Zero Percent Interest Rate - Steve Keen

[tcocaro]

evand you have taken this line on several posts and its plain wrong. This is the FIRST article ive seen to debate Keen or at least question both his motives and soundness of his predictions.

I have not embraced the article as supporting my views as you purport, it doesn't even try to critique Keens views it merely raises a point which like myself and many on this forum have been saying for a while and that is where is the "other side" to the debate. - There has been no serious attempt to date.

Stop assuming our motives it is getting really annoying. I even tried writing the post in a way to avoid (literally you) coming to post the same thing time and time again. My post raised first a foremost that its high-time someone at least questioned Keen.

Your comments are frustrating because there is NO WAY to debate Keen without you posting the same type of response over and over again like a parrot.

This is just another example of giving one media story credibility because it aligns with our existing beliefs while bagging others that dont.

You guys have to stop trying to stay in your comfort zones in this manner (and others). It might make you feel warm and fuzzy inside but doesn't get you far.

In fact could get you in more financial trouble than taking on board S Keens predictions or at least acknowledging them.

 

[evand]

I could say exactly the same of you and others. I suppose its because we are debating from a reason we believe and that doesn't change. Or shouldn't.

I see it time and time again on here where one media story is bagged and others are given instant credibility. I started to think why. And the reason is this:

People do not like to believe, admit or acknowledge something they don't want to happen, something they dont believe will happen and something that could lead to financial disaster for them. Its human nature and this denial can lead to people repeating the same financial mistake.

Similarly, people like to give credibility to articles or stories that confirm their existing path (or beleifs or values) as it makes them feel their decisions are right and there's great comfort in that.

Whether its a right or wrong path isnt a priority as long as it doesnt make people feel uncomfortable about their decisions or threaten them in any way.

I have been investing and in business for so long i have just about seen it all and this stuff doesn't bother me one bit. I react the same if someone in the media is saying that property will rise 40% to someone saying it will fall 40%.

Regarding the debate. You're 100% right, there has been no debate at all. But there is plenty of opportunity for anyone to debate him, publicly or otherwise.

Its a free country. You guys shouldnt be complaining that there isnt a debate with him. You should be asking "where are the debaters?"

Who'll take him on? I'd love to see it.

It actually reminds me of a Billy Bragg line "virtue that isn't tested is no virtue at all" in the sense that his predictions arent tested at all. They are just predictions so far. Untested ones at that.

Your comments are frustrating because there is NO WAY to debate Keen without you posting the same type of response over and over again like a parrot.

 

[Pushka]

In fact could get you in more financial trouble than taking on board S Keens predictions or at least acknowledging them.

I think taking Keen's predictions on board WILL get you into trouble! Why on earth would someone selling their apartment, say that it will drop in value by 40%. Is that something a rational seller would say? Particularly now that it has been given so much airplay? Sheesh, he certainly aint no real estate salesman!

 

[tcocaro]

So you simply repeated the same thing only now it took you two pages to say it.

First. Where have I said I believe the market will boom? Find me the post and reference it please. Given I haven't please stop putting words in my mouth. I find anyone claiming a 40% boom in this economic climate just as ignorant as Keen.

Second. The argument that all views and comments should be at least "factored in" sounds awfully similar global warming naysayers stating theres some scientists claiming that this is a natural occurrence. Giving such views any credibility does not lead to sound decision making it simply fragments and serves to distort the overwhelming fact.

Just like Keen. The FACT is prices have not collapsed, unemployment is tipped at worst case to hit 6% by next year, we are still in positive economic growth. To give credibility to someone saying 40% falls, 20% unemployment and depression (in Australia!) is as fruitful as saying global warming is due to natural cyclical reasons.. or that smoking doesn't cause cancer...

Third. Who will take him on? I am sure there is a line as far as the eye can see or people prepared to do exactly that. Problem is, i am not Murdoch nor do I hold any sway on what the media does or doesn't do so all we can do is wait.

So please stop purporting that we are blind sheep seeking good press and holding it up as proof that times have suddenly changes and confirmation of our own beliefs. If that is your true position then hold a mirror up, it applies to you given your response is always the same regardless if its me or someone else saying anything you don't like.

My issue is you twist what I say... rather than argue the points made.

I could say exactly the same of you and others. I suppose its because we are debating from a reason we believe and that doesn't change. Or shouldn't.

