when is the best time to buy?

Considering where we are in the current property cycle,When is the best time to buy?

  • now

    Votes: 37 53.6%
  • in one years time

    Votes: 7 10.1%
  • in two years time

    Votes: 15 21.7%
  • three or more years time

    Votes: 10 14.5%

  • Total voters
    69
  • Poll closed .
Brains

I'm not looking at kalgoorlie. I'm still looking at towns on / near the Coast. Remember my name is see change

Rockhampton has moved . About 10- 15 % since I bought. I still think it has a way to go.

Where I'm looking at at the moment isn't cash flow positive, but it is in a good area ( better than Rocky from the long term fundamentals ) that I think have a fair way to move in the current cycle and will also be good long term buys . The good deals are not easy , but I think ( hopefully ) they can still be found.

It will be interesting to revist posts like this in a year or two.

See Change
 
Brains

I will also be relying on buying properties under their current market price.

In areas that have only just started moving in the last few months , I think this is a realistic aim.

It does take more time and effort.

The opportunities aren't there the way they were a year ago in Logan or Morayafield or three months ago in Rocky, but they are there.

Two weeks ago , I was talking to an agent in rocky on an unrelated matter and asked him if there was anything worthwhile on the market at the moment. He had one three bed Highset, non flood , in a good condition in a reasonable position under 100K . He said it had come on the market that morning, and at that price it would be gone quickly. He wasn't going to bother advertising it. Would have rented 150-160.

See Change
 
Well I just got this months Property ad magazine for my city and to my amazement there a high number of properties being listed with $10-20,000 in drops.. Mostly waterfront houses and land.

They are offering $10,000-$20K off on the ads. :eek:
 
Originally posted by brains
So, im still waiting for valid reasons besides the above two invalid ones to buy investment property NOW.

Firstly, Id argue that the two reasons you mentioned (finding a bargain & areas which are lagging) are pretty valid in the first place, but in response to your question: What about the ability to add value through renovation / subdivision? In a flat market, and providing you had experience and expertise, this could be one way to increase your equity to ready yourself for when the market does pick up once more.

Jamie.
 
I am not suggesting these properties have dropped in value but the ads appearing today have $10-$20k off their price tag.

Originally posted by Jamie
Hi np2003,

Are you suggesting these properties have dropped in value?

Jamie.
 
Originally posted by PT_Bear
Brains,

I'm probably preaching to the converted here, but...

If you run the same poll at anytime in the future, I'll probably give the same answer. I voted 'now', because if it's a good deal (acording to my criteria) and I'm in a position where I feel comfortable purchasing, I'll buy it. This could be now, in 1 year, or whenever.

I probably won't be buying a property in the near future, but that's got more to do with my current financial state, availablity of property that meets my criteria and my current personal goals, rather than the economic/property cycle.

I voted NOW and PT_Bear pretty much covered my reasons.
I approach each investment as a number crunching exercise and if the investment falls within the guideline I have then I will make the purchase.

This is the reason why sometimes I can't understand those of you out there that state they will not buy now! Are you saying even if a very good deal (maybe postive cashflow) came up you wouldn't consider buying?? This would be a very silly approach! I actually think those of you saying they wouldn't purchase now (and admit themselves into the loony farm! :p :) ) would if given the right deal!
We settle on a property in Warwick Qld that is two blocks from the city centre that has just been rented out (2 weeks ago). We purchased the property for $88k and it is renting at $150 as is (could do with a little bit of work, though not much), had I listened to some people on here we would have never even looked for another and we would have missed out on this property. I happy I did my own thing! It's not what I'd call a bargin, but it fell within our requirements so we went ahead.

*closes gate and heads back to padded room!*:D

Brains, you won't ever see a cent of my money (unless we have a poker night or something, gawd I'm bad at cards!) so you don't have to worry about spending it champ!! :D :p
 
What about the ability to add value through renovation / subdivision? In a flat market, and providing you had experience and expertise, this could be one way to increase your equity to ready yourself for when the market does pick up once more.

