First things first, a lot of people associate OTP with apartments and apartments can be negative in a slowing down market as there can be a mass oversupply..
Buy land and pick your builder. That's the only way you can buy below market value. If you buy a package you are paying an extra 50k at least because the builders know people will buy it as getting land in SW and NW is near impossible right now.
Thirdly, buy land where you can see demand will not slow down and prices will not stagnate. Edmondson Park, Glenfield and Leppington will do well. Schofields, Marsden Park and The Ponds will do well..
Don't get scared of what people say about H & L packages, especially out of towners who aren't sure what's happening on the ground..
I think people buying OTP apartments where there is oversupply or prices much higher than they are be will get bitten on the backside..
Lastly, ask people who know these areas inside out and know the demand and where prices are going.
Be very careful with some suburbs..
Buy where there's trains, schools, shops etc going in where people want to live..
I know for a fact that land prices in some parts of Northwest CANNOT go down and will have to go up as I know what the developers have been paying for it and know what they have to sell each lot for to make their profit.. I've met up with the agents selling them the development sites and talk to them about the actual plans the developer has..
e.g. stockland will be selling land for minimum $1200/sqm in Schofields to make a profit because they only recently purchased the land.. If you can buy under that around there you will make money.. The only time i'd pay more than $1300/sqm in NW is in Rouse Hill, Castle Hill, Kellyville and The Ponds.. There was an estate in a farm in Riverstone that sold for $1300/sqm last month.. it's gone up $300/sqm in 3 months. The Ponds went up by $400/sqm within 4 weeks recently too..
in SW, Edmondson Park atm is a fair bit higher than Leppington. I think Leppington has some catching up to do as it's just as good as Edmondson Park as there's a train line there too.. I also know that in Spring Farm (which imo is too far away from anything), landcom is selling half their land to developers.. I know that anyone who buys through landcom before that will be buying at a much cheaper price than what the new private developers will be selling for..
At the end of the day, buy where you know there will be growth and buy where your house after you build it through a builder will be cheaper than just buying the package. You don't need a crystal ball to see that.. Look at the trends, ask about demand, find out buiding prices too if you were to buy land so you know your land budget too... Go to open homes of established homes selling in the suburb and see if the demand is good when the homes are being re-sold etc.
I've recently purchased land in The Ponds for just under 400k. Small-ish land but all up will cost me 620-630k to build a 4 bedder, 2 bath, 2 livingroom house.. Seen the same house i'm building, except this one sold was crappier with less features just sold for 870k in The Ponds and other similar ones have been selling 900k+. No such thing as buying under value in new estates? Not true..
There's a couple of estates I've messaged you about where you can build much cheaper than what packages are going for.. That's the way to go imo.
If you need more help just pm me. I know these estates inside out and spent way too much studying all of them lol
I think Jacque buys out NW way as well for her clients..
I think both NW and SW will have a fair bit more growth with the train line coming in and airport too and new shops etc..
I don't think banks will start making people do 80%lvr for land otherwise thousands of people will get screwed in Sydney and it will deadset cause a downward spiral in new properties and potential crash with oversupply of land on market and quick sales and it would destroy consumer confidence..Can you imagine the 20,000+ lots coming to registration next year and the banks telling all these people they have to come up with 80%? I can't see it.