I see it time and time again on here where one media story is bagged and others are given instant credibility. I started to think why. And the reason is this:

People do not like to believe, admit or acknowledge something they don't want to happen, something they dont believe will happen and something that could lead to financial disaster for them. Its human nature and this denial can lead to people repeating the same financial mistake.

Similarly, people like to give credibility to articles or stories that confirm their existing path (or beleifs or values) as it makes them feel their decisions are right and there's great comfort in that.

Whether its a right or wrong path isnt a priority as long as it doesnt make people feel uncomfortable about their decisions or threaten them in any way.

I have been investing and in business for so long i have just about seen it all and this stuff doesn't bother me one bit. I react the same if someone in the media is saying that property will rise 40% to someone saying it will fall 40%.

Regarding the debate. You're 100% right, there has been no debate at all. But there is plenty of opportunity for anyone to debate him, publicly or otherwise.

Its a free country. You guys shouldnt be complaining that there isnt a debate with him. You should be asking "where are the debaters?"

Who'll take him on? I'd love to see it.

It actually reminds me of a Billy Bragg line "virtue that isn't tested is no virtue at all" in the sense that his predictions arent tested at all. They are just predictions so far. Untested ones at that.

 

[HiEquity]

I think taking Keen's predictions on board WILL get you into trouble! Why on earth would someone selling their apartment, say that it will drop in value by 40%. Is that something a rational seller would say? Particularly now that it has been given so much airplay? Sheesh, he certainly aint no real estate salesman!

Firstly let me just say I have no problem with how the media handle this debate through both the highs and lows. They are just doing what they do to keep audience numbers up and protecting their business in an environment of stiff competition. Does anyone seriously expect them to behave any differently? They aren't here to serve the nation - they are here to make a profit - just like the rest of us...

Anyway, I think we can make some reasonable assumptions about Assoc Prof Keen, such as:
1- He is, like nearly all of us, better at looking after his own interests than anyone else's.
2- His ability to look after his own interests is clearly lacking.
3- Therefore, his ability to advise anyone else is....

'Nuff said.

 

[Rolf Latham]

Hiya Push

He is indeed a very good sales person

Look at the message that is being sold

ta
rolf

 

[Max Carnage]

First. Where have I said I believe the market will boom? Find me the post and reference it please. Given I haven't please stop putting words in my mouth.

To give credibility to someone saying 40% falls, 20% unemployment and depression (in Australia!)

To turn your own words against you: First. Where has he said 20% unemployment? Find me the quote and reference it please. Otherwise please stop putting words in his mouth.

is as fruitful as saying global warming is due to natural cyclical reasons.. or that smoking doesn't cause cancer...

Oh the irony here is delicious!

Gerard Henderson from the Sydney Institute is very reluctant about identifying his supporters - and claims it is not relevant. For a start, he says, his organisation only promotes discussion and debate: it does not seek to lobby governments. He also says his weekly column in this newspaper - which is compiled using institute resources and gives his institute email address - is "totally separate". It is written in his name, not representing the institute's views.

Henderson has attracted publicity over a $10,000 "charitable donation" given to the institute by Philip Morris in 1993. Before then he wrote in support of tobacco industry positions, describing smokers as a "disadvantaged minority" and criticising "social regulators". He has written little on tobacco since.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/11/1060588322537.html

 

[evand]

This is getting bizarre...where did i say that you said the market will boom? I dont put words in peoples mouths. And i certainly dont twist what you say, i only post what i believe and hope you do the same.

Investing/business success is about logic, not emotion. And logic tells me a big fall could happen so i need to plan accordingly.

I dont pay attaention to what i want to happen or what i dont want to happen. I pay attention to what could happen.

Also, I'm not saying i don't like what you guys are saying. I am saying at least acknowledge it is possible. Because it is.

Last year i was saying on here we are heading into very rough times and i was pretty much ignored or accused as a D&Ger.

I implemented plans accordingly well before last last year and now i'm in a fantastic position.

I have been perusing carsales.com.au lately looking for a bargain luxury car from the financially stretched (thats the nice description ) people who have to sell. Theres plenty of Porsches, Beemers etc on there, many more than a few months ago.

These people were probably in denial and are now in trouble. Having to sell their depreciating assets.

First. Where have I said I believe the market will boom? Find me the post and reference it please. Given I haven't please stop putting words in my mouth. I find anyone claiming a 40% boom in this economic climate just as ignorant as Keen.