It was ages ago now but I remember something like 5 or 10 years ago the opinion on renos seemed to be how $2 spent tends to add only $1 in value. This was during the flat stage of the market anyway. Does this still apply?

I sometimes wonder how much of the increase in value after having done a bit of a reno has come about as a result of property prices having moved up during the holding period.

It must to an extent because I've heard stories from RE agents about unrenovated houses selling for more than very similar renovated one due to peoples craze for renos. Or is this just a spiel they use when sellling a renovated house (ie to make the buyer think they can get a bargain)

LB
 
Originally posted by L Bernham
... I remember something like ... the opinion on renos seemed to be .... I sometimes wonder ... It must to an extent because I've heard stories ...
LB

Hi Lester,

Do you have anything other than anecdotes and hearsay to back up your claim of $2 spent to gain $1 in value? Im just wondering if you had any hard data to contribute to this thread, or if you decided this was more suited to pushing your barrow now that the other doomsayer threads have petered out...

How many properties have you renovated?

In a flat market, and providing you had experience and expertise, this could be one way to increase your equity to ready yourself for when the market does pick up once more.

My statement was based on
(a) my own personal experience, and
(b) the experiences of those whom I have helped with renovations, or whom I have personally seen complete one.

Can you give me a real life experience of someone who has spent 50k on a reno to add 25k of value? Any real life evidence whatsoever?

I made a particular reference in my post to those people who have experience and expertise in renovations - by no means did I imply that it is as easy as the TV shows make out. But as someone who has spent weeks on end renovating, I know that it is one way, in any market, to increase the equity in a property.

I look forward hearing about your own experiences.

Jamie.
 
Originally posted by L Bernham
It was ages ago now but I remember something like 5 or 10 years ago the opinion on renos seemed to be how $2 spent tends to add only $1 in value. This was during the flat stage of the market anyway. Does this still apply?

No it doesn't. And it didn't apply 5-10 years ago either :)

Generally speaking an average renovator should be able to achieve at least 3x the investment in return, quite often higher. We work off minimum multiples of 5x & there have been people on the forum who has had value increases of 20X plus (on small renos).

It's all how you pick your properties, and what you do to them :)

It is true that many people have no idea how to add value to property & so lose money on renovations - but that's their failing not the market's. In most cases these people are renovating their PPORs for personal comfort and not trying to increase their equity.


I sometimes wonder how much of the increase in value after having done a bit of a reno has come about as a result of property prices having moved up during the holding period.

Certainly this is the case - particularly during a boom. But it's easy to work out by looking at the comps. Our last reno about 30% of the value increase was due to market movement...over about 4 months (exchange to competion) The rest was due to reconfiguring the property from the low end to the upper end of the value band for that type of dwelling.

It must to an extent because I've heard stories from RE agents about unrenovated houses selling for more than very similar renovated one due to peoples craze for renos. Or is this just a spiel they use when sellling a renovated house (ie to make the buyer think they can get a bargain)

Both. Some people (influenced by the media) believe they can buy any unrenovated property, do it up & realise a substantial return. Also many people we have spoken to have unrealistic expectations as to the cost of renovations using third parties or their own skills to do the renovation themselves.

We have seen several properties bought as a 'doer-upper' then dumped back on the market once the buyer realised that tradie costs were significantly higher than they budgeted. We are also watching the progress of one renovation which has taken them 8 months so far & still is less than half-done. In the same time we have completed 2 1/2 major renovations.

RE Agents often talk up unrenovated places because they want to sell them! They encourage people to add their own stamp on the property or make a huge CG by buying and renovating.....as usual this is only true in certain circumstances.


L Bernham, I suggest you stay away from renovations for profit. Like other areas of property investing you have only a flawed theoretical understanding of the area & would not realise what I would consider even an average return.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Do you have anything other than anecdotes and hearsay to back up your claim of $2 spent to gain $1 in value? Im just wondering if you had any hard data to contribute to this thread, or if you decided this was more suited to pushing your barrow now that the other doomsayer threads have petered out...

