ALP Doomed but how many seats will they get?

Peter 14.7

Peter 14.7

With the looming election it feels to me like a long drawn out death. 99.9% predict NLP win. Tatts Bet has then win paying $1.08 for $1 down. ALP is $7.50

Even the ALP pollies are packing up shops

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...ng-as-election-loss-looms-20130606-2nrfd.html

And on the question of seats it seems the safe money is on 20 to 30 seats in the lower house. Worth noting that ALP and NLP has 72 each at the moment.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/exlabor-pollster-tips-epic-disaster-20130605-2nqlb.html

So what do you think? 40 seats ALP? 30 Seats or less than 20 seats?

And back to those odds. I am not betting man so if I am reading it right, it seems to me an easy way to 8% over 100 days investment, tax free.? Worth a punt?

Your thoughts Peter 14.7:)
 
Definitely 30 to 40 seats, so a coaster bus defeat.

So, is that 8% guaranteed?

It's called a bet for a reason.
 
HotRod said:
Definitely 30 to 40 seats, so a coaster bus defeat.

So, is that 8% guaranteed?

It's called a bet for a reason.
Click to expand...

It is not. Hence the margin.

The NLP could still lose if 2 to 3 disasters occurred like ( and these are not claims of facts, just hypotheticals)

Abbott was found to have actively covered up catholic child abuse recently; 10% chance
Gillard is killed in accident and Rudd is back; 1%
Really bad and hurtful NLP policy is leaker before the election: 50% chance
NLP splits before election with Turnbull forming new party, splitting NLP vote. 5% chance
We are invaded by Aliens. 0.0001% chance

Regards Peter 14.7
 
I know a guy who put all his savings towards his first house down on the Miami Heat game (which was paying something like $1.09) because it was a sure thing.

He doesn't have a deposit anymore.
 
CJay said:
I know a guy who put all his savings towards his first house down on the Miami Heat game (which was paying something like $1.09) because it was a sure thing.

He doesn't have a deposit anymore.
Click to expand...

And that is the thing. I could punt $250k and make $22k or so but hta would be another $22k bonus where the $250k is the new house?

Peter
 
Just buy a cheapy with an 8% yield, then spend the rest on grog and food for the best Election Party celebration ever.

Much more satisfying than winning a dud bet IMHO.

I'm trying to think of a way to have a drinking game where you take a shot for each Liberal seat win, without causing alcohol poisoning.
 
CJay said:
Just buy a cheapy with an 8% yield, then spend the rest on grog and food for the best Election Party celebration ever.

Much more satisfying than winning a dud bet IMHO.

I'm trying to think of a way to have a drinking game where you take a shot for each Liberal seat win, without causing alcohol poisoning.
Click to expand...

Don't use spirits! Shots of beer - much safer ;)

Have done 100 shots of beer in 100 minutes when I was back in my drinking prime... Was hung over for a few days afterwards but can definitely be done!

I don't think I'll be quite as enthusiatic on the turps but I'll definitely be raising a glass when Labor gets turfed out in 100 days. Hey, there's that number again...
 
I don't care if you vote NLP or the ALP come September, but folks do your country a favour and don't vote for the Greens, nor an Independent..... FFS I couldn't go through 3 more years of this S**T
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Peter 14.7
Game Change: Bob Carr as backup PM?
2 3
Replies
44
Views
5K
The Fence
T
Back
Top