , over the next 1-3 years.

If I can do that NOW, I will be in a position to buy MORE in 3-5 years time.

See Change

 

[brains]

To do that See_ Change you must be expecting reasonable cap. growth for the property you will be buying NOW, is that a realistic assumption? I dont think so in the current climate.

And have you locked the gate yet?

Originally posted by see_change
Because I think I can buy an IP that will be profitable for me , over the next 1-3 years.

If I can do that NOW, I will be in a position to buy MORE in 3-5 years time.

See Change

 

[Peter_Tersteeg]

Brains,

I'm probably preaching to the converted here, but...

If you run the same poll at anytime in the future, I'll probably give the same answer. I voted 'now', because if it's a good deal (acording to my criteria) and I'm in a position where I feel comfortable purchasing, I'll buy it. This could be now, in 1 year, or whenever.

I probably won't be buying a property in the near future, but that's got more to do with my current financial state, availablity of property that meets my criteria and my current personal goals, rather than the economic/property cycle.

 

[abcdiamond]

Brains

They still reckon that SEQld has another 3 years decent growth, and if they are correct, then NOW is a good time to buy.

However, I am still sittiing on the fence, looking for that special bargain, which, if it appears, I will buy NOW

 

[brains]

Fair enough PT, thats a good answer. A bargain is a bargain in any market. I should have included that option. But i was talking about general IP buying as there will be a lot more bargains around in the years to come.

Originally posted by PT_Bear
Brains,

I'm probably preaching to the converted here, but...

If you run the same poll at anytime in the future, I'll probably give the same answer. I voted 'now', because if it's a good deal (acording to my criteria) and I'm in a position where I feel comfortable purchasing, I'll buy it. This could be now, in 1 year, or whenever.

 

[see_change]

Brains

There are areas in Australia , which have only just started moving in the current cycle. They are giving higher than Average returns ( hate that word ..) and are attracting investors.

I expect they will move significantly.

As I already have a a fair number of IP's and it IS late in the cycle , I'm not going to be going off and buying a whole lot more, but I have been talking to three vendors over the last weeks.

If I find a good deal , I will buy it, If I don't I won't , but I'm still looking.

See Change

 

[Peter_Tersteeg]

Originally posted by brains
Fair enough PT, thats a good answer. A bargain is a bargain in any market. I should have included that option. But i was talking baout genera IP buying as there will be a lot more bargains around in the years to come.

That's a very valid point Brains. I'll probably feel more comfortable buying later rather than sooner for the reasons you suggest.

I have noticed in the past however, that when I buy a property and buy well, my servicablity seems to move with it. Given rate rises, servicablity limitations and a possible drop in the market this may change, but if it doesn't, buying now may have little negative effect on buying in the future

I'm also not sure about there being a lot more bargains in the years to come. There's plenty of predictions that we're in for a soft landing. Certain markets will see a drop in value, but there's speculation that other markets will continue to grow, but at a far slower rate.

If this is the case, then we're probably better off purchasing the bargin we can see now, rather than waiting for the one that might (or might not) come along tomorrow.

 

[NormH]

Hi,
I voted 2 years but really it is anytime that a property meets my criteria. But if you look at my criteria it is sort of self selecting anyway as I am after a return of x as a minimum and won't buy below that as to me the investment is becoming too hot/over heated.

I suspect prices will drop some what and rents will gradually climb a tad, things will start to fall into place, numbers wise again, and I will be buying again, as those hens teeth get easier to find. .

I suspect that to be 1 to 2 years out max, mortgagee sales will help, and as interest rates raise that is when cash is king and I plan on having some ready.

Mean while I will continue to purchase the odd batch of blue chip shares and pick up some growth until the crazies leave the property market again.

I believe we follow about a 7 year cycle where shares peak, then property peaks and then short term interest peaks and then shares again. That is the pattern I believe, the time between the peaks varies but the whole cycle is about 7 years on average.

Things have been a bit of a mess this time however as the 1995(about) to 2000 share run, the smart money was starting to get out, property picks up and has then started its run. Taxi drivers are starting to talk about 'property' so it is time to get out. Interest rates will climb and money will shift there as a type of holding pattern until share markets start to lift and away we go again.

That is the world as Norman sees it. Simplistic but rough and ready guideline.

Norman

Norman

 

[brains]

Very good post Norm. Its pretty much how i see it as well and a lot of investors without a property myopic view of investing would see it.

Why anyone would buy an IP now with rental yields at record lows, vacancy rates very high in most places (its a renters market), prices sky high, interest rates on the move upwards and the probability of flat or neg. capital growth in the next few years have got me absolutely stumped.

All the above are the symptoms of an assett bubble at its peak and just about to pop.

There are two disclaimers here:

1...Investors finding bargains, but they appear in any market at any time and really shouldnt be a valid reason to vote 'now'.
In any case there will be a lot more bargains around in the next few years without doubt.

2...See_Changes' scenario of markets that havnt caught the recent price boom yet and stil have great rental yields and good cap. growth going forward. Im very sceptical about this one as any market that hasnt increased by now in the recent boom would, i think, be a very suspect investment over the long -medium term - well, over any term.

A friend of mnine bought a property in Kandos (pop. 1500) and an absolute nothing town beside the cement works, even that place has had yields halved from 10% to 5% in the last 18 months.

Even Broken Hill has had rental yields reduced by this boom and places like Kalgoorie or similar (which is probably where SC is referring to) i wouldnt touch with Suggo's money

I did some research on Rockhamton (thanks for the info See_Change) and came to two conclusions:

1...I came in a bit late to benefit in the short - medium term.

2...I dont like its prospects for good growth long term but if punters are getting 9-10% yield that dont matter.


So, im still waiting for valid reasons besides the above two invalid ones to buy investment property NOW.

Im really raving this morning

Originally posted by NormH
Hi,
I voted 2 years but really it is anytime that a property meets my criteria. But if you look at my criteria it is sort of self selecting anyway as I am after a return of x as a minimum and won't buy below that as to me the investment is becoming too hot/over heated.

I suspect prices will drop some what and rents will gradually climb a tad, things will start to fall into place, numbers wise again, and I will be buying again, as those hens teeth get easier to find. .

I suspect that to be 1 to 2 years out max, mortgagee sales will help, and as interest rates raise that is when cash is king and I plan on having some ready.

Mean while I will continue to purchase the odd batch of blue chip shares and pick up some growth until the crazies leave the property market again.

I believe we follow about a 7 year cycle where shares peak, then property peaks and then short term interest peaks and then shares again. That is the pattern I believe, the time between the peaks varies but the whole cycle is about 7 years on average.

Things have been a bit of a mess this time however as the 1995(about) to 2000 share run, the smart money was starting to get out, property picks up and has then started its run. Taxi drivers are starting to talk about 'property' so it is time to get out. Interest rates will climb and money will shift there as a type of holding pattern until share markets start to lift and away we go again.

That is the world as Norman sees it. Simplistic but rough and ready guideline.

Norman

Norman