Jamie

Settle down boy.

This is a hunt for information from those who know more about renos than me (which would be nearly everyone). I said what I have heard and I'm putting it out there for anyone to confirm or deny. Why would I care if its true or not. Hardly doomsaying anyway.

The 2:1 ratio was based on general reno items across the board.
ie adding a pool may cost $20K but on add $15K of value
adding an extra storey could cost $60K but only add $30K of value etc
I dont know if its true ot not? I'm stating something I heard years ago. Once again isnt this what forums are for? learning?

LB
 
Hi all,

I'm actually on LBs side here!!! I've heard those stories too!!

However my practical experience in the current reno is very different:D

But then again I'm not silly enough to put in a pool or add a second storey to an IP either.

bye
 
"Settle down boy?"

Not sure what amuses me more - your arrogance, or your lack of perspective. Why is it that, because you feel unable to make money from renovations, you deride the abilities of those who have done it before, and are doing it now?

This is a hunt for information from those who know more about renos than me (which would be nearly everyone). I said what I have heard and I'm putting it out there for anyone to confirm or deny. Why would I care if its true or not. Hardly doomsaying anyway.

Most people cognizant of even the most basic forms of social interaction ask for information before thrusting opinions onto others.

The 2:1 ratio was based on general reno items across the board.

Again, do you have quotes for the items you referred to? Do you know how much a pool costs? Have you added another storey to an investment property? I cant think of one single person I know to be an astute investor who has either added a pool or built another storey onto an investment property.

I dont know if its true ot not? I'm stating something I heard years ago. Once again isnt this what forums are for? learning?

If you wanted to learn, why not ask for advice? I cant seem to find a single instance where you have asked for someone elses opinion until you are directly challenged to support you own. If you wanted to know whether there is money to be made in renovations in any or all markets , why not simply ask, instead of saying that youve heard its a myth and leaving it up to others to respond?

Jamie
 
"Settle down boy?"
Not sure what amuses me more - your arrogance,

I'm glad you were amused because it was with humour I said it.

Why is it that, because you feel unable to make money from renovations, you deride the abilities of those who have done it before, and are doing it now?

Where have I derided those abilities. I think its fantastic what people can do to a house and sell for a profit - those that do it well. I am the one who would buy these properties once done up as I have admitted that I don't know much about renos.

I can't find this source because like I said it was years ago. All I can say is that I didnt make it up but if the articles I read at that time were totally incorrect please advise.

FYI the pool and added storey were just examples. (lucky I didnt say helicopter pad like I was going to)

Thanks for info Acey - trust me I plan to stay away from renos for a profit. I think I would be like that geezer on ACA last night.

LB
 
Suggo,

The problem with your approach is that it needs to change for chages in the property market. You cant have an inflexible rule for all situations becaus the situations are always different.

As for Warwick, have you asked why you can still ge houses for $88k at the tail end of a property boom and have you considered what the future cap. growth will be like? Pretty average if you ask me.

As for renos, its no secret that in a flat market renovating is a great way to add accelerated equity rather than just waiting for time to do it. In fact i plan to do a couple myself this year.

But renos are for a small percentage of property investors and probably only a couple of people who voted 'NOW' would be considering renovating houses in the next year or two.

So im still waiting for all the people that voted 'NOW' to state their reasons for doing so.

Originally posted by suggo
I voted NOW and PT_Bear pretty much covered my reasons.
I approach each investment as a number crunching exercise and if the investment falls within the guideline I have then I will make the purchase.

