Given the current prices around the country do you still expect your property to double in value by 2014-2017?
Will property values double by 2017?
- Thread starter twobobsworth
- Start date
Get off the grass TBW. 
You know, as I do, that this is un-knowable. I do, however, know there will be a number who will happily extrepolate their recent experiences as far out as you wish.
The important question though is: Should any responses be considered when making my own decisions? I think you already know the answer to that. LOL
You know, as I do, that this is un-knowable. I do, however, know there will be a number who will happily extrepolate their recent experiences as far out as you wish.The important question though is: Should any responses be considered when making my own decisions? I think you already know the answer to that. LOL
Did you omit the "every" deliberately or was it a Freudian slip? There are many "longish" periods when property has languished. Investors got burnt.
Seriously, the notion is too simplistic to commit heavily to. True, it is always best to own your PPOR if you can but that was not the question.
Edit: Investors probably didn't get burned because very high LVRs didn't exist and the rents achieved met all outgoings.
I voted Probably. We've had 4 yrs of flat, so the odds of it doubling in the 14 yrs starting in 2003 are good. When IP gets to be good value (ie rent is close to meeting outgoings) there will be a Definitely from me.
Definately - but only for some properties -
I believe well located capital city proeprties will double in value every 7 to 10 years as they have before.
For a great article quoting a heap of "experts' on this field click here to rear "How long does it take to double your money."
I believe well located capital city proeprties will double in value every 7 to 10 years as they have before.
For a great article quoting a heap of "experts' on this field click here to rear "How long does it take to double your money."
Considering that it has been 3 years since the last peak IMHO the areas
with high demand will come close to doubling their value in 7-10 years.
Remember that for prices to double in the next 7 years we will need to have
an average growth of over 10% or in a 10 year period an average growth of 7.5%.
with high demand will come close to doubling their value in 7-10 years.
Remember that for prices to double in the next 7 years we will need to have
an average growth of over 10% or in a 10 year period an average growth of 7.5%.
I voted probably too, though for a different reason.
Equities markets are already up more than 100% in 4 years - and that's without any scarcity value (there's no finite supply of shares, like there is land), and, as far as I can see, no immediate end to the boom is in sight.
Imho when the tide turns on the equities markets (and it will turn), investors will rush back towards real assets. Even if the returns aren't great, the security will be appealing to them.
M
Happy mode off...
I may be reading this question all the wrong way...cos I fail to see how the prices over in Hobart or Woollongong or Townsville have the slightest bearing on what we control over here in Perth. The relevancy completely escapes me.
You've got people on here saying things like the last 4 years have been flatish, whilst others have experienced tripling and quadrupling during the same timeframe. I reckon the former might have a good crack at it, and the latter lot Buckleys.
The appreciation graph for differing areas of Oz over the past 10 years is many and varied. I'd suggest the same variance will occur in the next 10 years.
The question - to me - is as broad and as futile as the oft asked question "What do you think of the property market" ?? Happy mode back on.
Buy smart where the population moves and based on history, hard to see market not doubling in next 10 years. I bought pty 18months ago in melbourne for $440,000 and thought it was a peak of market. The thought that it could eventually be worth $650,000 was hard to fathom. After only 18months it is worth $550,000. Buy smart and low.
Well in a world printing fiat currency at a fierce clip it might not be such a jump to double your property in nominal terms in 7 years any more.
I like looking at my IP's in.
Gold ounces / Krugerands
AWOTE multiples
Big Macs
CPI dollars
Doesn't anybody else think it's pretty weird to focus so much on the nominal value? Hey... anybody know the best performing stock market in the world last year?
I like looking at my IP's in.
Gold ounces / Krugerands
AWOTE multiples
Big Macs
CPI dollars
Doesn't anybody else think it's pretty weird to focus so much on the nominal value? Hey... anybody know the best performing stock market in the world last year?
an article in yesterdays
Sunday herald Sun
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21954792-2862,00.html
Data from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria show house prices have increased an average of 9.6 per cent a year over the past 40 years.
The Melbourne median price has climbed from $9700 in March 1967 to $380,000 in March this year.
Sunday herald Sun
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21954792-2862,00.html
Data from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria show house prices have increased an average of 9.6 per cent a year over the past 40 years.
The Melbourne median price has climbed from $9700 in March 1967 to $380,000 in March this year.
