Who saw this coming?

[natedog]

I also winced at the sheeple's comments.... and I continue to do so!

When are people going to wake up and realize what is going on with the economy, both nationally & globally? I am stunned at how ignorant most people are to the current macro issues and how they will in turn translate into secular market pressures.... like, ahh, property, commodities, shares, equities... etc, etc....

I am not a D&G'er, far from it. But one thing is for sure.... we are definitely NOT on the cusp of another property boom. Far from it. (in general market terms)

Lending is going to get a whole lot tougher as banks struggle with the international money market roller coaster that is in serious trouble right now.... no, not next year or in 10 years. Right now. If people don't grasp what the implications of QE are (or know what it even stands for) then they should learn. Learn FAST. The ripple affect reaches all investment asset classes... bar none. There is a silver lining though.... ....and the smart money has been aggressively positioning of late.

Just watch and learn from the big boys & us little folk can make some spare change as well!!!

Oh, and I did see it coming:

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=915216#post915216

Serious question for you...QE....Money printing whatever ya want to call it.

in your opinion what are the implications for these 3 asset classes?

short simple answer is fine

i am trying to become a little more informed on the topic...as i am seriously just an unsophisticated investor in property...boring buy and hold for long term.

oz property
gold
shares

Cheers,
Nath

 

[Peter 14.7]

Hi ID

Definately not on the cusp of a boom.

Also, for those who saw it coming, did you pull the pin in time and take a profit.

Cheers MTR

Good Question and Where They ever in the game? That is had IPs.

Regards, Peter

 

[Indifference]

Hi ID

Definately not on the cusp of a boom.

Also, for those who saw it coming, did you pull the pin in time and take a profit.

Cheers MTR

Yes...actually I sold my PPOR (mid-2010) & moved capital to another asset class. Economic timing just happened to be perfectly aligned with a job transfer. Might get another PPOR next year.

Serious question for you...QE....Money printing whatever ya want to call it.

in your opinion what are the implications for these 3 asset classes?

short simple answer is fine

..........

oz property - down or sideways
gold - up, up & away
shares - overall flat or down in mid term. Some big names will fold or need big $$$ public rescue

QE / monetizing debt is bad, bad, bad, in the long run UNLESS productivity can grow commensurate with debt growth..... <--- this is not happening & is impossible at the current QE growth rate. Unless you can triple productivity overnight.....

Some big financial firms are bordering on insolvency and if not for the $16-Trillion in Fed funding lifelines, many would have collapsed already. A 3 fold monetary base expansion of the US $ since 2008 can't even put a dent in the US productivity problem... Ie. Unemployment. Don't believe the official US unemployment is at 8.1% unless you agree with manipulation of the "participation rate" by ~368K decrease in order to print a lower unemployment than reality.

Good Question and Where They ever in the game? That is had IPs.

Regards, Peter

Yes, I own a CIP... have done for about 8 years. Previous resi IP sold a while back & I have never regretted it.

 

[Peter 14.7]

CIP is current investment property?

Peter 14.7

 

[starter]

Cip is commercial ip.

 

[Peter 14.7]

Cip is commercial ip.

Thanks Peter

 

[Fifth]

A fair few people saw this coming. Melbourne couldn't defy logic and common sense forever. The debate now is whether Melbourne has bottomed or not. I vote for the latter, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. Predicting property rises/falls/stagnations in Australia is like pinning the tail on the donkey blindfolded and inebriated in a zero gravity facility.

 

[matto_]

very easy to predict in hindsight. lots of people can then point to the indicators (lowering auction rates etc).

Given the LT nature of Prop's you dont really need to pick the bottom, to make money.

 

[joeExpat]

Definately not on the cusp of a boom.

Also, for those who saw it coming, did you pull the pin in time and take a profit.

Yes I sold my house in coastal NSW in 2010, the area has declined since then. Still have an apartment in Sydney though. Australian property is still very over valued and has a large downside risk, way too early to jump back in yet in my opinion.

 

[Fifth]

very easy to predict in hindsight. lots of people can then point to the indicators (lowering auction rates etc).

Given the LT nature of Prop's you dont really need to pick the bottom, to make money.