Second. The argument that all views and comments should be at least "factored in" sounds awfully similar global warming naysayers stating theres some scientists claiming that this is a natural occurrence. Giving such views any credibility does not lead to sound decision making it simply fragments and serves to distort the overwhelming fact.

Just like Keen. The FACT is prices have not collapsed, unemployment is tipped at worst case to hit 6% by next year, we are still in positive economic growth. To give credibility to someone saying 40% falls, 20% unemployment and depression (in Australia!) is as fruitful as saying global warming is due to natural cyclical reasons.. or that smoking doesn't cause cancer...

Third. Who will take him on? I am sure there is a line as far as the eye can see or people prepared to do exactly that. Problem is, i am not Murdoch nor do I hold any sway on what the media does or doesn't do so all we can do is wait.

So please stop purporting that we are blind sheep seeking good press and holding it up as proof that times have suddenly changes and confirmation of our own beliefs. If that is your true position then hold a mirror up, it applies to you given your response is always the same regardless if its me or someone else saying anything you don't like.

My issue is you twist what I say... rather than argue the points made.

 

[evand]

He is selling his apartment before it drops in value by 40%. Isnt that whats he's doing?

I think taking Keen's predictions on board WILL get you into trouble! Why on earth would someone selling their apartment, say that it will drop in value by 40%. Is that something a rational seller would say? Particularly now that it has been given so much airplay? Sheesh, he certainly aint no real estate salesman!

 

[tcocaro]

To turn your own words against you: First. Where has he said 20% unemployment? Find me the quote and reference it please. Otherwise please stop putting words in his mouth.

7:30 report 08/10/2008

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: Best case scenario is a recession more severe
than 1990 and lasting one and a half times as long.

Worst case is something up to the level of the Great Depression which
was 20 per cent unemployment and lasting up to a decade.

-- good enough for you?

Oh the irony here is delicious!
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/11/1060588322537.html

Again by you quoting this you are assuming that my original post on the topic was an attempt to "support my views". Tell me what is my view exactly?

I don't care at all about Gerard Henderson, only that his latest article represents the first serious attempt at at least questioning the rhetoric.

Your quote only shows an inference of bias by Gerard Henderson on a topic i merely mentioned to argue a completely different topic???

So please.. continue googling and quoting irrelevant points of information but it adds nothing to what we are arguing here.

 

[willfong]

To turn your own words against you: First. Where has he said 20% unemployment? Find me the quote and reference it please. Otherwise please stop putting words in his mouth.

Oh the irony here is delicious!

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2008/s2385821.htm

"PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: Best case scenario is a recession more severe than 1990 and lasting one and a half times as long.

Worst case is something up to the level of the Great Depression which was 20 per cent unemployment and lasting up to a decade. "

To be fair he did say worst case.

 

[Ausprop]

I have been perusing carsales.com.au lately looking for a bargain luxury car from the financially stretched (thats the nice description ) people who have to sell. Theres plenty of Porsches, Beemers etc on there, many more than a few months ago.

These people were probably in denial and are now in trouble. Having to sell their depreciating assets.

you may be 'filtering' to support your perceptions. I went into a merc dealership 2 weeks ago to investigate that 5.65% offer they had going. the guy was gong thru the line up and said "of course you could pick up the SL there for $500k+" it had a sold sticker on and i was curious to know what sort of profile of person was buying - he said a business owner had walked in the day before and bought 2, one for each partner. He said business was booming. the salesman didnt even bother callign me to see if i wanted to buy anything and when he finally rang on Friday and i asked him if he could call me back later that day I am still waiting for a call.

 

[tcocaro]

He didn't sell. At auction there was offers within the agents guidance of 500-550.. 505k was the offer from memory.

So by NOT selling what exactly is he doing?

Holding out for a better price.

How? prices are plummeting arnt they? 40% to be exact (max carnage happy to quote if requested).

You don't sell at auction because you believe you can get a better price later end of story. There is no other reason.

Such hypocrisy.

He is selling his apartment before it drops in value by 40%. Isnt that whats he's doing?

 

[Max Carnage]

7:30 report 08/10/2008

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: Best case scenario is a recession more severe
than 1990 and lasting one and a half times as long.

Worst case is something up to the level of the Great Depression which
was 20 per cent unemployment and lasting up to a decade.

-- good enough for you?

Yep, that is the truth I knew already. It puts a lie to Henderson's words: "he notched up his estimate of looming unemployment to 20 per cent."

He didn't at all.

It also puts the lie to your words: "To give credibility to someone saying 40% falls, 20% unemployment and depression (in Australia!)"

