ANZ Australian Property Outlook

[eggnog]

Thought I might start contributing some of the relevant and interesting articles I read to the board. Hope these posts will help others.

BTW, Most of them will be for the Queensland/Brisbane markets coz thats where I live/invest in

http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/Property Outlook January 2008.pdf


Summary
- Chronic housing supply to increase into the future
- Rental squeaze to continue with increasing rents

 

[ianvestor]

Chronic housing supply to increase into the future

I think you mean chronic housing shortage.

Thanks for the article.

 

[hfw]

ANZ's mildly bullish outlook seems to be based on a shortage of property.

Isn't the shortage of properties in some way related to the rate of household formation. As far as I understand (and I haven't looked at the figures) hasn't this been increasing for years. How sensitive is this to interest rate / rent changes? Does anyone hae a view?

 

[alexlee]

If demand is growing faster than supply, the price increases. But which price? For property, there are purchase prices and rents, because the 'demand' can choose to rent or buy. Prices can still fall or stagnate or whatever even in an undersupply situation because the demand can go into renting.

The reverse happened during the peak in Sydney around '02 - '03. Prices had been increasing, but oversupply was developing resulting in rent free periods, etc.
Alex

 

[sash]

Thanks cashflow.

Interesting....this is exactly what I have also been hearing.

It seems that the supply side for housing will not be fixed for sometime yet due to skills shortages. Further if the underlying shortfall is expected to reach 30k pa....and it is expected that Australia will be short of about 150k homes/units by 2011-2012.

I see a very steady property market in terms of capital growth despite rate rises. Our experience is different to the USA.

Thought I might start contributing some of the relevant and interesting articles I read to the board. Hope these posts will help others.

BTW, Most of them will be for the Queensland/Brisbane markets coz thats where I live/invest in

http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/Property Outlook January 2008.pdf


Summary
- Chronic housing supply to increase into the future
- Rental squeaze to continue with increasing rents

 

[Kennethkohsg]

It seems that the supply side for housing will not be fixed for sometime yet due to skills shortages. Further if the underlying shortfall is expected to reach 30k pa....and it is expected that Australia will be short of about 150k homes/units by 2011-2012.

I see a very steady property market in terms of capital growth despite rate rises. Our experience is different to the USA.

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Dear Sash,

....At this point and probably till 2011-2012 period as international immigration into Australia, has been increasing;-and provided that Kevin Rudd and RBA do not "kill" the Australian Economy with their anti-inflation fight and continued interest rates increases in the near future.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH