Which Capital City will have the highest CG's???

[stretchy]

I predicted a few months back that Perth would have a $400k median by the end of 2006. I thought it was a safe bet, but no-one agreed with me.

Now, I will say that if Sydney's median is around $520k, and Perth's is about $370 ...

Well, a 20% gain in Perth's price over the next 18 months (ahh, the famous 18 month prediction) = $444k

What if we had a further 10% fall in Sydney hmmm = $468k

..fun with figures...

Now, obviously nobody agreed with me a couple of months ago that the Perth median would reach $400k before the end of the year. Then again, most people on this forum said that interest rates woudln't rise.

Next question - when will Perth's median overtake Sydney's??

haha - a question which only so recently was one of a delusional mind suddenly has an air of remote possibility???

All true - also you should consider the long-term effects of what you propose. The higher it goes, the harder it falls... historically Perth has been lower priced than Sydney and Melbourne (just look at the population for an easy understanding) and that long term trend will [SIZE=-1]probably result in Perth underperforming for quite awhile to even things out.

API had an article that showed long term median prices a few issues ago - Perth had a higher median than Melbourne in 1980 (at the end of the last big resource boom) yet by 2000 Melbourne was ahead by over 100k. I cannot see any reason why this wont be the case in the coming years. It makes sense - once the shine comes off the boom Perth doesnt have much that other cities cant provide in respect to economic opportunities.

Of course, this is a moot point to people that are currently enjoying 15+% growth per year on their existing IP's
[/SIZE]

 

[kph]

That being the case, what are the economic opportunities of the other states ?
Is Sydney a financial centre, and Melbourne a manufacturing centre.?
Qld is resource and tourism based, and all states have some sort of agricultural industry as well.

WA will always be resource and agriculture based , so will 20 to 30 yrs worth of resource development sustain us ?
I don't mean a sustained boom, but just ongoing resource development and industry.
IF that is the case, then I don't see any reason for property values to correct anytime soon, and more likely they might just show moderate to slow ongoing growth.
kp

 

[stretchy]

I should have clarified - I dont expect a huge fall, just lower than average growth over the long term to correct the imbalance.

Sydney has a huge financial sector (with the associated pay levels) and Melbourne is home base to many of Australia's biggest corporations (BHP, Telstra, etc). Brisbane has the tourism and 'lifestyle' factors (although I cant see much difference between it and Perth). Over the long term, people will want to move to the greater opportunities those cities represent. I stress the word long-term - i.e. 10+ years from now! It would be nice to see Perth develop into something much more than it is now, but I have the feeling our remoteness just makes it hard to justify on an economic basis.

Personally, I plan on buying in Brisbane. Underlying demand is growing stronger than supply (http://economics.hia.com.au/media/ForecastMar06.pdf) and the affordability factor isnt too bad (unlike Sydney). Im a data-driven investor though...

 

[kph]

Agree somewhat.... the isolation factor will always go against Perth.

But in terms of opportunities, there are probably more burnt out Sydneysiders wanting to leave the place than there are opportunity seekers wanting to join the rat race.

Great place to be if you have the means, but not much fun if you are on struggle street ( that quote from a sydneysider who left, and lobbed up over here...)

I don't see WA as suffering from lower than average growth for the future, just revert to normal growth once this current frenzy is over.

Its more a matter of a 'catchup' atm and not an imbalance.

One thing that is hard to ignore is some of the backwardness that still exists in Perth.
eg 1..crackpot taxi service where it is run by a co-op who have no authority to compel taxis to respond to bookings. ie.. you are not guaranteed a taxi will turn up even if you book one, which is great if you are trying to get to the airport at 5:00 in the morning.
eg 2.. no public transport frm the airport neither bus nor rail. Must be the only capital city with such a 'feature'

kp

 

[FrankGrimes]

But in terms of opportunities, there are probably more burnt out Sydneysiders wanting to leave the place than there are opportunity seekers wanting to join the rat race.

Sydney isn't that bad.. Really, I have been to most places in Australia and wouldn't want to live anywhere else

That aside, I wouldn't buy in Perth at the moment as I don't think the growth is sustainable in the long term. The fact it's overtaken Melbourne and Brisbane is enough to keep me away.. But depending how the current resource boom pans out I could be wrong, but if the boom ends there will be a decent correction in WA.

