2007 election 24 Nov

[JoannaK]

I can't see Labor suddenly unionising the country again. That horse has bolted, surely.

Nope, that horse hasn't bolted.

Try working in the building/construction/development industry in a unionised environment - not an easy task for sure! Just having labor in at a state level makes it difficult, if it were labour australia wide then the whole industry will be in strife.

When we were developing our last job our building team were constantly harrassed by the unions and you know what they'd say? "Wait till labor gets in at the next fed election...then we'll really have the power".

 

[natmarie73]

Yes there are still a lot of industries that are heavily unionised. Construction is one, black coal is another, teaching, nursing and even retail.

I don't think Labor will give them any more power then they have - Rudd can't make any changes to Workchoices legislation until he has power in the Senate and that won't be for another 3 years if then.

Most most booming industries in the current economy eg coal and construction are the most heavily unionised, so the myth that unions = less productivity is just that. In fact, considering that 90% of what union officials do is OHS related, they probably increase productivity by ensuring that less workers are killed and injured on the job thus avoiding lengthy investigations, site shut downs and prosecutions. Still, it would be good to see the extreme militants done away with as they are unable to see anything from the employer's point of view and I agree they are troublesome

When I worked as an office manager for Bovis McLaughlan on the Warringah Mall redevelopment in the late 90's the principal contractor had more trouble with the council and local residents than they ever had with the unions. .

 

[Ol School Skata]

Is it just me or does Kevin Rudd seem incredibly scripted & practiced.

Everytime i see him on tv he talks about a bridge to far, when it comes to, etc.

a bit on spontaneity wouldn't go astray.

OSS

 

[s_t]

Is it just me or does Kevin Rudd seem incredibly scripted & practiced.

Everytime i see him on tv he talks about a bridge to far, when it comes to, etc.

a bit on spontaneity wouldn't go astray.

OSS

Yep, very. Dont think we really 'know' him yet.....just the practised face/talk.

 

[MarkB]

OSS

There's no question that Rudd feels the weight of the ALPs expectations on his shoulders. He's favourite, for sure. If he loses (and it will be him, if they lose) he wont be able to lie down for a year for all the knives in his back afterwards.

Still, I don't feel at all sorry for him. I don't like him - one bit.

Natmarie

Yeah, it may take a few years for the ALP to get absolute power in the senate, but if they win I expect they'll still have the numbers c/- the smaller parties (see my earlier diatribe about my thoughts on minor parties and their divisive and destructive influence on Australian politics).

Also remember that Australia hasn't had a one-term federal government since (at least) before WW2 (Gough Whitlam was re-elected in '74, hence he was a 2 term PM). So if the ALP win then we're stuck with them, for a while at least.

Mike

Yes, under the RBA Act the Treasurer of the day can veto the actions of the Reserve Bank in the event of any material inconsistency in policy, but:

1. I am not aware of that power ever being exercised
2. I doubt Costello even has that power at the moment (he is officially Caretaker Treasurer since the GG has dissolved Parliament in preparation for the election), and
3. On the assumption he did have that power (if # 2 was wrong), it would be politically very dangerous during an election campaign.


M

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Many varied and interesting opinions, with peoples preferences coming out.

I wonder though, how many of us can separate our hearts from our head?? ie not who we think should win and why, but who we think will win and why.

Do the polls over the last year mean anything??
Do the promises mean anything in changing the voting patterns?
Are the gaffs going to influence voting preferences?
Will the local standing candidates influence the overall election result?

To answer my own questions

The polls over the last year, have not changed much, despite the vast amount of political 'news' over the same period. I therefore think they indicate a change in mood of the overall electorate.

Promises Read my lips, there will never ever be a GST/children overboard/interest rate rise/no child will ever live in poverty and it wasn't a core promise anyway.
I think the time of effective carrots has passed with the electorate. As someone has already stated, there is not that much difference between them anyway.

Gaffs. I think that gaffs could be more detrimental to Kev than Johnny. Kev is not proven as a leader, so gaffs could quickly weaken him. Johnny, on the other hand has been around and made a few before, and we all survived so are more use to it.

