Read Ross Gittins.
But do you actually know many economists?
As you should know Mark, I am an economist by background. It was a comment directed at oneself. Sorry you didn't get the joke.
Why?
- Thread starter BayView
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Read Ross Gittins.
But do you actually know many economists?
As you should know Mark, I am an economist by background. It was a comment directed at oneself. Sorry you didn't get the joke.
Bayview. Not sure about the golf stuff but I think with vehicles some of the younger generations have been convinced to take them to the dealers only! With general food retail the big two have replaced butchers, fruit shops, bakers, bottlos, even chemists.
I don't know about everyone else but I shop online a lot (and the wife), particularly for my business.
As has already been said people changed with the GFC, but I think Australia is in the funny situation where the **** didn't really hit the fan here during the GFC so we're all hanging back waiting to see if it ever will even 6+ years later. With that last unemployment figure you never know.....
I don't know about everyone else but I shop online a lot (and the wife), particularly for my business.
As has already been said people changed with the GFC, but I think Australia is in the funny situation where the **** didn't really hit the fan here during the GFC so we're all hanging back waiting to see if it ever will even 6+ years later. With that last unemployment figure you never know.....
I know a bunch of economists, but not personally. Well, I know you, but it's not the same cause we've never hung out.
Also, no need to apologise, you haven't done anything wrong.
Also, no need to apologise, you haven't done anything wrong.
Economists are theoretical mathemagicians. They combine a lot of economic theory with mathematical modeling and a few wild guesses. If they're lucky the outcome is something like reality if not, they're called Steve Keen.
@Bayview
I'm not buying the whole 'the economy is just peachy' business, but I'm not sure that tyres and golf are the best measures.
Though you'd know infinitely more about golf than I do, I get the impression that maybe golf is waning in popularity? turk may have a point about golf losing some of its demographic to cycling - they seem to appeal to the same set and cycling is massively popular at the moment.
I'm not buying the whole 'the economy is just peachy' business, but I'm not sure that tyres and golf are the best measures.
Though you'd know infinitely more about golf than I do, I get the impression that maybe golf is waning in popularity? turk may have a point about golf losing some of its demographic to cycling - they seem to appeal to the same set and cycling is massively popular at the moment.
In my business we get to see a good cross section of current purchasing across industries from retail, consumer discretionary, materials handling, furniture and homeware and the like. I can say across the client base, there has been no significant growth for a few years. Our business is growing strongly but that is due to increased market share, not the growth of existing clients.
I can also say that offshoring of admin and customer service roles is now rampant in mid market and SME - whereas 5 years ago, none of our SME clients was offshoring I'd say about 20% now are. I think we are starting to see the results of that.
I can also say that offshoring of admin and customer service roles is now rampant in mid market and SME - whereas 5 years ago, none of our SME clients was offshoring I'd say about 20% now are. I think we are starting to see the results of that.
Hi Fifth, I don't know about you, but I *really* hope people don't have 'tyres' written on their 'Things We Can Deal With At The Absolute Last Minute In This Economy' list.
am sure they are... who ever buys tyres unless you really have to?
I had a disagreement with Sanj on another thread about how the Economy is travelling, and he denied there was a problem because the Stats said so.
I asked him a direct question and/or give his opinion about "Why?"
Why are folks not spending money on stuff such as golf Memberships, green fees and equipment?, on tyres, repairs and car services? (we often get folks who have not had their car serviced in over 100,00km's - no BS either)...along with no doubt several other examples folks could list from their industry...
He danced around the question and refused to answer it like a true Politician....referred me back to the Stats....
So, I put it out to everyone in this fishbowl;
Why are people spending less money such things?
Despite supposedly having more earnings than a few years ago?
Why does the ATO now have a self-help line so that folks can set up their own payment plan for overdue taxes owed, etc? (I'm on one!)
Surely it has become so common that it had to be done...
WHY?
Opinions welcome
The 'stats' are so broad.
Your 'area' is more subjective to the economic conditions.
ATO: do you realise that the ATO is a 'preferred creditor'. Not even a company formation can provide the protection as in times past for a company set up. As a director, one might be still personally liable for taxes owed, including for many GST'.
My accountant told me, no matter what, pay the GST first regardless of the financial situation of the company, otherwise tax department comes after the directors first.
And regardless of what the Somersoft says (because of its property focus), or the media says (because its generally pretty stupid at the best of times).
