I have been off and on this forum for few years now, but never heard so many people talking down property investing, as if the sky is going to fall off, price will drop 40%, as predicted by our infamous prof Keen (what a clown). This is just the normal cycle we are going through. Is it big deal and not desirable the house price go sideways for a few years so people can afford a roof over their head ?
Why all the D&G on this forum now ?!
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It's like anything - read through and have a think. If you want, write a constructive response. Or ignore it.
I'm not at all a fan of telling people not to post stuff. I learn more from being forced to think my ideas through, and having holes picked in them, than I ever have from simply reading something.
I'm not at all a fan of telling people not to post stuff. I learn more from being forced to think my ideas through, and having holes picked in them, than I ever have from simply reading something.
we seem to have a large number of newbies on the forum who have not seen a full cycle before, so don't understand that booms don't last forever - and neither do busts.
perhaps we need a new posting of the "timing" clock to show the newbies that everything (cash, shares, property, wages, interest rates etc) cycles up and down all the time.
as for me - i'm happy tra lalalala. moderately bored as everything is in motion, but i'm not required at this stage to be involved - and the christmas shopping is finished - but still happy.
i should be off researching front loading w/machs, heat compressed recycled plastic sheeting and watching grand designs stylist dvd leant to me by a friend - but i'm too busy eating christmas chocolate, drinking cola and writing on ss!
perhaps we need a new posting of the "timing" clock to show the newbies that everything (cash, shares, property, wages, interest rates etc) cycles up and down all the time.
as for me - i'm happy tra lalalala. moderately bored as everything is in motion, but i'm not required at this stage to be involved - and the christmas shopping is finished - but still happy.
i should be off researching front loading w/machs, heat compressed recycled plastic sheeting and watching grand designs stylist dvd leant to me by a friend - but i'm too busy eating christmas chocolate, drinking cola and writing on ss!
i don't think there's much D&G at all.
I think there's some very thought provoking posts about the chain reaction certain events wil have, both for the good and bad side of the argument.
I haven't heard anyone say "prices will fall 40%" in over 6 months.
just because wmost folks are a little more cautious and not blind bulls, doesn't mean there's a D&G vein.
it's currently quite difficult to generate growth at present when painting your investment picture with a wide brush. there are a great many niches out there to turn a tidy profit, but you gotta look harder and learn more to understand them and secure them, you gotta be smarter with your money coz there's not as much floating around.
it's time to be realistic. smart buying now will get you a lot of growth in the future. poor buying now will see you wear losses for a long time.
I think there's some very thought provoking posts about the chain reaction certain events wil have, both for the good and bad side of the argument.
I haven't heard anyone say "prices will fall 40%" in over 6 months.
just because wmost folks are a little more cautious and not blind bulls, doesn't mean there's a D&G vein.
it's currently quite difficult to generate growth at present when painting your investment picture with a wide brush. there are a great many niches out there to turn a tidy profit, but you gotta look harder and learn more to understand them and secure them, you gotta be smarter with your money coz there's not as much floating around.
it's time to be realistic. smart buying now will get you a lot of growth in the future. poor buying now will see you wear losses for a long time.
The forum is frequented by a number of active property investors who like to push the limits. Some of them could well have had new lending discussions with their financiers recently. That can be enough to bring on a bit of D&G type thinking...
Deals can still be done but it's all a lot harder than it used to be. Which is not necessarily a bad thing of course and means money can still be made.
But not just by buying any old thing...
Deals can still be done but it's all a lot harder than it used to be. Which is not necessarily a bad thing of course and means money can still be made.
But not just by buying any old thing...
Prices did fall 40% in a few places, and are still falling.
Some clowns didnt think it would ever happen, again.
Other clowns still dont think it did.
Other clowns will say property always goes up and brag how they saved xxx.
With so many clowns, no wonder its a funny world
Some clowns didnt think it would ever happen, again.
Other clowns still dont think it did.
Other clowns will say property always goes up and brag how they saved xxx.
With so many clowns, no wonder its a funny world
Some of us happen to believe that this is not a normal cycle we are going through. When house prices cooled in Sydney 2003, you never had the problems around the world that currently exist. Europe's scrambling at each turn to stop PIIGS turning into a domino, the US is still struggling, and China will slow.
There is a difference between continually overly optimistic about property, and being realistic about external world factors that will impact the market.
Personally, I believe the market will really cool in 2011/2012 (as I've stated before). Happy to sit comfortably on 29% LVR currently across 3 properties.
My gut feeling is that 2011/2012, like the Storm investors who were genius when things were good, but then crying foul when things turned, you see the same with a lot of over leveraged property investors
Actually, it is not unusual as this group seems to get all their facts from the Media which incidently is in the business of selling papers not the facts.
Being a longer term poster...I noticed that D&Gers enter when this happens. Last time this happened to such a large extent was during the phase just as we entered the GFC (2007).....
I suspect that they will be banging their drums for another 9 months or so till the next property cycle commences.
