Why?
- Thread starter BayView
- Start date
Problem with businesses like Sam's Warehouse is, I've never heard of it, and if I want warehouse equipment, I'd drive to Bunnings. And Bunnings is thriving. Just check out the Wesfarmers annual results to see. Soon Bunnings might struggle if someone comes up with the right online model. Video - another dated business model. The last time I used a DVD or VHS was a long time ago.
PapaRich is a good example (know the owners). Smart innovative guys. It's not just about opening a restaurant and hoping people come in. But I won't get into details.
Bridge Rd is another good example. People say it's dead. I tend to think there's a future for it, you just need to pick the trend that will emerge there and know what to do/invest in/how to set it up/where to draw the right people. Most agents and landlords in that area are all over 50 and probably wouldn't even know what modern concepts such as co-working space or crowd funding are. They're still trying to rip Wayne Cooper or Portmans off with their overpriced rent, two dated business models at least for that area.
In summary competition leads to overall improvement in society. Those who can't keep up just have to make way. Everyone has their moment of glory. Some like Jobs and Gates always seem to have it. Others like Gerry Harvey just don't get it. Why would I buy anything from good ol' Harvey when a certain website sells the same product at 90% of the cost, do home delivery free of charge the next day, remove my old appliances, plug it in for me, throw out my rubbish, and accept payment on delivery rather than in advance?!?!
PapaRich is a good example (know the owners). Smart innovative guys. It's not just about opening a restaurant and hoping people come in. But I won't get into details.
Bridge Rd is another good example. People say it's dead. I tend to think there's a future for it, you just need to pick the trend that will emerge there and know what to do/invest in/how to set it up/where to draw the right people. Most agents and landlords in that area are all over 50 and probably wouldn't even know what modern concepts such as co-working space or crowd funding are. They're still trying to rip Wayne Cooper or Portmans off with their overpriced rent, two dated business models at least for that area.
In summary competition leads to overall improvement in society. Those who can't keep up just have to make way. Everyone has their moment of glory. Some like Jobs and Gates always seem to have it. Others like Gerry Harvey just don't get it. Why would I buy anything from good ol' Harvey when a certain website sells the same product at 90% of the cost, do home delivery free of charge the next day, remove my old appliances, plug it in for me, throw out my rubbish, and accept payment on delivery rather than in advance?!?!
That's because no one hires DVD's anymore. I had a friend ask me about six months ago if I knew where a DVD hire place was in St Kilda and my initial reaction to the question was 'You still rent DVD's? What is this, the 90's?'
There's a place here that is still going, but it's about 1/3rd the size it was when they first opened about 12 years ago.
Yep! Yep!
Outsourcing middle class jobs is another one. Most people, including on here, don't think it's an issue. In ten years time, they (or their kids) are going to be wondering 'What happened to all the jobs?'
Yes, dvd's are dead...it's been coming for a while I reckon.
Our Sam's closed...
Irrespective of why they closed; The point is; jobs gone - those folks may have new jobs; may not.
More folks in hard times - albeit maybe for a short while.
But the statement was that the stat is that over 100,000 jobs created, and the other statement was the stat that real wages have risen, so therefore all is well.
Our Sam's closed...
Irrespective of why they closed; The point is; jobs gone - those folks may have new jobs; may not.
More folks in hard times - albeit maybe for a short while.
But the statement was that the stat is that over 100,000 jobs created, and the other statement was the stat that real wages have risen, so therefore all is well.
Marc, it's not about quoting stats, it's about looking at the numbers behind the stats.
For instance, how many of those jobs are part time or casual? That increase in real wages, over how long a time period was it measured?
For instance, how many of those jobs are part time or casual? That increase in real wages, over how long a time period was it measured?
I agree. Even large supermarket chains advertise overseas for employees.
Everything will be fine until their credit cards are maxed out.
Most people are living on credit.
Then they will declare bankruptcy..spend a few months on a payment schedule..and repeat.
Some days I wish it would all collapse...and I'm serious.
Bring on the next great depression..we need one.
Most people are living on credit.
Then they will declare bankruptcy..spend a few months on a payment schedule..and repeat.
Some days I wish it would all collapse...and I'm serious.
Bring on the next great depression..we need one.
Correct.
Loads of jobs have been created no doubt, but I'll wager the percentage of those which are solid, long term full-time employment will be very small.
I'm happy to be proved wrong.
Hands up all those out there in the fishbowl who are experiencing full-time permanent job creations and extra staff hiring in their industry.
Or; conversely; hands up all those who have only seen a backwards movement in this regard - less staff and or a restructure of status and hours (less). Maybe needs a new thread with a survey poll attached.
