ASX 200 low: Predictions time capsule
- Thread starter Humphrey
- Start date
Does it matter where the bottem is if you do a BUFFETT and buy for the long term? It will come back wont it? Its just a matter of when. Boxing day 2016 Im going to be at the family BBQ saying something like this "Im so glad I started buying at the end of 2008 they dropped a bit but has been good since.
Can't help myself 3400 jan09
Can't help myself 3400 jan09
Mmmm ..... definitely off the darts team! Am wondering what 'happy juice' you're on, ernie?
Cheers
LynnH
3425 will do it for me. Hard to read the market. All indicators are pointing to the market being massively oversold and due for a bounce yet they just continue to become ever more oversold! Glad i'm not long....yet.
3425 is a 50% retracement from the high for ASX200. When the S&P500 was in a bear market earlier this decade it made its final low at around 750 which was a 50% retracement of its 1500 high made in 2000.
3425 is a 50% retracement from the high for ASX200. When the S&P500 was in a bear market earlier this decade it made its final low at around 750 which was a 50% retracement of its 1500 high made in 2000.
3670 in Dec '08
Looking at some recent history looking at the change in highs and lows and how long they took.
'87 - '87 -50.8% in 1 month
'89 - '91 -30.5% in 16 months
'91 - '92 -18.8% in 12 months
'94 - '95 -20.8% in 12 months
'02 - '03 -21.7% in 13 months
'07 - '08 -43.0% in 12 months (To Date)
My tip
'07 - '08 -44.6% in 13 months
Looking at some recent history looking at the change in highs and lows and how long they took.
'87 - '87 -50.8% in 1 month
'89 - '91 -30.5% in 16 months
'91 - '92 -18.8% in 12 months
'94 - '95 -20.8% in 12 months
'02 - '03 -21.7% in 13 months
'07 - '08 -43.0% in 12 months (To Date)
My tip
'07 - '08 -44.6% in 13 months
Mmmm ..... definitely off the darts team! Am wondering what 'happy juice' you're on, ernie?
Cheers
LynnH
My own, special brew...want some?
god damn - 2800 - that's a sickening low.
that's a kick in the balls.
so, if interest rates are low, which means the returns on cash is low, and inflation is high, which means the erosion of your dollar value is high, are large(er) players like hedge funds, super funds etc still "selling off" and parking their money in cash?
i can tell you three guys i know of who work for AMP, NAB and NAB aren't doing this - they're still buying "bluechips"....
so, if the large(er) players are still buying - why is the market still tanking? are shorts back? because i'm not allowed to short. or is that just a thin curtain for joe average to hide the truth - funds are back to shorting...?
funny how rudd announces a hand out, tells us to spend it and the yen shoots thru the roof making these goods more expensive, with G7 intervention required to bring it back down....
i've said it once, i've said probably, very literally, near on a hundred times now - something is fishy here.
that's a kick in the balls.
so, if interest rates are low, which means the returns on cash is low, and inflation is high, which means the erosion of your dollar value is high, are large(er) players like hedge funds, super funds etc still "selling off" and parking their money in cash?
i can tell you three guys i know of who work for AMP, NAB and NAB aren't doing this - they're still buying "bluechips"....
so, if the large(er) players are still buying - why is the market still tanking? are shorts back? because i'm not allowed to short. or is that just a thin curtain for joe average to hide the truth - funds are back to shorting...?
funny how rudd announces a hand out, tells us to spend it and the yen shoots thru the roof making these goods more expensive, with G7 intervention required to bring it back down....
i've said it once, i've said probably, very literally, near on a hundred times now - something is fishy here.
I think the main reason now for the market trending downwards are forced redemptions because of margin lending.
Market volume is very low, so any significant margin loan selling has an amplified effect on share prices.
My broker told me today he is still doing 3 sell trades for every buy trade from retail clients, mainly due to either forced selling or investors finally being sick of margin loans and selling to completely eliminate the loan, on expectations that prices will just be lower again tomorrow.
This last point especially is giving me greater confidence that we are approaching a bottom. (so long as the majority of retail investors dont start switching their superannuation choices or redeem their funds management units, if this happens get ready for the mother of all collapses).
I spoke to a planner who told me less than a year ago to plonk 100k into a margin loan and go.
When I spoke to him last week - I said - man that was really bad advice - and he said yeah it was - good thing you didnt do it...
BC - yes it is very x-files isnt it... the truth is out there... trust no one...