Local standing candidates We have the choice between tweedle dum, and tweedle even dumber. I would love our seat to be marginal, as the parties would then treat the electorate here seriously.

bye

 

[MarkB]

I wonder though, how many of us can separate our hearts from our head?? ie not who we think should win and why, but who we think will win and why.

No secrets here - I would like to see the coalition returned.

There are considerable uncertainties surrounding the ALPs attitudes towards:

- Economic management (Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, everything)
- Welfare and social payments, and
- Trade unions and workplace reform (ditto everything that Joanna has said)

Certainly with respect to # 3 they have indicated a preference to wind the clock back a few years - not good.

It is for these reasons that I believe that whatever chances there are of hard times ahead for the Australian economy (and hence the Australian people) - they at least double under an ALP government.

M

 

[JoannaK]

i think people vote with one thing in their minds; their hip pocket. people really have had a great time of it over the last few years, and most wouldn't want to upset the apple cart.

i don't think the polls give an accurate reflection of the general mood in the electorate; i heard someone from Newspoll on TV the other day and they only sample 1150 people. ONLY 1150 people out of a voting population of 5million +? How can that possibly give any clear idea of the mood of the electorate?

I doubt the local candidates mean too much. Federally people tend to vote for the party, not the man, whereas in state people tend to vote more for the candidate.

just my thoughts.

 

[Debt Junkie]

[2. I doubt Costello even has that power at the moment (he is officially Caretaker Treasurer since the GG has dissolved Parliament in preparation for the election)

And in caretaker period, the encumbent government isn't supposed to be able to make significant policy decisions.

But, would this be considered a signficant policy decision? I'm pretty sure the Tugun bypass was approved during caretaker period a few years back - and ratified once the government was voted back in.

It's a bit of a grey area.

DJ

 

[tubs]

Is it just me or does Kevin Rudd seem incredibly scripted & practiced.

Everytime i see him on tv he talks about a bridge to far, when it comes to, etc.

a bit on spontaneity wouldn't go astray.

OSS

Agreed. We havent seen much of him before the campaign, and for good reason. His speech on the first day was emotionless and forced. He tried to put some zing into it by emphasising words from time to time, and moving his hands, but it looked very hard for him.

This will work badly against him.

Howard, on the other hand, talks as if he's having a conversation with you. Very personal and engaging style.

So far, I think the libs have got labor on the run. But there's a massive gap to close. Still, off to a good start.

 

[Debt Junkie]

Howard, on the other hand, talks as if he's having a conversation with you. Very personal and engaging style.

Depends on the person, I think. I always feel patronised. And slightly nauseous.

Might have something to do with the fact that I just can't bring myself to trust any politician.

DJ

 

[buzzlightyear]

I doubt the local candidates mean too much. Federally people tend to vote for the party, not the man, whereas in state people tend to vote more for the candidate.

JoannaK, I believe progressively local candidates are having a bigger impact. With the cross-over of local, state and federal issues especially when it comes to hospitals/health, water for example, where governments share responsibilities, the ability for local candidiates to deliver for their area cannot be understated. I think this holds more strength in regional and rural areas, where there are many marginal electorates.

There is also a bigger incidence of specific targetted advertising for regions and electorates. Because ultimately, you can lose a safe seat to your opponents by 60-40, however win two marginal seats by 50.1 to 49.9, then you lose the so-called 'popular' vote, but win the election....
......Local is the new global.....

i don't think the polls give an accurate reflection of the general mood in the electorate; i heard someone from Newspoll on TV the other day and they only sample 1150 people. ONLY 1150 people out of a voting population of 5million +? How can that possibly give any clear idea of the mood of the electorate?

Agree there. Based on my local and regional variations of issues and personalities, a sample response from 1150 may give you a mis-leading viw of people's voting intentions. However being down 57-43, is still a long way back despite whatever fudge factor there is in these numbers.

 

[Peter 14.7]

Each election I approach my vote with considered opinion. And each time I have voted Liberal. Is it my hip pcket or demographic? At 41 I can remember the 80's with union power, high interest rates and high unemployment.

The Libs has run the economy very well either by good luck or good management we are sitting pretty.

So will I vote Liberal again. I would but for two issues:

I don't like that Work Choices clearly can be rorted to disadvatage employees. I dont like Union power but Boss power is just as bad.

Global Warming. Libs have done nothing until recently when it became a vot winner because of Labours efforts.