I have no doubt that real wages have increased as the stat says; hence my question of Why? when I hear and see what I see
As I have said - stats encompass the entire workforce, but a small percent of the workforce have experienced a massive increase in their wages while the rest haven't. This drags the numbers UP, and can misrepresent the true picture.
This is my argument all the time...folks come on here and throw stats around, but there is always the picture behind the scenes that belies the stats.
If those who do so are an armchair expert and can only dredge up info from a computer screen as the gospel, and have no contact with the Mr.Thongs out on the street, then it's never gunna convince me.
I get annoyed when I tell folks of the picture I see and hear, and then get told "Come on, man; the Stats say this, so you are wrong".
Or is that; "bzzzt, incorrect"
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Okay, the 'thongs on the street' perspective in my little part of the world:
Spending on golf is down, but all those blokes who used to play golf are now tooling around on Saturday and Sunday mornings on pushies costing $5-10,000.
The local car service places are chockers - I had to wait a week to book my car in (could have driven to Dromana and back).
Cafes are going nuts.
The value of people's homes (in my area) are going nuts.
New apartment buildings are going up everywhere.
On the train in the morning just about every person, except me, is playing on a fancy phone or a tablet.
All the tradies I know are flat out.
The accountants we work with are flat out.
We (Depreciator) are flat out
That's the local view from my thongs.
Spending on golf is down, but all those blokes who used to play golf are now tooling around on Saturday and Sunday mornings on pushies costing $5-10,000.
The local car service places are chockers - I had to wait a week to book my car in (could have driven to Dromana and back).
Cafes are going nuts.
The value of people's homes (in my area) are going nuts.
New apartment buildings are going up everywhere.
On the train in the morning just about every person, except me, is playing on a fancy phone or a tablet.
All the tradies I know are flat out.
The accountants we work with are flat out.
We (Depreciator) are flat out
That's the local view from my thongs.
And then there's the "thong" on the foot in my area ...
- significantly higher than normal number of houses up for sale or lease (like over 100% more than the last 10 year average)
- many jobs lost, in big numbers at once, when a coal mine goes into caretaker mode - like 800 in one hit
- massive reduction in contracting jobs
- uncertainty about the future of other mines so workers go into "squirrelling" mode
- car yards empty
- cafes booming, but only on weekends from tourists
- reduction in supermarket jobs due to nearly every checkout being self serve
People are definitely belt-tightening around here. Me included. Although my car always gets it's service and tyres done on time ... just nowadays I shout myself to a coffee as a treat rather than a new dress - and half the time the coffee's bartered with mushrooms and passionfruit.
Those that have the ability to adapt are moving into small business or self employment ... those without the ability to change are really struggling.
- significantly higher than normal number of houses up for sale or lease (like over 100% more than the last 10 year average)
- many jobs lost, in big numbers at once, when a coal mine goes into caretaker mode - like 800 in one hit
- massive reduction in contracting jobs
- uncertainty about the future of other mines so workers go into "squirrelling" mode
- car yards empty
- cafes booming, but only on weekends from tourists
- reduction in supermarket jobs due to nearly every checkout being self serve
People are definitely belt-tightening around here. Me included. Although my car always gets it's service and tyres done on time ... just nowadays I shout myself to a coffee as a treat rather than a new dress - and half the time the coffee's bartered with mushrooms and passionfruit.
Those that have the ability to adapt are moving into small business or self employment ... those without the ability to change are really struggling.
Last week the ABS told us that part time jobs fell & full time increased by the same amount.
Do you have any reference for that assertion ?
The ABS FAQ on how the Wage Price Index has a different view on how the Wage Price Index is calculated.
The armchair experts send people out on the street every week to do it for them. Every week they talk to about 1000 people all around the country & ask them half a dozen questions about how they feel about money. The questions they ask and their responses for the last few months are here.
That most recent commentary on data collected last week tends to support neither view - things are sorta just ticking along.....
- I don't think people are saying that.
- My view is that an individual cannot possibly collect enough views to be statistically significant, OTOH 1000 interviews each week with responses averaged over a month or so is a far better representation of reality.
- 95% of the population are backward looking and base their views on what has happened - that is of far less importance to investors than what is going to happen.
- Asking better questions helps (eg the armchair experts ask Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?
- And ignoring that 95% and listening to the forward looking 5% also helps.
Anecdotal evidence has it's place, but give me the stats any day.
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Why wouldn't we outsource the jobs that other people can do cheaply?
Our kids should upskill themselves and provide something else other people can't - healthcare, agriculture, mining, tourism, education. If you can't, then maybe you're just being overpaid. I don't see Germany having a problem with this.
