Which shares to buy now?

[Pete_d]

Correct me if im wrong but i dont think there was much of a bull market post 87. From memory there was a bear market recovery in early 88, but basically the market went up and down over the next 5 years without doing much at all.

My trusty graph getting wheeled out again...pretty volitile following '87 crash.

'88 and '89 had annual return of approximately 17% p.a. but was down around -15% in '90, then up again +32% in '91.

So had you bought at the end of '87 by end '91 you would have been up around 53% (or 11.5% pa) if you matched the index.


Click to enlarge

 

[evand]

Yes, it was a bit iffy for a few years. Hows that for a correction at the end of the chart.

Correct me if im wrong but i dont think there was much of a bull market post 87. From memory there was a bear market recovery in early 88, but basically the market went up and down over the next 5 years without doing much at all.

 

[Trogdor]

Don't be in a hurry! Play with the kids. Go fishing.

Very wise words Sunfish!! Couldnt agree more.

 

[eggnog]

could you put that up in log scale please

 

[Ajax]

Still Nope!

Last Monday was the only day it ever traded below 66 with an intraday low of 62.62. Wed had a high of 73.50.

Wrong....Wednesday 22nd October RIO had an intra day low of $72.21 and an intraday high of $79.64

Quite possible for Josko's share to have been RIO. Been following it closely since a friend asked for my suggestions in early October of which stocks to buy (her partner wanted her to buy $50k of stocks..whatever she chose)...I suggested RIO, WBC, ASX
RIO has fallen quite a lot since then.

 

[evand]

Ok, but we'll lose the dramatic effect.

could you put that up in log scale please

 

[chilliaa]

Interesting comment, chilliaa. I wonder how many investors who have used margin loans would actually be left in the market at present??? I would have thought that a good many of them would have been forced out of the market already?

Thoughts, anyone?

Cheers
LynnH

No not really, many would have used lines of credit to keep them going, especially the bigger players with full service brokers.
In time you will know when they have been fully washed through when the ABS releases its data on the total value of margin lending.
From memory as of about March or June 08 it was down from its peak in 07 but not hugely.

In the back of my mind when im buying i try to avoid companies that have been popular over the last year, because i figure they will still be tied up in margin loans, thus they could come under pressure.

 

[Sunfish]

Wrong....Wednesday 22nd October RIO had an intra day low of $72.21 and an intraday high of $79.64

I was about to say "One of us is using faulty data." but I realised that I had neglected to download Wednesday's data.

I was always aware that it wasn't a genuine daytrade but I was willing to let it pass to the keeper. So it became a trade over a few days and it was near perfect.... just about the bottom, just about the top.

That good and only a few of hundred profit. Sportsbet is offering $1.10 on an Obama victory. That's $100 on $10k on a "sure thing"

Sorry Josko, I'm not trying to give you a hard time.

 

[Sunfish]

By Evand
"Yes, I'm a contrarian, just like everyone else"

I like it. Can I keep it?

 

[evand]

yes mate, i havn't copyrighted it as yet.

I like it. Can I keep it?

 

[Ebbie]

Woo hoo made $280! I have done my first trade. Bought at $62.86, SOLD: @77.00. So, I'm going to stick it all back in and try again. Today is the day.

I figure I will only play with what I can lose while I'm learning.

Regards JO

Hi Jo, I just did my first trade and made $280 too! I bought RIO shares last week for $67.80 and sold them on Wednesday for $75.50. I bought them back again the next day for $67!

They closed at $64.10 today but I'm hoping they bounce back next week so I can sell them again.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

OK boys and girls....this is where it gets serious.
Keep in mind shares get locked out on big intraday falls, and you can caught on positions you didn't intend....and burn your buttt.

First Japan, then Europe, and NYSE about to shed blood.

A lot of self funded retirees are going to suffer next week....and there isn't likely to be a quick turnaround.

SF, anyone who wants to attribute the BDI fall to strong USD or new ships coming on line is now a dill. BDI is an ominous sign of how seriously China will cut production.

 

[craigb]

i think the house prices are declining , as we all know the current data on prices realy is not current and usually 3/4 monthes ago, the numbers should come out soon on the sales during "these" tough times, as we are all looking at the june /july figs,
ps. i called my agent to see for any further news for the sale of our ppor and we laughed after talking he said this call was the 4th time the phone rang this week. not good!

 

[steveadl]

Geez, am I the only one getting tempted by Westfield (WDC) at these levels? After Friday's drop, up to a 7% yield. Gearing is relatively low at 36%. Or am I just stupid? God knows I've made many ASX mistakes in the past.

 

[manny]

Hi Steve,

you are correct, Westfields is a good stock & would present a great buying opportunity... the key is to look at the fundaments, returns, P/E, gearing ratio (which you did say is low), etc... With many funds offloading (cashing in) stocks & many mum-dad investors selling up (due to fear), many opportunities exist atm... Remember, when it is a bull market gread takes over & when its a bear market (like we ar currently in) fear has taken over... The key is not to follow the herd & do your own thing...

Remember, don't forget the rules attained through investing 101, don't put all your eggs in one basket (diversify), so don't just buy 1 quality stock, grab a hand full while at it

Good Luck & happy buying...

Cheers,

Manny.

 

[GreatPig]

Keep in mind shares get locked out on big intraday falls

What does that mean? As far as I'm aware, there's no down limit on the ASX.

GP

 

[Welcome]

Geez, am I the only one getting tempted by Westfield (WDC) at these levels? After Friday's drop, up to a 7% yield. Gearing is relatively low at 36%. Or am I just stupid? God knows I've made many ASX mistakes in the past.

I'm eyeing off OIF when the trend changes direction.... about an 18% yield!

 

[ernie]

Geez, am I the only one getting tempted by Westfield (WDC) at these levels? After Friday's drop, up to a 7% yield. Gearing is relatively low at 36%. Or am I just stupid? God knows I've made many ASX mistakes in the past.

Put me in the WDC watchers group as well. With interest rates coming down those yields are looking better and better.

 

[seank]

With more risk on the downside you would be expecting yields of at leat 7%, whether these can be sustained in future is another question.
if you want to take a "gamble" cwn is trading- pe of 1.7 and 7.6% dividend.
mqg - pe of 4.96 and 11.8% div
IPL - pe of 7.34 and 38% div

Really in this market anything with a PE over 10 you would consider expensive, unless it is a defensive stock, and once again yields should be 7% plus, considering the potential downside.

 

[Nathan]

CNP.....

Balls Of Steel...
@ these current prices its worth a punt, 100k for $7k, last year that woulda beenn $800k+

distributions based on last year and forcasted for the return, will be 40c per share or $40K+ for 100k or $7k invested.