Just another day on SS!....nothing new really.
Even had the regular step of some of the dummy spitters leaving...I suspect some of them will return....after all SS is like a drug addiction!
Being a longer term poster...I noticed that D&Gers enter when this happens. Last time this happened to such a large extent was during the phase just as we entered the GFC (2007).....
I suspect that they will be banging their drums for another 9 months or so till the next property cycle commences.
Just another day on SS!....nothing new really.
Even had the regular step of some of the dummy spitters leaving...I suspect some of them will return....after all SS is like a drug addiction!
Hmm.......there really aren't that many at the moment. Just the same old ones, pushing the same old barrow, saying the same old thing.
No, you are right. I have seen much more at times. As I said it is a few that are like eveready batteries, they keep on keeping on.
There probably is, but after a while of hearing the same things, I just switch off, then don't bother to go back and read any updates on those threads. That's the problem of harping on continually, people just stop listening to you.
Correct again! There are many reasons why someone could be resting at present. As Aaron said, they may be cautious, but they may also just be waiting out in the expectation of a better buying oportunity at a later date. Money is also harder to come by ATM, so there may be some that are forced into the waiting game.
Actually, it is not unusual as this group seems to get all their facts from the Media which incidently is in the business of selling papers not the facts.
We shall see who is correct in 2011/2012.
Who listens to the media? No, you looks at where the money is, and what the markets are doing. The media is just filter rubbish.
Even simple stuff like long-term interest rates for countries. The trend is self full-filling. Portugal will be the next domino to fall. The GFC full effects were only delayed due to all the world stimulus spending.
Long-term interest rate statistics for EU Member States
http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/long/html/index.en.html
I'm sure you will be wide awake next year Lizzie ;-)).
The debate is factual. If you think that the growing problems around the world won't have an impact on the Australia economy (non-stimulus supported), then that's fine.
But it seems that having a realistic opinion of the property market in 2011/2012 on this forum, in tantamount to being a "denier" in the climate debate.
Anyway, us newbies will be more realistic, while you 6000+ post experts, buy property when you could have thrown a dart at a board and made money on property the past 10-15yrs, continue the thinking that Australia is immune.
We sit on 29% LVR currently because there will be lots of good opportunities for more once the buying past 2011/2012.
Oh please!!! We have struggled each and every house or IP we have bought. It was never as easy as throwing a dart at a board and making money.
This type of rubbish is why you are put on the ignore button.
GOYA and give it a go. Buy something that is no more than what you are paying in rent..... or not. But either give it a go, or stop whining that it is impossible.
It IS possible.
In case you missed it wylie, I did say "Happy to sit comfortably on 29% LVR currently across 3 properties.". Sitting on enough equity and cash to by 3 more properties tomorrow, but looking at the market realistically for 2011/2012, and believe now is the time to sit comfortable, and watch the pain hit.
And yes, you could have thrown a dart at a board. Give me one suburb/town in Australia that has not at least doubled in the last 10yrs. Take's fine. But it does not take an "expert" to have made money.
And yes, holding 3 properties (moved from PPOR recently), and renting (on Sydney Harbour), Blues Point - with a perfect view of the bridge and city ;-), giving that investor maybe 2% rental yield , haha.
With any investing its a game of probabilities as no one has a working crystal ball. Not saying 'this will happen and that will be result of that' but 'its more likely this scenario will unfold' and placing your bets accordingly.
For my money i think the odds are short there will be a couple more rate rises on the back of increasing inflation from the ongoing commodities boom. Thanks China and India.
And there will be a falling of property prices. Especially at the lower end.
If rates dont rise, things will be flat for a while, maybe sight falls but i think the chances are they will and there will be a slow, orderly fall in prices for a couple of years.
Ive seen quite a few cycles since i bought my first property in 1988 and this one is different.
For my money i think the odds are short there will be a couple more rate rises on the back of increasing inflation from the ongoing commodities boom. Thanks China and India.
And there will be a falling of property prices. Especially at the lower end.
If rates dont rise, things will be flat for a while, maybe sight falls but i think the chances are they will and there will be a slow, orderly fall in prices for a couple of years.
Ive seen quite a few cycles since i bought my first property in 1988 and this one is different.
Have you given a thought that the person who OWNS the place you are renting is probably worth a LOT and may not give a toss about the rental yield?
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The level of pain depends on the price originally paid. If I bought a property 4 years ago that is now worth 50% more that what I paid, and generates enough rent to be cashflow positive, and it drops 10% in value... do I care?
They may be worth a lot, but really what better way to live giving landlord 2-3% yield, going down to the harbour on a Sat for a sail, and investing your money on something that yield a lot more.
As for the pain, that is the pain from those that bought at the peak (5mths ago), or those that are currently heavily leveraged (not the people who have some reasonable equity to absorb.
Anyway, we'll see in 2011/2012 whether it's one for the newbie poster, or the 6000+ post "experts".