"I believe well located capital city proeprties will double in value every 7 to 10 years as they have before." Yardley
-I agree...
-This leads me to think, what about properties that are not well located (what makes a property badly located), do they still double, I'm guessing they would double after 1-3 more years
-I agree...
-This leads me to think, what about properties that are not well located (what makes a property badly located), do they still double, I'm guessing they would double after 1-3 more years
You know there will likely be a healthy dose of hindsight wisdom in this thinking.
We know what the well located properties are now but who knew way back when? Think of the changing character of inner city suburbs as one idea.
I can't think of a good Australian example yet but you can find plenty of US and historical examples of big cities fading away, thinking Detroit as one presently.
I have found the 7-10 year doubling rule stretches back to farmland in Brisbane in the two suburbs I have researched that far, though again it's just a nominal measure. The Brisbane paper used to cost 1c back when the game was beginning with resi prices in Brisbane.
Hi all,
Long time listener first time caller as they say.
There is absolutley no way you are going to see a doubling in prices. More like a halving in prices.
Real estate is sound investment, if you know what you are doing.....however it isn't risk free.
The doubling every 7 years is a myth that a lot of real estate agents tell you, but it is certainly not true. My accountant tried to pass me that myth once, but he also told me that Amway is a wise and safe business.
Anyway, I am of the opinion that instead at looking for capital growth in the next few years, it would be wise for people to look for ROI. Real estate is terribly over-valued when you look at it's ROI.
In my humble opinion, there should be another option in the survey, that being "expecting real-estate to halve in price by 2017".
Thanks for you time and good luck.
mbl.
Long time listener first time caller as they say.
There is absolutley no way you are going to see a doubling in prices. More like a halving in prices.
Real estate is sound investment, if you know what you are doing.....however it isn't risk free.
The doubling every 7 years is a myth that a lot of real estate agents tell you, but it is certainly not true. My accountant tried to pass me that myth once, but he also told me that Amway is a wise and safe business.
Anyway, I am of the opinion that instead at looking for capital growth in the next few years, it would be wise for people to look for ROI. Real estate is terribly over-valued when you look at it's ROI.
In my humble opinion, there should be another option in the survey, that being "expecting real-estate to halve in price by 2017".
Thanks for you time and good luck.
mbl.
mbl I think you might mean yield and not ROI.
Tis not a myth I tells ya! The black pearl is real my hearties and property does double ever 7-10 years in nominal terms give or take and save exceptions and past results are no guarantee etc.
Far out even in the worst areas of the US they haven't had a halving in prices from what I have seen, that's going to be a ripper of a fall. Where would you be invested presently if you believe this?
Also there's nothing dangerous about Amway particulary last time I checked, unless happy vibes can kill you.
Oh boy.. tis possible I guess.
But what are you going to do? Bet against a trend that's been around two hundred years or go with the flow? Is peak oil going to be a bigger event that the cuban missile crisis or WW2?
It's not yet tinned food, bottled water and can opener time I'm betting with my investment dollars presently.
You know what they say....when America sneezes.......this is only the beginning.
I'm not a doomsdayer.......it is just simple....property prices in the passed 7 or so year have more than doubled, but wages ?
Anyway this boom was caused buy very easy lending by the banks, and they are getting ready to close the credit tap.....
So what would I be invested in currently ? Easy.....cash. Cash will be very hard to come by in a couple of years......banks will tighten lending standards, and there will be a hell of a lot of inventory on the market to choose from.
repeat after me.....cash. This cycle happened before.......think back to the early 90's...a lot of people got burnt then....but nothing like how many and at what level they are going to get burnt now.
I dont understand how you can base your assumption purely on your speculation. The last boom was not only caused by easty lending by the banks. I can assure you that there was a large amount of factors that contributed to it. I am thinking back to the early 90's. You might be right about people getting burnt but people will always get burnt in property especially in a flat market where more than a deposit is needed to buy a house. Research, data analysis and good budgeting is required.
However since the 90's to now my parents property has tripled. So if you are comparing this day and age to the 90's then that is great news for us all. In around 10 years all our property would have doubled! Woohoooo!
Your glass is surely half empty.. Good luck
However since the 90's to now my parents property has tripled. So if you are comparing this day and age to the 90's then that is great news for us all. In around 10 years all our property would have doubled! Woohoooo!
Your glass is surely half empty.. Good luck
