We have another of a trickle of american experts predicting an Australian down turn in the Property market . In the past they've never been right and my gut feeling is they're wrong again .
I have a thought as to why this is the case and why the Americans get Australia wrong .
My hobby is song writing , specifically , country music so I've spent a fair amount of time trying to work out what makes americans tick , so I can write my songs in a way that sounds genuine to an american ear . I have numerous american friends and often ask them about how they handle different situations and what their coutry is thinking .
Bottom line is we are different , we react in different ways , we're more cynical , laid back , they can be more up front and take things literally . You have to spell it out and make it obvious to americans otherwise they won't get it . Obviously this is a broad generalisation and there are many other there who shake their heads at some of their fellow country men .
So why is this relevant ?
If you have a certain economic trigger , I believe we have a different interpretation and hence reaction .
It's the make up of our psychology as a nation which make us react in a different fashion. As an example if an american gets into financial trouble , they are more likely to walk away and start again , we're more likely to hang on and find a way to work things out . They are a nation of risk takers ( part of the reason why they have been successful ) whereas we are generally more conservative.
So applying statistical models to how we as a nation will react in situations ( which is what I assume these guys are doing ) IMHO is flawed and that's why they get it wrong .
Cliff
I have a thought as to why this is the case and why the Americans get Australia wrong .
My hobby is song writing , specifically , country music so I've spent a fair amount of time trying to work out what makes americans tick , so I can write my songs in a way that sounds genuine to an american ear . I have numerous american friends and often ask them about how they handle different situations and what their coutry is thinking .
Bottom line is we are different , we react in different ways , we're more cynical , laid back , they can be more up front and take things literally . You have to spell it out and make it obvious to americans otherwise they won't get it . Obviously this is a broad generalisation and there are many other there who shake their heads at some of their fellow country men .
So why is this relevant ?
If you have a certain economic trigger , I believe we have a different interpretation and hence reaction .
It's the make up of our psychology as a nation which make us react in a different fashion. As an example if an american gets into financial trouble , they are more likely to walk away and start again , we're more likely to hang on and find a way to work things out . They are a nation of risk takers ( part of the reason why they have been successful ) whereas we are generally more conservative.
So applying statistical models to how we as a nation will react in situations ( which is what I assume these guys are doing ) IMHO is flawed and that's why they get it wrong .
Cliff
