Brisbane surely is a bargain.

[ugotadollar4me]

Hopefully this means that within 2 yrs the market will be back on track, if we are at the very bottom of the cycle ATM? does anyone know the actual percentage of loss we've had since the loss?

All depends on a lot of things, I know of areas that actually went up in value through 08-09-10 while other areas near by were dropping and then through 2011 the location that went up then took a 20% hit.
I know individual properties that have taken a 50% hit, basically from when someone has bought to when they have sold, one paticular property the owners paid $800,000 and sold for $400,000, what went wrong well they kinda paid to much but they also sold to cheap.
I know lots of properties at the higher end of town that took 40% hits
Cheaper end of town 20% hits.
some properties made profits all the way through the crises.
There is a bunch of reasons why a property can take a larger hit than another property and why a property can make a profit than loose.
In the market I play in, most people have lost 20% plus in the last few years, now is the time to buy as the next few years will claw back.

 

[Angel]

Having lived recently in both USA and Brisbane I can see plenty of factors to suggest that USA has 20% growth potential but Brisbane the opposite.[/QUOTE]

Why would you think that Brisbane can expect a further 20% drop in values from where they are now?

 

[whatever123]

Why would you think that Brisbane can expect a further 20% drop in values from where they are now?

I believe the stimuli that led to the increase in prices from 4 times to 7 times income were not permanent, but they were able to create a relatively short term increase in demand. As we know, if demand increases for an asset with a slow reaction time in its supply, the price will rise and thats exactly what happened in Brisbane (and indeed the rest of the world).

If all the favourable stimuli were to remain, well we might be lucky as that could hold prices up. But if anything was to change in the virtually perfect conditions we have at the moment, then you would definitely see those 20% falls.

Have a look at what you could buy in 2002 in just about any suburb in Brisbane and compare it to current prices. Then look at what has occured over that time ie -10 years of inflation, population growth, income growth etc etc all really great stuff. But is it enough to justify 150% increase over that time? No way.

Its important to look at what really was the major factor that pushed up prices so much and thats plain and simply the Investment boom of 2003-2008.

My suggestion for the future of Brisbane is to watch this investment boom unwind over the next couple of years as investors realise that current yields and capital growth just aren't stacking up to "investment grade" any more.

BTW, I don't really mind what happens as my investments are set and diversified, but I won't be looking at Brisbane property until I see prices coming off by at least 20% whether it happens or not.

 

[Angel]

Thank you, that makes sense.
When you said stimulus, did you mean the Federal Govt's Stimulus in GFC1, or something else?

 

[whatever123]

Thank you, that makes sense.
When you said stimulus, did you mean the Federal Govt's Stimulus in GFC1, or something else?

No not so much, but thats something that has helped sustain it for a bit longer.
The stimuli were the situation that led to the start of the boom way back in 2002/03. ie we had low unemployment, low interest rates (due to 9/11), increasing population, start of mining boom, FHB, -ve gearing, property renovating shows etc . The timing was perfect for all these things to push prices up at a faster pace than normal.

This led to even more investors chasing the capital gains, forgetting about yield and eventually brought us to where we are now.

Hence, I can still see a fair bit of retracement needed to bring prices back to normal.

You always have to ask yourself, why were so many old crumby Qlders selling for 2-3 times wages for a 25-40 year period before the boom, and not many people thought they were a bargain as such ( although some realised they could renovate and make some cash with a bit of hard work which they often did).

But now, we've had a slight drop to where you can pick up a Qlder in Bris for maybe 7 times average wages, and people are yelling "we've hit the bottom, it can't possibly go lower than that"!
Logic and history suggests caution should be taken.

 

[Angel]

OK. Again all makes sense. I wouldnt buy a Queenslander if it was the only place still standing after the Apocolypse. Why? Because they are a terrible money pit. And time pit. I also own a perfectly satisfactory tent.

I'm talking about sub $500K homes in post-war suburbs 8-10 klms from the CBD, with great bus services, a three minute drive to a train station and a major shopping centre or a five minute walk to an ordinary shopping centre. With good schools up the road and possibly a hospital or a university.

You have been discussing the booms in the naughties, what about the previous two booms, in the early 80s and the early 90s? Prices doubled when displaced homesellers from Melbourne's and Sydney's booms moved up here and paid cash for our stock, forcing our prices up so that us locals who hadnt already gotten onto the property ladder couldnt afford to purchase either. (Note the other threads about the current state of "housing unaffordability" and we oldies asking So what?)

 

[Angel]

Can you buy a qlder for 7 times $60,ooo?

When I search houses under $450K, no queenslanders come up. I honestly havent been looking for any, i dont even know if there are any still standing in the places where I drive around. I thought they were about $700K or over?

I wanted to buy one for $20K when i got my first job in1979 and my parents wouldnt let me. When my grandmother died, i wanted to buy her worker's cottage at Bulimba for $7000 and they still wouldnt let me. DONT EVER LISTEN TO YOUR PARENTS!!!

 

[wylie]

I just did a quick search and found a few under $500K -

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-coorparoo-108049491
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-coorparoo-109737761
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-greenslopes-110157457
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-greenslopes-109990801
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-greenslopes-109401921
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-coorparoo-109743756
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-coorparoo-109366651
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-hawthorne-109816251

There are actually more than I thought I would find just in the four suburbs I nominated. Not all "gracious" queenslanders though .

$7000 worker's cottage in Bulimba ... OUCH!!

I always regret not buying a little queenslander that I could have bought on Riding Road, Bulimba for $28K in about 1985... double OUCH!!