This is the reason why sometimes I can't understand those of you out there that state they will not buy now! Are you saying even if a very good deal (maybe postive cashflow) came up you wouldn't consider buying?? This would be a very silly approach! I actually think those of you saying they wouldn't purchase now (and admit themselves into the loony farm! :p :) ) would if given the right deal!
We settle on a property in Warwick Qld that is two blocks from the city centre that has just been rented out (2 weeks ago). We purchased the property for $88k and it is renting at $150 as is (could do with a little bit of work, though not much), had I listened to some people on here we would have never even looked for another and we would have missed out on this property. I happy I did my own thing! It's not what I'd call a bargin, but it fell within our requirements so we went ahead.

*closes gate and heads back to padded room!*:D

Brains, you won't ever see a cent of my money (unless we have a poker night or something, gawd I'm bad at cards!) so you don't have to worry about spending it champ!! :D :p
 
I voted for now.

I will keep buying whenever I can afford them and as long as yields aren't too bad (4%+) I will keep doing so. I plan to hold my properties for 20 Years + Because of this I don't think it really matters whether bought 3 years ago, tomorrow or in another 3 years.

In 20 years time it will make little difference 'When I bought in the property cycle'

Grimey
 
Frank,

You call 4%+ yields not too bad. I wouldnt get out of bed for less than 7-8%%.


Originally posted by FrankGrimes
I voted for now.

I will keep buying whenever I can afford them and as long as yields aren't too bad (4%+) I will keep doing so. I plan to hold my properties for 20 Years + Because of this I don't think it really matters whether bought 3 years ago, tomorrow or in another 3 years.

In 20 years time it will make little difference 'When I bought in the property cycle'

Grimey
 
Originally posted by brains
Frank,

You call 4%+ yields not too bad. I wouldnt get out of bed for less than 7-8%%.

Not many places will get 8% upfront and get GOOD longterm capital growth. Yes, there is definitely exceptions to the rule.

Capital growth is where you make the money - not rental yields, yes it's a bonus but longterm growth is more important. In time rentals yields will increase.

I'd be very suprised if you could get anywhere near 8% in Sydney or Melbourne at anytime of the cycle. This is excluding adding value by renos, subdivisions etc.

Grimes
 
You could achieve 8-9% in outlying cheaper areas of Sydney (Mt Druitt area) about 4 years ago. If i would have known what i know now i would have bought as many as i could have then but ive done ok all the same.


But if you look at your 4% gross yield and say 2% nett against interest rates that wil be rising possibly to 8-9% in the next couple of years added to flat growth for the next say 5 years thats not good investing sense and i cant understand how anyone can say it is regardless of how long they intend to hold the assett because you will be able to buy the same (or similar) assett in the next few years at a better price and hence a much better gross yield.

Its basic investing sense and i havnt heard a decent argument otherwise.

As an aside here is a PDF that was posted elsewhere on the forum today. Its called 'Basic Property Investing' and i thought the point #1 on page 4 and the graph on page 5 would be relevant to this thread, as ive said above its a basic investing principal to not buy an assett at the absolute top of a price peak. On the graph we would at this point in time be aboutwhere the O in 'position' is.

http://www.hudson-institute.com/mem...asic_Property_Investment_Hudson_Institute.pdf


Originally posted by FrankGrimes
Not many places will get 8% upfront and get GOOD longterm capital growth. Yes, there is definitely exceptions to the rule.

Capital growth is where you make the money - not rental yields, yes it's a bonus but longterm growth is more important. In time rentals yields will increase.

I'd be very suprised if you could get anywhere near 8% in Sydney or Melbourne at anytime of the cycle. This is excluding adding value by renos, subdivisions etc.

Grimes
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Brains hi,
thanks for the pdf, I have never seen anyone draw up the
interaction of the 3 main investment areas like that before. It
seems to clearly show what I was trying to explain.

I was interested to see that Shares section was longer than
property an in turn longer than interest rates. I always considered
the cycles as variable but the long term cycle of about 7 years.

But thinking about it is probably pretty right.

I have failed to grasp what they are trying to show on page 6
of the pdf however, titled '2 - Location'

ta again for the link

Norman
 
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