When will the All Ords hit 5000?

Andrew_A

Andrew_A

With the stock market (ASX) easing off all time record highs. I was wondering what peoples thoughts were on when we will hit 5000 in the ASX.

Based on previous booms the ASX is anything but overvalued, I certainly don't think there is a bubble. Resource stocks and export businesses + any business serving China seem to be very good areas to invest in general.
 
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Its a good question, but even though the share market is not overvalued no one is suggesting prices are going to rise much in the next year or so.

I would be happy to bet that median house prices in Melbourne or Sydney will increase 25% before the Asx rises from 4,000 to 5,000. ;)
 
Michael Yardney said:
Its a good question, but even though the share market is not overvalued no one is suggesting prices are going to rise much in the next year or so.

I would be happy to bet that median house prices in Melbourne or Sydney will increase 25% before the Asx rises from 4,000 to 5,000. ;)
Click to expand...

I assume you're banking on the economic clock when you say that Michael.

See Change
 
Michael Yardney said:
Its a good question, but even though the share market is not overvalued no one is suggesting prices are going to rise much in the next year or so.

I would be happy to bet that median house prices in Melbourne or Sydney will increase 25% before the Asx rises from 4,000 to 5,000. ;)
Click to expand...
Well I'm suggesting the ASX is going to rise, if that counts for anything, and more so than Australian property, but we all have our bias.

I think Thommo's call about the precious metals could be a very good one though.
 
It will deinately be 29 Sept 2009 :p

Want me to give some justifications so I can get some press (based on false assumptions of course...)
 
Opions cost money

Seems worth more discussion based on recent days.

Index is nudging 4200 and is not far away from March highs. Again the sentiment is still very bearish in the US, yet the AUS market is still alive and kicking...

Food for thought anyhow.
 
Perhaps the previous High in March followed by the plateau/dip will be followed by a big surge before a crash/softening in a similar vain to the property market (02 high, dip, 03-04 high, crash/softening).

At least that is what my crystal ball is telling me :)
 
Ok

So we had a short period of consolidation between 3900 and 4000 , which occured after the market had confirmed a new high in early March. (Confirmed by lower lows and lower highs since then ).

After this period of consolidation we've got a breakout on the up side , with fairly strong movement in the last week ( I'm happy , my current holdings are up 6 % since I bought them about a month ago )

After a change of direction ( after new high in March ) for the market to then turn around and move up ( though not confirmed at this stage ) in T/A terms this indicates reasonable underlying strength in the market and could indicate further strong upwards movement.

When the Market broke down through the long term resistence around 2800 in early 2003, one could have expected a bigger drop however that the market was able to go back , indicated the underlying strength and we had a very nice upwards run after that.

Potential the same could occure at this stage, with a break through the recent high, leading to a longer up run. Then again it may not ...... :rolleyes:

We could have a double top , with the prices rising to similar levels to march , and then if the bulls run out of steam ( and money ) we go into another downturn.

So what's does this all mean and what's going to happen ??

Buggered if I know. :confused: :confused: I threw out my share trading Crystal ball out a while ago ( I'm happy with my Property investing one though ...) . I'll just react to what the markets doing.

5000 ?? Time will tell ...... :cool:

See Change
 
pete_w said:
veering off topic but what happened to the reefcap forum?

stying on topic, my predicition: early 2008 :p
Click to expand...

Down for upgrade. They said before it stopped that it would be several weeks, though I can't remember when it's coming back ...

See Change
 
The ASX 200 briefly touched all time highs yesterday, then retreated. I predicted a month ago, at the bottom of the sell off, that all time highs would not be made again this year, while the market got back it's confidence. I was very wrong.

BHP and RIO will shoot up today, and should carry the index way above the record.

All Ords [roughly top 500] still off highs, due to smaller caps not fully recovered yet.

See ya's.
 
I'm thinking that if we do make news highs and it starts moving up from there on good volume then we could be in for another strong run , with 5000 being easily do-able.

My shares are up about 10 % in the last few weeks , with about 5 % in the last week. Not sure about the overall market volume , but the one's I'm following seem to be increasing volume as they go up , which is a strong sign.

See Change
 
Hi all,

Reefcap upgrade is virtually complete, currently waiting for the new setup to be approved by ASIC..................

<We're waiting on ASIC to give the go ahead. It looks like only another week or so, but very close. If you wish to let others know it would be appreciated. The new forum will be completely new and apparently its the latest on the market, so some good features. Also Reefcap will come back fully licenced (not just me as an individual) so again, possibly the only forum owned by a licensed company.
Nick
>

Got this email last week
 
Share market moved up strongly today with a record high on the close.

For some people this could be interpreted as implying there is a possibility that the market could continue to move strongly , in a upwards direction for a while ( though this is my opinion , given purely for educational purposes , and anyone seeking to invest in the share market should get the opinion of the appropriate professional advisors ... :D ) :eek:

See Change
 
Oh what fun

Is anybody else enjoying this doom and gloom bear market as much as me?

Record oil prices, bombs, still plenty of doom and gloom, housing bubbles, yet...

Where are all the bears? :)
 
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