Why?

[BayView]

So where do you invest then Bayview?

Currently; nowhere...

We had 5 IP's plus a PPoR until we went to the USA in '05, and we sold one IP not long before departing due to concerns about lack of cashflow while we were away - we weren't sure how it would pan out over there and wanted some SANF.

Since coming back in '08, I worked in golf again for a couple of years, then bought the workshop and my wife has had two more children (a fair whack of maternity leave). The workshop was bought using equity in the PPoR. First year or so was decent, then oops.

The workshop has not turned out so well (so far) as most would know, and we had to borrow a bit to finish off the new PPoR build which we weren't expecting...luckily we decided to cut back on a few of the extravagances we had planned for it before the build .

The result was a necessity to have to sell off all but one IP, and I'm even humming and hah-ing about that one (it's Pos geared, but nothing exciting).

Still not out of the woods by any stretch, so the investing is on the backburner for god knows how long.

 

[Richard Feynman]

Last I saw, there was a huge increase in eating out (while other areas of of discretionary spending had declined) and a big lift in retail turnover. Might account for plenty.

Let me dig.

 

[Richard Feynman]

Righto..

Sorry for the size of these:

 

[Deltaberry]

If you're not confident about the market here, there're probably some better propositions offshore.

 

[Fifth]

You have to wonder at the priorities of a society that cuts back on everything else to make way for more eating out. Is it that we're too precious to cook for ourselves or because we think the lifestyle so grand?

 

[BayView]

If you're not confident about the market here, there're probably some better propositions offshore.

I'm always confident about the housing market here - if that's what you are referring to. Sometimes it's flat, but in my lifetime has only ever gone up and the population is not going backwards, so it will continue to go up.

I cannot invest in it right now (certainly not without taking on some considerable risk), so will have to sit on what I have and wait for some more CG.

This thread is about the why of folks seemingly doing it tough across the wider community - from my experiences - despite the growth in real wages apparently.

 

[Melbournian]

But that's what I've been telling you Sanj; my circle is pretty wide and varied and the news is consistent across it.

That tyre supplier I mentioned (who had their worst half Fin year on record) - only one of many suppliers in the industry I deal with - is a Victoria wide wholesaler of a few brands.

I don't only look at my own little hole, Sanj. I'm not that naive.

I did have a life in the Big Smoke before the Mornington Peninsula.

yeah - but car industry is the worst area to be into atm. Look at the toyotas and ford. of course it is consistent - the car industry has very little margins to work with. I won't be suprised in couple of years time the new wave of china cars like the "great wall" takes out other car manufacturers.

you would be better off selling iphone or ipad accessories or technological items and would still be ahead.

 

[Deltaberry]

I'm always confident about the housing market here - if that's what you are referring to. Sometimes it's flat, but in my lifetime has only ever gone up and the population is not going backwards, so it will continue to go up.

I cannot invest in it right now (certainly not without taking on some considerable risk), so will have to sit on what I have and wait for some more CG.

This thread is about the why of folks seemingly doing it tough across the wider community - from my experiences - despite the growth in real wages apparently.

Ok yes I was referring to housing market.

Re why folks are doing it tough, you're basing this on your observation that people are spending less at golf and tyres. As I said, I note savings rates has gone up substantially. People have become cautious after the GFC.

 

[BayView]

Ok yes I was referring to housing market.

Re why folks are doing it tough, you're basing this on your observation that people are spending less at golf and tyres.

For some reason everyone here has this perception that just because my personal situation with my Business is not so flash, that I base all my statements regarding the state of the economy on that. I do not.

One of the very common things I get asked by both customers and friends who are in businesses themselves is; "How's business?".

Depending on how well I know that person, I say things such as "Oh; it's a bit up and down", or "Just plodding along" if I don't know them...to "Pretty quiet at the moment" if I know them well.

This invokes responses from them, and they open up to me with their take on the world and how they are travelling.

Some are flying along; most - are not.

So; there's the feedback.

I've already said that I wasn't basing my observation on just those two examples of golf and cars - even though they are a solid indicator of a wide cross section of our community.

Why? because the vast majority of folks own a car, and a huge number of folks play golf in Australia.

The golf figures for eg are Australia wide. Trend is down. If everyone is so flush with extra real wages, you would think a few more might start to dust off the Callaways again.

And; I did mention that the two examples I used were "not just my backyard" examples - they are from talking to people who represent a very large section of each of those two examples across Victoria.

As for other examples; my customers are from a very wide range of jobs and lifestyles and locations.

Many of them commute to Melb and other areas for work. Many are tradies, shift workers, nurses, teachers, professional people who commute to town, housewives of these guys, and so on and so on.

