ASX 200 low: Predictions time capsule

H

Humphrey

I though it might be fun to get predictions for the ASX low point in a thread that we could look back on in 6-12 months time and see how accurate they were.

I don't actually believe that anyone can predict accurately but it will be interesting to see. So although I wouldn't normally do so, I'll throw my hat in the ring to get us started.

ASX low
Date: 2/6/2009
Low: 1982.5
Reason: Random guess.
 
Was invited to this this thread. I've avoided it till now because I have zero faith in charts' ability to give a level.

But if I were forced, I would give the time for the ultimate low as still a year out. The lower it goes the longer it will take to start the climb back. Re-reading that sentence I think I meant that we are going down some steep stairs from here, not the elevator shaft, and therefore there will be no bounce. A dead cat only bounces if dropped vertically. :D
 
Sunfish said:
Was invited to this this thread. I've avoided it till now because I have zero faith in charts' ability to give a level.

But if I were forced, I would give the time for the ultimate low as still a year out. The lower it goes the longer it will take to start the climb back. Re-reading that sentence I think I meant that we are going down some steep stairs from here, not the elevator shaft, and therefore there will be no bounce. A dead cat only bounces if dropped vertically. :D
Click to expand...

Care to throw a dart... and guess a level?
 
When saying you're thinking of buying shares causes your friends to give you strange looks - thats when I'll start buying.

No where near that yet.
 
Ethann said:
I though it might be fun to get predictions for the ASX low point in a thread that we could look back on in 6-12 months time and see how accurate they were.

I don't actually believe that anyone can predict accurately but it will be interesting to see. So although I wouldn't normally do so, I'll throw my hat in the ring to get us started.

ASX low
Date: 2/6/2009
Low: 1982.5
Reason: Random guess.
Click to expand...

Great idea Ethan... As I religously follow the stock markets and surf heaps of forums for more insight. I develope my own opinions and that should not be followed because I am in no way qualified to give a reliable opinion. However most of my decisions based on my research have been correct for the past 2 years.

People at the moment are liking the current situation to either 1987 or 1929 as do I. Most people are calling 3500 points as the bottom. I will go one step further and call it at 2800 points. For me that's a reasonable request seeing as the crash in 1987 flattened the growth back down to where the boom had started its run.

However the 1929 crash was a lot more severe and if it pans out like this than I will call 1900 points the bottom which will be reached in approximately 2 - 3 years...

It sucks because whilst I was a Uni student the sharemarket was my form of income and now it is no longer the case... I graduated but still love the market for its easy money...

Just my unprofessional amateur opinion... View it with humor in 6 to 12 months
 
Last edited:
Around 3500 for now.

May go down to 2700 next year if things get really bad, but also may not if they stabilise.

I started to buy, very slowly and on yield only: P/E below 6, Dividend above 10%
 
Ethann said:
Care to throw a dart... and guess a level?
Click to expand...

I know it's a game but I just can't think that way. Tonight's markets are all limit-down. Seriously, almost anything is possible.

OK I just looked at the monthly candlestick so I'll say "no way above 3K, could overshoot to <2.5K".

As an aside, the Biz channel is on in the background and it feels a little like 9/11 (with apologies to those who suffered real losses on that day). Friday (US time) is shaping up to be the day which will be marked on the calendar. That's the good news!

The bad news is that it is one of a number :(
 
Sunfish said:
I know it's a game but I just can't think that way. Tonight's markets are all limit-down. Seriously, almost anything is possible.

OK I just looked at the monthly candlestick so I'll say "no way above 3K, could overshoot to <2.5K".

As an aside, the Biz channel is on in the background and it feels a little like 9/11 (with apologies to those who suffered real losses on that day). Friday (US time) is shaping up to be the day which will be marked on the calendar. That's the good news!

The bad news is that it is one of a number :(
Click to expand...

You watching Fox? I hate Fox News with a passion. Can only watch a few minutes and then get so riled that I have to take some medication. But somewhat surprisingly their biz channel is pretty good. I agree that it does have that sort of feel about it. Agree that this could be the day.

I put on another post about the "limit down" and "circuit breakers". Never heard of them before tonight.

Taleb must think that all his Christmas's have come at once.
 
My prediction ASX 200 at 2700

I see futures over Hong Kong's Hang Seng are down over 10% today. I can recall Hang Seng being at these levels in the late 90's

HANG SENG 12,500.00 -1,271.00 prev. 13,379.00
SPI 200 3,688.00 -189.00 prev. 3,842.00

Ethann,

I recall nasdaq futures being limit down during the 2000 tech wreck
 
Predictions are difficult even at the best of times but for what its worth i'd say if support around 3450 is taken out then some place around the 2003 lows of 2670 is possible.
 
Ok heres my big prediction....
wait for it.......
its comming..............
I HAVE NO IDEA


Whats more i am not going to get drawn into stupid forecasts like these, even if its just for fun.

What i am doing in the current market volatility is increasing my minimum margin of safety and increasing the my risk mitigation safety factors (such as increasing required minimum interest cover in companies i am reviewing).
 
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