EDIT

My picks at the moment would be Melbourne, it's undervalued compared to Sydney and Brisbane and is great place to live and work.

 

[stretchy]

My picks at the moment would be Melbourne, it's undervalued compared to Sydney and Brisbane and is great place to live and work.

I thought that as well, but the supply-demand imbalance in Melbourne isnt as pronouced as Sydney and Brisbane. The extra pressure from supply not meeting demand should cause prices to rise quicker. Well thats the theory anyway I know statistics can lie, but they are better to rely on than pure intuition (in my case anyway) which can be influenced by too many factors.

Many would disagree with that last statement however...

 

[sue78]

the only problem with Perth is that it isn't justifiable. there aren't even that many good jobs there and the salary is lower than melb and syd. Isn't Adelaide a larger city than Perth? and adelaide was bad enough. Almost everyone I knew left coz there was just no good job opportunities.

people are driving up the prices but they are just silly imo.

i would prefer to invest in a style more based on facts and figures rather than trends i.e Buffetology, he never bought Tech stocks during the dotcom craze.

 

[stretchy]

Sue, Perth is quite alot bigger than Adelaide - almost 500,000 more people. And there are a boatload of really high paying jobs just begging for the taking - the resource boom really is that big right at the moment. My partner works for BHP, and quite a number of her work mates live in the eastern states. They stay here for 2 weeks then go back home for a weekend - the money is that good they can afford to do this on a long-term basis. If you have the right skill set, Perth is a gold mine right now.

 

[FrankGrimes]

1 Sydney, New South Wales 4,254,894
2 Melbourne, Victoria 3,634,233
3 Brisbane, Queensland 1,810,943
4 Perth, Western Australia 1,477,815
5 Adelaide, South Australia 1,129,269
6 Newcastle, New South Wales 510,885
7 Gold Coast-Tweed, Queensland/New South Wales 482,037
* Canberra-Queanbeyan, Australian Capital Territory/New South Wales (see note) 371,441
8 Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 324,786
9 Wollongong, New South Wales 275,883
10 Sunshine Coast, Queensland 212,864
11 Greater Hobart, Tasmania 202,138

Always thought Adelaide was bigger.. There you go

 

[sue78]

Sue, Perth is quite alot bigger than Adelaide - almost 500,000 more people. And there are a boatload of really high paying jobs just begging for the taking - the resource boom really is that big right at the moment. My partner works for BHP, and quite a number of her work mates live in the eastern states. They stay here for 2 weeks then go back home for a weekend - the money is that good they can afford to do this on a long-term basis. If you have the right skill set, Perth is a gold mine right now.

I forgot about the resource sector. There are loads of those jobs around and I wonder why nobody wants them or maybe there aren't enough qualified people for them.

After I graduated, I just couldn't get a job, even as low as $25k!! Went to Sydney and got a job in a matter of weeks, Marketing Manager for a fresh grad on $45k p.a These kind of opportunities opens the door for $60k+ jobs

Those opportunities are unheard of in Adelaide/Perth. I have friends in Perth and that's what I've been told.

I guess that's why cities like Melb, Syd, London, NYC, Tokyo and Singapore and HK are so expensive, there rae so much more better work opportunities.

Though now that I have a family of my own, I am in Brissy for the better lifetsyle. Brissy has the best of both worlds.

 

[Pete]

Sue,

I'm surpised that you could have forgotten the resource sector in WA. It is currently driving one of the strongest economic growth phases in our lifetime!

There are unlimited job opportunities. For example, students are leaving full time courses - say two years into a four year degree - to take up employment. Even on incomes that put them in the top tax bracket. That is > $150,000 p.a. income.

The unemployment rate for WA is a historical low of 3.9%.

Perth real estate has had capital growth of the order of 15% per annum for the last five years and the market is still rising.

New home starts exceed that of NSW which has three times the population.

Economic forecasts are for the resource boom to be stronger next year than last year.

If you investigate the facts and figures I'm sure you'll find plenty to support investing in Perth.

I note that right now, I am personally wary about further investing in Perth - due to lack of diversification - in the heated market.

With Perth not on your investment radar, where do think is a good place to invest?

regards,

 

[emw]

Sue,

For example, students are leaving full time courses - say two years into a four year degree - to take up employment. Even on incomes that put them in the top tax bracket. That is > $150,000 p.a. income.

regards,

$150k?! For newbies? How on earth can one earn that kind of money, if you'll pardon the pun? Please do explain! I'd fly over tomorrow if I could get me a piece of that

It sure would earn me a few deposits!

Ed

 

[FrankGrimes]

I guess that's why cities like Melb, Syd, London, NYC, Tokyo and Singapore and HK are so expensive, there rae so much more better work opportunities.

Pretty much spot on, that's why I suggested Melbourne is cheap compared to Sydney (or Sydney is too expensive). Even Brisbane to an extent has far fewer employment opportunities, if I moved to Brisbane I would struggle to get a job and IF I did I would be on 1/2 what I'm on in Sydney. In my case moving interstate for a cheaper lifestyle would be a false economy and I would be no better off.

But this depends alot on industry. My better half is a Physio for example and she would have no problems getting work in any City.

 

[Pete]

Ed,

Newbies with useful skills - engineering or trade - for the resource projects. Even unskilled people can earn large amounts.

Maybe check on line or newspapers or even start a new thread on somersoft?

I'm sure you'll find a way.

regards,

 

[lll]

Gday

i reckon there will be pockets in every city that will grow in the next few years. i dont think you can generalise it by saying that one city will grow fater than another. You can get good value in every city if you know what yr doing.

Cheers

Lozza

 

[lll]

Sue,

I'm surpised that you could have forgotten the resource sector in WA. It is currently driving one of the strongest economic growth phases in our lifetime!

There are unlimited job opportunities. For example, students are leaving full time courses - say two years into a four year degree - to take up employment. Even on incomes that put them in the top tax bracket. That is > $150,000 p.a. income.

The unemployment rate for WA is a historical low of 3.9%.

Perth real estate has had capital growth of the order of 15% per annum for the last five years and the market is still rising.

New home starts exceed that of NSW which has three times the population.

Economic forecasts are for the resource boom to be stronger next year than last year.

If you investigate the facts and figures I'm sure you'll find plenty to support investing in Perth.

I note that right now, I am personally wary about further investing in Perth - due to lack of diversification - in the heated market.

With Perth not on your investment radar, where do think is a good place to invest?

regards,

I love Perth, been there a few times . I Would love an apartment overlooking the swan river and the CBD in the South Perth area

Cheers

Lozza

 

[muney]

I love Perth, been there a few times . I Would love an apartment overlooking the swan river and the CBD in the South Perth area

Cheers

Lozza

my mate rang me from perth today..reckons it was on the sunday times yesterday that there were people lining up for 120m for sales of a CBD apartment building..any1 read it?? pls enlighten us east coasters

 

[kph]

Didn't read it but it might have been a new Finbar apartment in Hay Street.

Heard about it two weeks ago from the marketing agent. 80 odd apartments.
He was saying that there was not marketing campaign, no mailouts to existing Finbar clients ( as per previous new Finbar releases) and no expressions of interest this time. Only straight contracts on the day.
Doors open at 12:00 pm.

He expected it to sell out on the day.

It may have been this one ?

kp

 

[Kingbrown]

From another thread I posted in:

From WA Business News May 15th

"Perth-based property developer Finbar International Ltd has sold out its latest apartment release, Domus apartments at Hay Street Perth in its first weekend on offer.

The Domus complex, made up of 80 two bedroom apartments and one commercial lot, generated sales of $32.3 million dollars after only becoming available on Saturday morning.

The development is located at 375 Hay Street in the city's east end."

_________________________


Additionally, I read that there are currently about 4,000 properties listed for sale in Perth....which is bugger all!!!!

 

[gooram]

Didn't read it but it might have been a new Finbar apartment in Hay Street.

Heard about it two weeks ago from the marketing agent. 80 odd apartments.
He was saying that there was not marketing campaign, no mailouts to existing Finbar clients ( as per previous new Finbar releases) and no expressions of interest this time. Only straight contracts on the day.
Doors open at 12:00 pm.

He expected it to sell out on the day.

It may have been this one ?

kp

Yep I got an email about these apartments. Mostly 2 bed 2 bath, some 1 bedders in there too.
1 bdrm from 290-330k
2 bdrm from 400-455k