When will the All Ords hit 5000?

[bluestorm]

Firstly who cares when it goes to 5000 again, it has to hold at this level and then go up further otherwise its just a 'blip on the screen'.

Secondly the lack of responses to your post further and the lack of posts in general to the above posters further reinforce my belief that

shares will outperform resiential property in australia on a 5-10 year basis.

Compare this to prior to the GFC when people on this forum were madly talking about 'investing in property for capital growth' and then cycling the profits into shares to create income. Well this topic is now dead on its feet.

So it hit 5000 for a little bit. It will come back. The problem with the forum now is that unless your a bull, your seen as D&G (the longer-termers have seen it all, blah, blah).

Foreclosures ramp up as 30% of mortgages are underwater

Now 27% of homeowners with mortgages owe more than their homes are worth. That's up from 23.2% a quarter earlier.

The US is still messed up, and the DOW rising only really on the printing of money, but say anything bad, or that things will hit a wall, and 2011/2012 will be bad, and your a D&G.

Start talking about "investment" related impacts due to PIIGS, US, China, on Australia, an the opinions get shot down.

Call the All Ords at 4200 by Oct/Nov 2011 and your a D&G.

So we keep ourselves occupied with Assange discussions, rather than endless Bull run, rainbows and lollypops

 

[oracle]

So it hit 5000 for a little bit. It will come back. The problem with the forum now is that unless your a bull, your seen as D&G (the longer-termers have seen it all, blah, blah).

Foreclosures ramp up as 30% of mortgages are underwater



The US is still messed up, and the DOW rising only really on the printing of money, but say anything bad, or that things will hit a wall, and 2011/2012 will be bad, and your a D&G.

Start talking about "investment" related impacts due to PIIGS, US, China, on Australia, an the opinions get shot down.

Call the All Ords at 4200 by Oct/Nov 2011 and your a D&G.

So we keep ourselves occupied with Assange discussions, rather than endless Bull run, rainbows and lollypops

Bluestorm, go check the history books and you will see one thing for a fact. No one has been able to predict the direction of stock market with certainty for a long time. And it is proven by the worlds richest people. None of them make their money by betting on which way the stock market is going to go.

So to me, it is bit of time wasting trying to predict where the stock market is going to be. It can very well be higher or lower than current levels. No one can say. I can go back 7-9months and find you threads where respected poster here were guaranteeing based on data at that point US is entering a double dip and DOW will be back to 6000. PIIGS will default and EURO as currency is doomed. DOW just hit 2.5yrs high. Had someone mentioned this 8 months ago people would have thought you were crazy to even think DOW anywhere close to where it is today. I don't care whether it is because Bernanke keeps printing money. That is not the point. The point is people have been proven wrong time and time again about the direction of the stock market.

So it doesn't matter where the All Ords will be in Oct/Nov 2011. The point is what are you going to do if you are wrong about your prediction? Are you going to buy or still watch? What are you going to do now when All Ords is around 5000 mark? Are you going to do nothing, buy, sell? Put on your investing hat and decide whether the market is undervalued or overvalued. Knowing this will make you far more money in the long term then speculating on where All Ords will be in 8 months time.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[redwing]

That was just bait for this one Oracle

George Soros
He became known as "the Man Who Broke the Bank of England" after he made a reported $1 billion during the 1992 Black Wednesday UK currency crises.

Soros correctly anticipated that the British government would have to devalue the pound sterling.

Though you're right, no one gets it 100% correct 100% of the time

The bears are getting savaged at the moment, however I'm happy to be a bear or a bull depending on the market

I'm also learning to admit my mistakes quicker when it comes to the stock market

 

[oracle]

That was just bait for this one Oracle



Though you're right, no one gets it 100% correct 100% of the time

The bears are getting saved at the moment, however I'm happy to be a bear or a bull depending on the market

I'm also learning to admit my mistakes quicker when it comes to the stock market

Yes redwing, you will always find a few people who made it big by speculating. But again that was in 1992 nearly 20yrs ago. I don't think he would have stopped speculating after 1992. But his record is not as impressive after that event. If he was so good at it and could do it consistently why is he not in the top 10 richest people by now?

If you feel speculating can make you billions like it did to Soros Good luck!

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[redwing]

From the Motley Fool

Private investors have rushed into the market. Is this a red flag?
Bah! Just as I was going to take advantage of the recent stock market dip to top up my portfolio this has to happen. New research is published showing private investors are piling into shares at a record rate.

As many stock market pundits will tell you, a flood of private investors into the market is pretty much the greatest contrarian signal of all, and here it is, flashing red.

The figures came from the Investment Management Association, which showed private investors buying £1.7 billion worth of shares in December, the highest amount for over a decade. In 2010, retail investors bought some £7.5 billion worth of equities, up from £7.3 billion the year before. That's the best figure for a decade. ISAs also enjoyed a bumper year.

Forget Egypt, the oil price, the China property bubble, Japan's slow death or the Indian stock market slide, surely this must be the greatest "sell" signal of all.

and

This private investor isn't piling into the market, but he is looking for value.

I'm not expecting great things of the stock market this year, but they will be bright spots, and I hope to find one or two of them. I don't share the sudden optimism of most other private investors, but I'm not going to let them scare me away either

 

[Sunfish]

I hope no newbys are considering the stock market just because it sounds like a good idea. Unless you have a firm opinion based on a lot of reading and research, now is NOT the time to jump in.

 

[oracle]

I hope no newbys are considering the stock market just because it sounds like a good idea. Unless you have a firm opinion based on a lot of reading and research, now is NOT the time to jump in.

I agree, valuations don't look attractive with good margin of safety anymore. Good time to buy was between Apr-Aug 2010, when KRudd introduced RSPT and European debt crisis. There were a lot of good companies selling at attractive valuations with margin of safety. I am glad I bought then. Portfolio return 32% this FY as of Sunday vs 19.2% All Ord Accum Index.

I have been saving since then waiting for the next opportunity market presents to increase the portfolio size again. I believe we should see some form of correction within next 2 months once the reporting season is over since we have had a pretty good run since Oct last year.

Need to build up decent size portfolio to be able to live off dividends.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

From the Motley Fool



and

Good comments, all valid.
However here is the key look at the sectors that have shown the greatest growth: small caps/turnarounds/cyclicals.

Large value shares have not ridden the cycle nearly so much as this is where i am focussed for my US shares. Many of these are trading on very reasonable long term valuations. However they are relatively boring, so not much market interest.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

So it hit 5000 for a little bit. It will come back. The problem with the forum now is that unless your a bull, your seen as D&G (the longer-termers have seen it all, blah, blah).


The US is still messed up, and the DOW rising only really on the printing of money, but say anything bad, or that things will hit a wall, and 2011/2012 will be bad, and your a D&G.

Start talking about "investment" related impacts due to PIIGS, US, China, on Australia, an the opinions get shot down.

Call the All Ords at 4200 by Oct/Nov 2011 and your a D&G.

So we keep ourselves occupied with Assange discussions, rather than endless Bull run, rainbows and lollypops

Yes there are definately issues that could compromise the markets. I have suggested 2012/13 as especially worrying times due to the PIIGS, + rising inflation will have a big impact on US debt as well.

However in my opinion, this doesnt mean being a total bear. Look for opportunities that satisfy the risks you highlight. This is where stock selection comes into play.

Remember as well that companies are like living organisms. They adjust to changing circumstances. Dont necessarily expect companies to be effected to the same degree as during the GFC.