Why don't we have more scientists working on space programs or innovate biohealth products? Every now and then, I watch some amazing documentary about people pioneering all sorts of things in USA, Germany, Japan. In contrast, our government (both Lib and Lab) encourages people to stick to dated industries through government subsidies as seen in sectors like aluminium, alumina, automation, car manufacturing etc. Protectionism is a sure way backwards.
That's why I said earlier on, from a property investment perspective, it's important to pick your areas/suburbs.
@ Bayview: be interested to hear your response to my post that people who are struggling are those who can't keep up with competition and/or new ways of doing things. People who get their heads around the dated business models are thriving.
Yep - although I have one in this area, we're not looking at selling and have long term tenants. It did make as net loss last year ... of $600-odd ... so not looking to sell any time soon.
Fortunately also have another two in a demand area that will continue to improve.
However - I think what Bayview is getting at is that, in his area (and mine in a certain socio group) things are not hunky dory as being made out by the stats.
Such as the mining industry in the Hunter Valley - 100 jobs lost here, 40 lost there, 800 somewhere else, 1400 if hubby's mine doesn't get an extension and closes next year.
http://www.abc.net.au/upperhunter/topics/community-and-society/unemployment/?page=1
Taking a macro stat view of the whole country does not deal with the micro issues of quite substantial population areas that are struggling.
I agree - and have said for a long time - that we, as a country, need to be innovative. I could never understand why the government was pouring money into a dying petrol car industry instead of pouring the money into the developing a futuristic electric car industry.
Same with electricity - the top manufacturer or solar panels was based in Australia but went to China when the Government told him to "rack off, we're not interested".
Or specialisation. I attended the Garlic Industry conference two weekends ago (bloody cold in Albury!) and there was enthusiastic discussion about not only combining as an organisation to grow garlic year round - but also to export quality and desirable garlic back to China. At the moment we, as a country, import around 80% of our garlic. Mostly that insipid, plastic looking white stuff from China.
We, as a country, need to play on our strengths and that is quality - cleanliness - toxin free - innovation.
If innovation direction isn't going to come from the government - then it has to come from the people. We need to innovate or die ... in the meantime ... "hubby - stay in that mining job as long as you can!" until I can get the garlic and Boer goat meat on a roll
It's the normal folks mostly - yer tradies, teachers, nurses, retail workers, bar and restaurant staff, etc. These folks are not in the Business model aspect of the discussion.
In the business community side; I have a decent number of contacts and friends in various industries. Of course; some are flying, some are not.
One of them is part of a very very large family owned home construction and housing estate company here in Vic (they advertise on tv) - they are doing very very well.
Another is the owner of an insurance broking firm that has acquired multiple other agencies - he is doing very,very well.
Another owns a gym franchise Aus wide - he is doing very, very well.
So; I'm not saying some places aren't killing it. Some are.
But, when I tell you all that a very large tyre supplier - Victoria wide - is experiencing their worst 6 months in business - this means that people have stopped spending money on tyres when they otherwise would be, and have been up until this Fin year.
WHY??
It's not like their business model is failing due to a newer improved way of doing it.
It has nothing to do with their business model because they are supplying to other retailers (such as me) and also retail themselves. The physical quantity of units is way less across their whole business.
I have seen an online tyre sale site - a new way of doing it supposedly - and the prices are not cheaper. Maybe they will do ok from the convenience aspect, but I can't see how..folks still need to go in and give the car to someone to do the job at a tyre joint.
I refer to the majority of folks in Aus who are on average wage - and less in this thread.
These are the majority of wage earners we have, and what I see, and what I hear is the opposite of the Paradise of real wage increase - fuel costs, insurance costs, school costs, food, travel, - every farkin thing is more for these folks, but the wage is not moving at the same pace.
I'd be interested to know exactly where these surveys are conducted, and which demographic these folks are surveying. I've never ever been approached for one for eg, and I would say I am pretty much the Average person in most regards (other than being here on SS
)..and I've never lived a higher-end area in my whole life. I did rent a flat in Box Hill for a time though.For eg; if you survey suburbs like Noble Park, or Rosebud - areas like this where the percent of folks is working class and lower; on average wage and lower; the info would probably be different - and worse.
If you survey folks walking around in the city and who work there, it is fair to say that the larger percent would be average wage and above.
If you were to survey folks up and down the Chapel st shopping precinct, it would be fair to assume that the wider majority would be average to above average income. Or say; Burwood; again; average to above average mostly.
If you were to survey the retail assistants in those shops - probably a bit different again. Retail assistants do not earn a lot from my knowledge.
Hence; stats can be swayed. Not saying they are wrong; just saying they don't represent the whole picture.