 

[Nth Brisbanite]

Property House price doubt mirrors market concern

Interesting recent article about price rises in Perth, Darwin and Brisbane. I have put in bold March increases. This helps to confirm my thought that Brisbane has bottomed and is on an upward move. Respected commentators such as Michael Matusik also think that Brisbane is on the way up.

Property House price doubt mirrors market concern
by: Russell Quinn From: PerthNow April 02, 2012 2:35PM 19
Confusion about accurate Perth median house prices suggests the market is not out of the woods just yet. Source: PerthNow

PERTH'S beleaguered property market may be on the mend, but confusion about accurate median house prices suggests it's not out of the woods yet.

According to RP Data and Rismark International’s hedonic daily home value index for March, released today, Australia’s housing market is showing signs of stabilising after home values nationwide rose 0.2 per cent last month.

RP Data research director Tim Lawless pointed out that while the unchanged quarterly result (0 per cent change in median house prices nationwide) was an improvement on recent quarters, the Sydney housing market - Australia’s largest - had been the primary growth driver, with values in the New South Wales capital rising 1.1 per cent over the quarter.

But Perth was identified as the standout, along with Hobart, in terms of home value growth during the month of March.

PROPERTY prices in Perth may have fallen the past 12 months, but one ritzy riverside suburb has held onto its spot in the nation’s top 10 most expensive.

“While the housing market remains soft, the zero per cent change over the first quarter of 2012 demonstrates that it is consolidating its position following the decline seen in calendar year 2011,” said Ben Skilbeck, Rismark International managing director.

“This month, it was the resource-rich states which delivered the strongest gains, with Perth, Darwin and Brisbane up 1.4 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively.”

 

[Angel]

OMG, what's a queenslander?

Thanks for that list Wylie, nice shopping.
Do we call anything that sits on stumps a queenslander?

 

[wylie]

Thanks for that list Wylie, nice shopping.
Do we call anything that sits on stumps a queenslander?

No. Post war houses sit on stumps and post war and queenslanders are like chalk and cheese. One of those links is really more post war than queenslander.

Probably some of them are more cottage than queenslander, but some would argue that a cottage is still a queenslander.

Queenslander (to me) has verandahs and VJ walls, high ceilings and is on stumps but plenty don't have any verandahs either.

 

[gottabespotless]

Wylie,

Hope you don't mind me picking your brains but, if you had $800 000 to spend on a house within 5km of the Brisbane CBD and wished to be close to Universities, hospitals, etc, with good public transport, not too many big unit complexes around, which suburb would you choose? We are looking to buy as an IP at first but will perhaps move into it in approx 8 to 10 year's time. Cheers.

 

[wylie]

When you say "close to universities" do you mean able to get there easily on public transport? Or do you really mean "close". Depending on your answer, that makes a difference to "where to buy".

 

[gottabespotless]

Ok, sorry - I mean 'easy to get to' on public transport.

I should point out that the only suburb I'm sort-of familiar with is New Farm as we bought an IP (apartment - should have bought a Qld'er for not much more $ than the apartment cost... ah regrets! *sigh*) back in 1997. Shame we can't afford to buy a house there now...

 

[Nth Brisbanite]

Wylie,

Hope you don't mind me picking your brains but, if you had $800 000 to spend on a house within 5km of the Brisbane CBD and wished to be close to Universities, hospitals, etc, with good public transport, not too many big unit complexes around, which suburb would you choose? We are looking to buy as an IP at first but will perhaps move into it in approx 8 to 10 year's time. Cheers.

Indooroopilly, Toowong and St Lucia would be my pick if you wanted something close to the University of Queensland, CBD and good public transport. Toowong and St Lucia have pockets of units but also have some great family homes

 

[Samford]

Ok, sorry - I mean 'easy to get to' on public transport.

I should point out that the only suburb I'm sort-of familiar with is New Farm as we bought an IP (apartment - should have bought a Qld'er for not much more $ than the apartment cost... ah regrets! *sigh*) back in 1997. Shame we can't afford to buy a house there now...

I'd be aiming for Indooroopilly, Toowong, or the other side of the river, i.e. Yeronga. Chelmer/Graceville is worth a look too.

 

[Angel]

What about the Lutwyche area - close to RBH and easy bus to QUT. With the big roadworks due for completion later this year, has this part of town already risen, or not yet? Wilston, The Grange and Windsor have plenty of beautiful real Queenslanders but i dont look at their pricetags, just drool as we drive past.

 

[Nth Brisbanite]

Albion is a hot spot, according to some commentators. It is only 3 km to CBD with plenty of upside. 5 minute train ride into city.

I know a developer who has just bought a site in Lutwyche. He thinks that we have bottomed out in Brisbane.

 

[gottabespotless]

Thanks so much for replies, everybody! I've been studying the real estate websites and maps for a while now . We live a couple of hours from Brisbane so when hubby and I can both get some time off from work at the same time we will head there for a few days to take a look around. Although I'm still wondering (like everybody else I suppose ) if the prices have further to drop.

It's good that Lutwyche and Grange were mentioned as these were two of the suburbs on my short list.

Thanks again .

 

[rowena]

it depends on which university. there is also griffith uni, so i would choose holland park, mount gravatt, mount gravatt east, holland park west if you wanted closer to the city then greenslopes. Lived in the area for over 4 yrs and i love the area! express bus takes less then 15 mins to get to the city from logan rd at mt gravatt east, and the opposite direction you can get a bus to garden city.