As I said, I note savings rates has gone up substantially. People have become cautious after the GFC.

Thankyou for that.

I have noticed a larger number of folks paying by Savings and Cheque eftpos these days as opposed to Credit Card...would suggest that folks are trying to reduce debt. Cash is almost non-existent now.

Or; maybe maxed-out on the CC?

 

[BayView]

You have to wonder at the priorities of a society that cuts back on everything else to make way for more eating out. Is it that we're too precious to cook for ourselves or because we think the lifestyle so grand?

I remember some years ago a comment somewhere about how folks still found the resources to go to the Movies during the Great Depression; even though there was no money or jobs...

 

[The Fence]

If everyone is so flush with extra real wages, you would think a few more might start to dust off the Callaways again.

Many buying new cars and they dont need servicing at a tyre place. Instead more and more fixed servicing pricing at the dealers.

I hate buying new tyres, it's the thing I try and avoid the most, but when they are due for renewal then obviously we do, but stretch it out as much as possible.
Maybe just one of those "things".

Must admit I do like the fixed price servicing on new cars as well. No more large mechanic bills.

I also see headlines suggesting all is well and IR's should go up, but dont believe it will happen. And so far it hasnt.

Rolf seems to have a good barometer on general sentiment.

 

[BayView]

Many buying new cars and they dont need servicing at a tyre place. Instead more and more fixed servicing pricing at the dealers.

It's not just the tyres that are down from what I hear from the reps who call in, and suppliers we call to order stuff from - it's everything.

We have seen in recent times cars that have not been serviced in over 100,00km's - that is not a typ-o.

Overdues of 50,00km's etc are not uncommon.

But as I said; one example of the community spending.

I hate buying new tyres, it's the thing I try and avoid the most, but when they are due for renewal then obviously we do, but stretch it out as much as possible.
Maybe just one of those "things".

Must admit I do like the fixed price servicing on new cars as well. No more large mechanic bills.

There is no free lunch.

I also see headlines suggesting all is well and IR's should go up, but dont believe it will happen. And so far it hasnt.

Which means?

Rolf seems to have a good barometer on general sentiment.

Who is Rolf?

 

[The Fence]

Come out from under your rock BV.

 

[jackbak]

According to The Age this morning there have been 109,900 jobs created in 2014, best start to a year since 2008.

 

[BayView]

Come out from under your rock BV.

What's the relevance with that comment?

Is it because I don't know who Rolf is?

There are a number of Rolfs here.

 

[Deltaberry]

I'm not sure why they're doing tough.

It's quite hit and miss but what I've noticed is people who are stuck in their old ways of doing business are being flushed out of the game.

Competition is increasing in every field. Many new concepts/ideas are thriving, at the expense of many old businesses/models that haven't changed in 10 years.

 

[Melbournian]

agree with DB. depends on concepts and ideas.

like there is malaysian restaurant franchise called papparich.

It had one or two stores in melbourne CBD originally, and now it has in doncaster, ringwood, northland, knox, (north, east, west) and opening in sydney, brisbane and even perth and even adelaide.

The place is packed when i went to the ringwood store.

 

[BayView]

According to The Age this morning there have been 109,900 jobs created in 2014, best start to a year since 2008.

Is this NETT or just the ones created?

On of our customers used to work as a foreman for one of the larger construction companies doing Gubbmint contracts such as the Desalination Plant in Wonthaggi, and various other major roadworks and infrastructure programs.

He ran out of work in that field around a year ago from memory, and hasn't been in that line of work since then.

According to him; 30,000 workers in that line lost work and are still out of that line of work. No doubt they are all in some other form of work somewhere.

He's currently driving a "Vin's Bins" truck for work.

Admittedly; it's mostly Gubbmint works he was involved in, and the purse strings are firmly tied I guess to reign in the Deficit, but still - it's a huge loss of jobs which I'd wager are not in those "job creation" figures.

We've had a "Sam's Warehouse" and a "Video Easy" close down here in Dromana this year - a further 70-ish jobs...

 

[Melbournian]

video ezy was bound to close. nowadays everyone rent movies or series online.

there is essentially no need for video stores anymore.

 

[jackbak]

We've had a "Sam's Warehouse" and a "Video Easy" close down here in Dromana this year - a further 70-ish jobs...

These two stores you mention are actually businesses that thrive in the bad times. Sam's Warehouse sells cheap stuff that people buy when they are doing it tough and people hire video's when the cant afford to go out. But as Melbournian pointed out, all video shops are shutting down due to downloading...