You don't need to pick the bottom to make money but doing so will speed along your financial journey.

 

[Peter 14.7]

OK, opinons please:

I am thinking of getting one or two SEQLD town houses. Very new and cashflow positive. I can fix 80% for 5years at 5.69%. Strategy is long term hold.

Thought for and against please.

Should it be in my super aged 45. I have half the amount in Super but would have to set up a SMSF.

Thoughts for and against please.

Peter

 

[Player]

OK, opinons please:

I am thinking of getting one or two SEQLD town houses. Very new and cashflow positive. I can fix 80% for 5years at 5.69%. Strategy is long term hold.

Where in S/E Qld? Address and google earth coordinates please Only kidding.

If it's Brisbane, sounds great. If it's Gold Coast, caveat emptor. Things still sick here. If it's washing it's own face and slightly positive, then speculate on the gain. Perhaps similar applies to Sunshine Coast, although I am not intimately familiar with that market.

Thought for and against please.

Should it be in my super aged 45. I have half the amount in Super but would have to set up a SMSF.

That would take time. Getting the deed and corporate trustee takes no time compared to getting the roll-over from your current insto. Then you'd need to set up the bare/custodian trust to do the SMSF lend. Will these townies be available still?

Thoughts for and against please.

Peter

IMHO Brisbane and Perth are likely to be the shiners in the shorter and medium term out of the major capitols.

 

[Peter 14.7]

IMHO Brisbane and Perth are likely to be the shiners in the shorter and medium term out of the major capitols.

Thanks Player.... kudos coming for detailed and rational response.

Peter

 

[MTR]

OK, opinons please:

I am thinking of getting one or two SEQLD town houses. Very new and cashflow positive. I can fix 80% for 5years at 5.69%. Strategy is long term hold.

Thought for and against please.

Should it be in my super aged 45. I have half the amount in Super but would have to set up a SMSF.

Thoughts for and against please.

Peter

Hi Peter
would be interested in the yields you can achieve in SEQLD and are these OTP townhouses.

Cheers MTR

 

[HiEquity]

Peter

One of the biggest issues for the SMSF structure for me is the inability to refinance and extract equity in the event of growth to help grow the overall portfolio, without selling the asset. Easy to say I'm not interested in further growth of the portfolio until I see a big bunch of lazy equity sitting there out of reach.... churning properties has no appeal to me because of the transaction fees involved - even if CGT is a lot smaller in this structure (now at least...) you still have agent's fees and stamp duty to worry about.

The other issue is how frequently the rules change around super... just goes to show the temptation for govts to tinker with it is all too hard to resist. Doesn't bode well for the future!

 

[Peter 14.7]

Peter

One of the biggest issues for the SMSF structure for me is the inability to refinance and extract equity in the event of growth to help grow the overall portfolio, without selling the asset. Easy to say I'm not interested in further growth of the portfolio until I see a big bunch of lazy equity sitting there out of reach.... churning properties has no appeal to me because of the transaction fees involved - even if CGT is a lot smaller in this structure (now at least...) you still have agent's fees and stamp duty to worry about.

The other issue is how frequently the rules change around super... just goes to show the temptation for govts to tinker with it is all too hard to resist. Doesn't bode well for the future!

Agree.

Each time I think hummmm, SMSF should I? my very good Accountant says, I will tell ya when they stop changing the rules... still waiting.

AND

I need to understand the limitations. No good earning 8% per annum when 45 is growth you cannot tap or extract without a sale.

AND

Like trusts I don't like be in a "seen to wealthy" minority as the Gov of the day can easily attack with the "fat cat" claims. Look at France's new 75% super income tax for those earning above $1M EU! At least of individual they have to attack a lot of us.

AND

Being heavily into property my approach was make the Super Fund all shares, although it has been cash since 2008. Counter investment to property. This approach is all property.

All good thoughts, thanks Peter

 

[Peter 14.7]

Hi Peter
would be interested in the yields you can achieve in SEQLD and are these OTP townhouses.

Cheers MTR

All positive geared and enough to cover the odd hiccup or two.

OTP is off the plan? if so, no.

Peter