He didn't say that at all. Did he?

Again by you quoting this you are assuming that my original post on the topic was an attempt to "support my views". Tell me what is my view exactly?

You made it very clear in your opening salvo: "Very well written."

It's not. It's garbage, full of half-truths and lies (which you subsequently propagated).

I don't care at all about Gerard Henderson, only that it represents the first serious attempt at at least questioning the rhetoric.

No, a "serious attempt to question the rhetoric" would at least brush on the economic theory that underlies Keen's expectations. There was none of that (and none amongst the highly uninformed opinions that spout off against Keen repeatedly on this forum!). No, he preferred to infer that the reason Keen says what he says is because "he likes the media attention" and "to receive maximum coverage" had deliberately "err[ed] on the side of hyperbole".

Let me repeat myself. This is not "very well written" and certainly not a "serious attempt at at least questioning the rhetoric".

This is your view, is it not? I pose to you that it is ill-considered. I further pose to you that I have not misrepresented the intent of your post.

 

[Max Carnage]

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2008/s2385821.htm

"PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: Best case scenario is a recession more severe than 1990 and lasting one and a half times as long.

Worst case is something up to the level of the Great Depression which was 20 per cent unemployment and lasting up to a decade. "

To be fair he did say worst case.

Right. "Worst case is something up to ... 20 per cent unemployment"

That is not the way it was portrayed in the Henderson article. It was grossly misrepresented.

 

[tcocaro]

Max,

Its obvious you got agitated because I actually substantiated my claim. And no i don't believe you when you say "Yep, that is the truth I knew already."

I am happy for you to disagree with the article..

Your original response was an attempt to be coy. You got served and now your angry.

I have linked below a link to a transcript that shows Keen stating; 40% price falls, 20% unemployment and depression. He has said it over and over again.

If i could be bothered I would also quote where he has said 30% hour price falls, 10-15% unemployment. He is all over the shop.

Before you reply drink some herbal tea and take a breath.


http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200808/s2324011.htm

 

[evand]

Mate, he is talking about a 40% fall over a long time frame. That he is allegedly holding out for a higher price RIGHT NOW is of no relevance.

Its not like he's saying property will 40% in the next month and i better take the best offer i can get.

In holding out for a better price he is no different to any other seller. No hypocrisy there that i can see.

He didn't sell. At auction there was offers within the agents guidance of 500-550.. 505k was the offer from memory.

So by NOT selling what exactly is he doing?

Holding out for a better price.

How? prices are plummeting arnt they? 40% to be exact (max carnage happy to quote if requested).

You don't sell at auction because you believe you can get a better price later end of story. There is no other reason.

Such hypocrisy.

 

[evand]

That's your experience and its a good one. I accept there is still a few people with money to burn out there, always will be.

I am after a used, late model private sale by a distressed seller who cant handle the payments any longer. (just about all of them)

I was going to buy one earlier this year but the seller turned out to be a tosser who stuffed me around so i held off for a while. I guessed i would get a cheaper one later on and there's no shortage.

you may be 'filtering' to support your perceptions. I went into a merc dealership 2 weeks ago to investigate that 5.65% offer they had going. the guy was gong thru the line up and said "of course you could pick up the SL there for $500k+" it had a sold sticker on and i was curious to know what sort of profile of person was buying - he said a business owner had walked in the day before and bought 2, one for each partner. He said business was booming. the salesman didnt even bother callign me to see if i wanted to buy anything and when he finally rang on Friday and i asked him if he could call me back later that day I am still waiting for a call.

 

[tcocaro]

How is it "grossly" misrepresented? Keen said WORSE than the recession of 1990 - unemployment hit in 1993 i think from memory 10.9%?

So by "worse" he means greater than 10.9% and this was his "best case" so given Keens "worst case" is 20% then whats his own view? 18%?

His own words mate.. in black and white.

Right. "Worst case is something up to ... 20 per cent unemployment"

That is not the way it was portrayed in the Henderson article. It was grossly misrepresented.

 

[Max Carnage]

Max,

Its obvious you got agitated because I actually substantiated my claim. And no i don't believe you when you say "Yep, that is the truth I knew already."

Well I read it on 'The Forum that Must Not Be Named' quite a while before I posted here. Which is why I was so confident that you could not substantiate your claim that Keen had forecast 20% unemployment.

Otherwise why would I have challenged you? That would have been foolish. I like to think I am not.