There are many people doing it really tough out there.
This is not a tounge in cheek post.
Middle class is doing it tough (though less so than other parts of the world).
REMEMBER this is the 21st century, not the 20th century.
The factors of the 20th century and 21st century WILL NOT BE THE SAME.
But most of the population hasn't figured this out yet.
There are many people doing it really tough out there.
This is not a tounge in cheek post.
Middle class is doing it tough (though less so than other parts of the world).
REMEMBER this is the 21st century, not the 20th century.
The factors of the 20th century and 21st century WILL NOT BE THE SAME.
But most of the population hasn't figured this out yet.
I don't drive a car so tyres are certainly at the bottom of my list.
I do know there are a range of issues which can impact tyre sales at a particular location which have been discussed rather exhaustively in Bayview's business thread (e.g. the popularity of chain and franchises in premium locations [e.g. Kmart Tyre & Auto], customers using dealerships, online sales, etc.) which is what I was alluding to. Small business businesses struggling to compete with larger or more cost effective ones, not exactly a revelation.
And, yes, maybe people buying fewer tyres. But are they making their tyres do until the last moment because they don't have the money? Because they have the money but are becoming more cheapskate-y and are saving more? Because they are lazy?
My point was, looking at one or two isolated consumer purchases isn't necessarily going to reflect the economic reality.
That said, I do tend to agree with Bayview that the economy isn't going along so nicely as Fairfax/News Corp keep reassuring us.
But that's what I've been telling you Sanj; my circle is pretty wide and varied and the news is consistent across it.
That tyre supplier I mentioned (who had their worst half Fin year on record) - only one of many suppliers in the industry I deal with - is a Victoria wide wholesaler of a few brands.
I don't only look at my own little hole, Sanj. I'm not that naive.
I did have a life in the Big Smoke before the Mornington Peninsula.
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You'd better believe it.
The amount of folks (locals and visitors) that come in here to get tyres after they were pinged by a random Police and Sheriff car check down here would astound you.
And; the only reason they have done it was because they got caught and were put off the road!
And; the tyres are often alarmingly bald and worse.
Now; that's what I call "absolute last minute"!
Hence; this thread.
The demographic of my area - and Rosebud nearby is becoming ever-increasingly Mr.Average;
Working class and middle-class families are taking over the holiday homes and commuting, and the traditional holiday home and retiree seachange demographic are slowly decreasing.
The Primary and Secondary Schools are filling up.
Many of the old beach shacks are being sold, demolished and multiple town-houses built in their place. Some of these are still holiday homes of course, but many are permanent dwellings now.
My son is now in Year 7, and he is very socially active - lots of kids coming to our place for playdates/sleep overs etc on weekends, and he to their places.
We often have to pick up kids from their houses, or drop our boy to theirs etc and see where the folks are living. A good number of them are in these townhouses I've found - along with many of our customers.
So, I would suggest that our demographic is becoming a good indication of the wider population....the 90%.
Don't forget; the wider population is middle-class and down from there; not the "Collins st" end which is largely unaffected by anything economic - unless the Company lays them off.
I think there is a definite change in spending habits that stops elective spending from flowing through the local communities.
Firstly, I believe that $40-$60 a month on a mobile plan seems fairly common in the spending generation (18-30 years) This money goes straight to the big end of town, Telstra, Optus etc
The other, which the cops know about, is the illicit drug trade. This is Much larger than the general populace believe, in the Hunter area they drug tested 359 drivers, 57 had drugs in their system
<<By Friday afternoon, as the operation was wrapping up, one-in-five drivers who were tested had returned a positive roadside swab and secondary test. Those who tested positive were banned from driving for 24 hours and had their sample sent away for further analysis in Sydney.>>
http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2464390/most-hunter-drug-drivers-on-meth/
The cash from the drug trade is often hoarded because it is black, so it can't be spent in the normal way like money spent in a pub. Money in a pub pays bar staff, the suppliers of booze, cleaning products, security, taxes etc etc and hence it recycles through the community.
When they bust these drug suppliers they often find millions in cash hoarded, if that had been spent on legitimate products it would have flowed back through the community not be sitting in someones ceiling.
If we consider the amount of cash that used to be spent locally that is now removed from the community we are talking millions a week not being spent throughout Australia.