So, do I vote Labour?

My fear is economic mismanagment. Union influence. Rising rates and rising unemployment.

It is tough choice. IMO the election will be closer than the polls say.

Regards, Peter 14.7

 

[equitymate]

I know people who up until recently were seduced by the Kevin07 looking not so sure, second thoughts perhaps ? Polls still point to a Labor landside though.
I just hope if Labor wins nothing bad happens to Kev as the Deputies 84-86 fulltime stint in the Socialist Forum worries me.

 

[LynnH]

Bring on a Labor government - I can hardly wait!!!!

Does anyone remember the 'beer' strikes by the brewery truck drivers just before Christmas - every Christmas!!

And the train strikes - usually before weekends or major events - geez, the SA train drivers even went on strike the day before a state election back in the late 70s/early 80s (guess what happened to the incumbent Labor government!)

Not to mention the baggage handlers' strikes at every major airport - a few days before the Easter and Christmas school holidays - every year!! Everyone going on holidays was most appreciative!!!!!

And more than 70% of a Labor government front bench will consist of former unionists .....

Any bets on how long it will be before the economy is totally down the gurgler?????

Cheers
LynnH

 

[Brenda Irwin]

Forgive me if this link has already been posted but the play on words as fantastic. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAOUKX-Myc0

 

[Brenda Irwin]

Maybe it's just me but the singer playing R U double D, reminds me of
Sp A double N.

 

[hagel]

Not exactly sure how Howard is lining up his own pockets but will take your word for it. Whether its good economic management or just a worldwide phenomena, Australian workers really haven't had it this good. Employers are now finding it very difficult to hire workers and most are bending over backwards to find and keep good quality staff. The powers have certainly turned. But if the plebs are still whining about benefits and work rights, they really need to get off their lazy ars* and start upskilling. Our unemployment rate should be <1%. The unproductive leeches should be shipped off to Sudan to see how people over there take things for granted. Or they can be shot, theres plenty of people waiting to come into this country to make something of themselves.

This whole blame culture has got to stop! One of my tenants rang up the other week and said he may have to give his lease up on one of our shops because he can't find anyone to do the deliveries nor run his shop. He is paying more than award wages and I'm sure it'll be cash too. He tells me no one wants to work at all and this is in an area which I know have a high proportion of Centrelink benefits being paid. Riles me no end!

I couldn't help but think when Howard changed the super rules to put in an unlimited amount of money into super with maximum tax contributions (15%) as opposed to paying 45% CGT, up until 30th June 2007, the changes would benefit him and his friends. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong in my thoughts.

 

[yo yo ma]

And more than 70% of a Labor government front bench will consist of former unionists .....

Different spin on this written in The Age today. Edit below...

Needing a better buzz
Derogatory and unconvincing ads are doing the Liberals more harm than good. One thing John Howard might consider doing to win back support is to stop being so negative. Labor's treasury spokesman, Wayne Swan, has never been a union official, yet we keep seeing mug shots of Swan stamped with the words "trade unionist".

Another Labor bogey whose mug shot features in the anti-union ads is Julia Gillard. Her sin? She was once a trade union lawyer. The truth is she was a partner at Melbourne law firm Slater & Gordon. They act for a number of unions.

Does the fact that Gillard may have once acted for a union mean she is susceptible to a union plot to take over the Federal Government? It's such a tenuous connection that it undermines the credibility of the entire advertisement.

It's not as if the Liberals don't have influential friends whose character could be called into question. People like Visy boss Richard Pratt, one of the Liberal Party's biggest corporate donors and now a confessed price-fixing cheat.

The main point about the Liberals' negative ads is that they don't say all that much that cuts through. Another consequence of running so many negative ads is that they open the door for Kevin Rudd to emphasise positive messages.

Steve

 

[Ausprop]

I couldn't help but think when Howard changed the super rules to put in an unlimited amount of money into super with maximum tax contributions (15%) as opposed to paying 45% CGT, up until 30th June 2007, the changes would benefit him and his friends. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong in my thoughts.

is a pretty far fetched / tenuous link to suggest he changed the super rules for the entire nation out of his selfish need to contribute.

apathy of the good times that abound us will almost certainly see a change of govt. It's a viscious cycle.