Everyone here should know that - it's the same with property; which all of us here do research on before buying...the stats come out each week/month/year on the percentage movement of price/median etc - pig's @rse it's accurate.
We all know how many zillion little areas go backwards while others go forwards and others flatline for years and so on.
Yes, that is the nature of statistics.
Example - You could have one sector of the economy that accounts for (at the start of the year) 10% of GDP - and it booms 40% in the year. The other 90% when added together could be at 0% growth for the 12 mths (eg. collectively stagnant). But at the end of the year your GDP will still come back with 4% growth and everything looks sweet on the face of it.
But, in defence of the ABS, when it comes to surveys and the like (afaik) they are aware of these sorts of shortcomings and look to mitigate the bias.
The results are always as accurate as the methodology allows them to be.
Doesn't mean they reflect the experience of you or those around you - but as KeithJ said - your sample size is a bit smaller (and likely more biased) than theirs.
From their website The report looks at the consumer confidence of the population, as well as a detailed breakdown of a variety of subgroups including age, gender, region, lifecycle, socioeconomic status (SES), home ownership, voting preferences, employment status and occupation.
That's not a valid reason to discount it... there's 20m people in Oz who are over 14 & therefore eligible - the chances of you being interviewed are 1 in 20,000.I've never ever been approached for one for eg, and I would say I am pretty much the Average person in most regards (other than being here on SS
If you want to spend the $2000 for the full report, you can see exactly what the consumer confidence level is for each Socio Economic Status.
That's exactly the point I'm making. You having a chat with half a dozen people in one small area is anecdotal, compared with asking 1000 people standardised questions every week over decades.
Sure - all stats come with a pinch of salt. That's why they do ask a representative sample and average the results over a few weeks, by demographic, age, state, occupation, work status, home ownership, voting intentions, etc....
Spot on.
My main line of work, Landscape Construction has seen the worst demand in 4 years ever in the entire time Ive been doing such.
Why?
As Deltaberry remarked correctly with more stats, savings.
People have decided to save by doing some things themselves.
I seem to remember you doing your own landscaping. Cutting the likes of me outta a job !
Sooner or later things may turn around, but when, well, crystal ball stuff.
Re landscaping spend....
I think part of this is demographics.
My folks are in their late 60's a little ahead of most boomers. When they were late 40's and all of their 50's they were career minded and busy with us kids. In the early yrs it was my pocket money job to mow the lawns and any yard jobs my and my brother did and got paid a little.
Then we went to uni and moved out.
For 10 yrs mum and dad paid someone to mow the lawns and paid landscapers to re pave, landscape, cut down trees etc.
Then they retired early as self funded retirees. Started mowing lawns etc themselves, did this for 8yrs or so. Through GFC and the above mentioned conservative savings environment they wanted to ensure they weren't overspending their income so have been fairly careful with any major purchases (including delay of replace motor car)
Now they have had a couple of health issues, they are starting to buy in some services again. I suspect as they age this will happen more with some on/off as they wrestle with the idea that they can/can't do everything physical that they want to. They ignored their fence falling down for yrs and this yr finally had major repair works done by a trade (spent thousands as it got worse and they couldn't ignore, probably spent more than replacement cost - don't get me started on that one)
Now they are finally saying they will replace the car too.
Could this pattern be true (plus minus depending on physical health at various ages etc) of spending patterns?
Harry Dent would say its fairly predictable on a macro level.
I'm not discounting it, Keith; just questioning the all-encompassing belief in it.
If all I ever heard was folks saying how grand it all was, I say; "Hey; those stats were spot on!"
I agree.
But as I have said numerous times now; which noone seems to be grasping here; the chats are not with three old duffers in the next street who bring in their 20 year old Corolla for a tune-up.
It is with many folks from different industries, different locations, different demographics and incomes. Many of our customers may live locally, but many work elsewhere, and almost every one of my friends is from the City areas (where I used to live). I play golf at a few different courses, with all sorts of blokes...the demographic age is mostly the same as me, but the vocations are hugely varied...and so on.
Agree also - but over decades the whole mindset will change 50 times with folks. Hell; less than a year ago, Labour had their worst defeat in history, and now the people want them back again.
And; it has to very widespread across all demographics - is this the case with these surveys in the street?
Ta da!
Look; my argument is not that stats are wrong.
All I am putting forward is that the word on the ground differs from what the Gubbmint will put out there, and my question was WHY is the word different, and I asked for opinions.
Instead, I got Sanj going "bzzzt incorrect" like I was lying an an idiot.
That's fine; be a smart @rse; I don't really care because I can be one too sat times. Just put forward the info I asked for instead of the S.A replies.