Less flow on effect to suppliers, manufacturers, importers means less jobs, less GST and so it slows the place down
Firstly, I believe that $40-$60 a month on a mobile plan seems fairly common in the spending generation (18-30 years) This money goes straight to the big end of town, Telstra, Optus etc
The other, which the cops know about, is the illicit drug trade. This is Much larger than the general populace believe, in the Hunter area they drug tested 359 drivers, 57 had drugs in their system
<<By Friday afternoon, as the operation was wrapping up, one-in-five drivers who were tested had returned a positive roadside swab and secondary test. Those who tested positive were banned from driving for 24 hours and had their sample sent away for further analysis in Sydney.>>
http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2464390/most-hunter-drug-drivers-on-meth/
The cash from the drug trade is often hoarded because it is black, so it can't be spent in the normal way like money spent in a pub. Money in a pub pays bar staff, the suppliers of booze, cleaning products, security, taxes etc etc and hence it recycles through the community.
When they bust these drug suppliers they often find millions in cash hoarded, if that had been spent on legitimate products it would have flowed back through the community not be sitting in someones ceiling.
If we consider the amount of cash that used to be spent locally that is now removed from the community we are talking millions a week not being spent throughout Australia.
Less flow on effect to suppliers, manufacturers, importers means less jobs, less GST and so it slows the place down
Hmm its interesting to hear peoples thoughts. I think the OP is talking about cyclical issues in the economy.
While macro level statistics may paint one picture, when you look down with a microscope at individual markets you'll often find many moving parts driven by more localised factors.
On a macro level, I dont think many people are claiming its all peachy, unemployment was always expected to rise this year and the experts have been claiming for a good year now that 2014/15 was expected to be below trend. The economy is experiencing a slower period so that may be feeding through to your localised economies.
Structurally and more longer term - the economic drivers at play suggest that Australia will experience slower than trend income growth over the next decade. There are key underlying macro drivers to income growth - most of them will work against us over the next decade. It simply means productivity growth (or capital) will need to increase to pick up the slack from lower labor utilisation (ageing population, low net migration, etc) and of more volatile components that wont have a good decade (terms of trade).
In my view - all it means is income growth over the next decade will be lower than the previous decade - that is a lower trend level of income growth (and lower living standard growth, etc). Not necessarily a bad thing - we have a very healthy living standard in Australia.
As for golf memberships, has anyone ever looked the correlation between Tiger and golf memberships/love? Its ridiculous, one just has to look at the volatility in the US Masters ticket prices to notice he has an impact on golf demand all over the world. Incredible. Anectodally, when Tiger made a return in early 2013, my local golf club was doing pretty well. This year, Tiger has basically been injured the entire time.
While macro level statistics may paint one picture, when you look down with a microscope at individual markets you'll often find many moving parts driven by more localised factors.
On a macro level, I dont think many people are claiming its all peachy, unemployment was always expected to rise this year and the experts have been claiming for a good year now that 2014/15 was expected to be below trend. The economy is experiencing a slower period so that may be feeding through to your localised economies.
Structurally and more longer term - the economic drivers at play suggest that Australia will experience slower than trend income growth over the next decade. There are key underlying macro drivers to income growth - most of them will work against us over the next decade. It simply means productivity growth (or capital) will need to increase to pick up the slack from lower labor utilisation (ageing population, low net migration, etc) and of more volatile components that wont have a good decade (terms of trade).
In my view - all it means is income growth over the next decade will be lower than the previous decade - that is a lower trend level of income growth (and lower living standard growth, etc). Not necessarily a bad thing - we have a very healthy living standard in Australia.
As for golf memberships, has anyone ever looked the correlation between Tiger and golf memberships/love? Its ridiculous, one just has to look at the volatility in the US Masters ticket prices to notice he has an impact on golf demand all over the world. Incredible. Anectodally, when Tiger made a return in early 2013, my local golf club was doing pretty well. This year, Tiger has basically been injured the entire time.
A lot of people in Aus are doing it hard, remember one thing a few people doing good on this forum dont count for the rest. Some here just like to brag or talk it up because its the net.
The rates are low and people are doing it hard now just imagine when the rates go up, not everyone signs up somersoft and bullsh.ts they have 50mil in property and pulling in more money in development than harry triguboff.
The rates are low and people are doing it hard now just imagine when the rates go up, not everyone signs up somersoft and bullsh.ts they have 50mil in property and pulling in more money in development than harry triguboff.
So where do you invest then Bayview?