I look at it and think... if the pros were so wrong really nobody to trust in but yourself, and nobody to blame but yourself if you trust in someone else.
BUT I do have a red hot tip... lol
When I spoke to him last week - I said - man that was really bad advice - and he said yeah it was - good thing you didnt do it...
BC - yes it is very x-files isnt it... the truth is out there... trust no one...
I look at it and think... if the pros were so wrong really nobody to trust in but yourself, and nobody to blame but yourself if you trust in someone else.
BUT I do have a red hot tip... lol
Mate with property you definately have more control, but control and investment returns are not correlated.
I know this is a bit of fun and I don't want to rain on anyone's parade but I would like to remind viewers that a lot of people have lost an awful lot in this so far. I for one don't want to rub salt into anyone's wounds so will not be playing the guessing game. I think for those who are already on the edge of what must seem to be an abyss (think self funded retiree following the advice of any financial planner a year or two ago and I know some) this type of light hearted banter could be rather distressing.
Just thought it was worth a reminder...
Just thought it was worth a reminder...
I agree.... but I am (unfortunately) very serious about my forecast. I count myself among those who have lost a rather large chunk of net worth, and still in evasive action mode trying to recover some semblance of stability. Unfortunately, for those who do find this talk of further falls to come distressing, I think now is not the time to bury the head in the sand and hope things will get better. I do believe it is time to plan for the worst case - if things turn and it all goes roaring back up, and it's all been a bit of a false alarm, I don't think there is much lost in having had a contingency plan.
Cheers,
The Y-man
i agree,some mornings i wake up and think if only i sold when CBA was above the magic $60.00 mark back late last year,i still hold CBA and that's the only Bank i still hold,but my central argument is "IF" the companies that i invested in told the real facts upfront in the middle of last year then i would have sold everything paided all the taxes and still been way ahead
but it did not happen,and i still think what we have seen so far is only the tip of the iceburg,and anyone that knows anything about iceburgs is not whats on the surface that's the worry is the part below the surface that no one can see that worries me, but i have a plan to work through all this mess just may take several years to come back to those pre-07 capital; levels..willair..
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Yes, The market will come back: eventually. But that won't help much if you were mortally wounded in the melee.
Buffett is safe in that regard, but maybe not. I think it was JP Morgan who never recovered fully from the '29 crash.I've come to the conclusion that being half right is no help whatever.
Willair and I debated the worth of the banks for some time and, and as time has shown, I was right. But that didn't help me. I was convinced that being conservatively geared in highly profitable and developing miners I would dodge the bullet. Wrong!
I have now sold out my margin account and will repatriate about $12k when it's nett value was about the qtr mill earlier this year.
I've said it before but I'll repeat it: They don't give medals to heros in the market. Talk to some old pharts at the RSL and they'll you: "Never volunteer".
OK, One more: Discretion is the better part of valour!
It's Julia Lee's theory that the bottom of the market won't be reached until there is total capitulation. So the mother of a all callopse may be yet to come?
http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/b/julialee/49/have-we-found-a-bottom-in-the-market/
Pretty much agree with this. Everything I've read indicates that we are still missing a few indicators of the market bottom. Of course this is based on Dow theory which is 100-odd years old. Maybe it's different this time...
But that's a guess.
Nobody knows, or if they do, they can't be heard over the noise. I know undying optimism is mandatory here on SS but I'm advocating caution, you're saying: "She'll be right mate".I'm not trying to influence you, personally. Just trying to maintain balance and It seems I'll have to do that a lot so I'll apologise in advance.
Sunfish,it's happened to me several times in my investing life one minute you are on a wave that seems endless,then the wave breaks and you end up on the sandbank with no pants and half your bones broken and it's only in the last 11 months that i have the appearance of total failure in the equities markets,but i know one item i'm still standing ,and there is still
cold beer in the fridge and food on the table so who cares i'm only a dumb plumber who thought he was smarter then Mr Market that knocks on my door each morning, and i sometime wonder when i walk through a local inner city park each morning and see 20-60 people drinking,smoking the nitro and all happy around the camp fire having sex in the tress without a worry in the world,and waiting for the good people to come and give them free food -WHO IS RIGHT THEM OR ME?? ..
BTW, you were right with the "Banks"and i was wrong no big problem the next worry for me now will be the devalue of all property prices and with the amount of for sale signs that go up each day in my small investment area then we all know who's next on the chopping block.
imho..willair..
