China to blow up this year...
- Thread starter DanielG
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Our factory is certainly not in a visitor part of town, so I have seen some of the less glamorous parts of Beijing. I won't stay in the hotel near there... way too disgusting!
and there's certainly a lot of dirt in Beijing! Amazing dust storms there as the winds blow in from Siberia....... But no doubt its worse in other parts of the country.
It will be interesting to see Shanghai this trip. Unfortunately, I havent been before, so won't have seen the transformation of Expo. Beijing has changed sooo much from the first time I went in the 90's - so much sprucing up for the Olympics.
Pen
We need another thread: Europe to blow up this year
On that note...Anyone seen industries flourish in the greek "tragedy". Im just hedging. Love to know what particular industries flourish in downturns.
Its obvious what flourishes on the up. But not so on the down. Litigation is a given sure...anything else?
any industry that's short the euro
I've been to Hangzhou, and it's no worse than Shanghai or Beijing.
With regards to the EU, Greece is a mess and will probably default. Not sure about the other countries, but Portugal and Spain are looking pretty shaky. Ireland has had some pretty savage spending cuts and is getting back on course. I've got a feeling that Italy has a big debt, but the budget deficit isn't too big. And there's some talk about Belgium being borderline.
Germany is sorting itself out, and looks to tighten its spending rules. There were some rumours that it could pull out of the Euro on the grounds that it's just not strict enough for them.
The UK is pretty broke. Expect a major series of spending cuts to be announced here in the next month or two. I don't think that the public (and some politicians) are aware of how savage things need to be, but we're about two or three years behind Greece at the current deficit...
How about another thread, US to blow up this year?
With regards to the EU, Greece is a mess and will probably default. Not sure about the other countries, but Portugal and Spain are looking pretty shaky. Ireland has had some pretty savage spending cuts and is getting back on course. I've got a feeling that Italy has a big debt, but the budget deficit isn't too big. And there's some talk about Belgium being borderline.
Germany is sorting itself out, and looks to tighten its spending rules. There were some rumours that it could pull out of the Euro on the grounds that it's just not strict enough for them.
The UK is pretty broke. Expect a major series of spending cuts to be announced here in the next month or two. I don't think that the public (and some politicians) are aware of how savage things need to be, but we're about two or three years behind Greece at the current deficit...
How about another thread, US to blow up this year?
http://blog.mises.org/11080/chinese-ghost-town/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emzKAa9rKgU
I think china is the largest ponzi scheme in the world.
What would stop china using thier own printed dollars to stock gold and commodities, therefore rendering thier own dollar and other currencies relatively worthless in time?.
When the fiat system collapses they will rule.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emzKAa9rKgU
I think china is the largest ponzi scheme in the world.
What would stop china using thier own printed dollars to stock gold and commodities, therefore rendering thier own dollar and other currencies relatively worthless in time?.
When the fiat system collapses they will rule.
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ooooh now you got me thinking - i think that's the idea. they can use their HUGE cash reserves to undercut any manufacturing nation on the planet by devaluing their currency.
method in the madness there was, it seems.
method in the madness there was, it seems.
An interesting article by Michael Pettis, via Business Spectator's Karen Maley, highlights the uncertainty of China's options in curbing inflation.
Meanwhile, the SSEC has dropped over 20% since last year's high.
No wonder the Chinese are buying gold.
Whether commodity economies with lots of exposure to China are ripe for shorting, is an interesting question. An interest rate drop in China would make it compelling, imho.
Meanwhile, the SSEC has dropped over 20% since last year's high.
No wonder the Chinese are buying gold.
Whether commodity economies with lots of exposure to China are ripe for shorting, is an interesting question. An interest rate drop in China would make it compelling, imho.
take your chart back a little longer and you'll see a steady upward trend.
you mean before it started raining cheap credit?
hope you read that Pettis article BC. It is a fair analysis of the options open to the Chinese government.
Fifty years ago I learnt how to present and interpret squiggles on an oscilloscope. If I saw a chart with time/voltage axes other guys with different screens could present the same data in such a way that an observer would not believe that they had the same input. All are legitimate but only one can tell you what you want to know. The others, while being correct, are spurious.
Charts, like statistics are open to massive manipulation. You must decide what you want to know and THEN choose relevant X & Y axes. The inverse is equally true: Careful selection of the axes can "prove" an anomoly to be the norm.
Charts, like statistics are open to massive manipulation. You must decide what you want to know and THEN choose relevant X & Y axes. The inverse is equally true: Careful selection of the axes can "prove" an anomoly to be the norm.
I can't find one chart for SSE woe to go.
It began in 1991, and moved erratically up to 1000 in 1997.
IMHO, the last 6 years of trading reveal the influence of credit, global or otherwise.....and the unfolding of Chinese asset inflation and investment dependent growth, in combination with the European mess, are real concerns to my investment decisions.
It began in 1991, and moved erratically up to 1000 in 1997.
IMHO, the last 6 years of trading reveal the influence of credit, global or otherwise.....and the unfolding of Chinese asset inflation and investment dependent growth, in combination with the European mess, are real concerns to my investment decisions.
i still see a nice underlying growth trend support line.
Interesting perspective here:
http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas/index.cfm/2010/5/15/China-The-Future-That-Was
http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas/index.cfm/2010/5/15/China-The-Future-That-Was
that couldn't have been harder to read if the order was to MAKE it harder to read.
I thought it was a good read Amadio.
The world can't have CAS economies perpetually funding CAD consumption.....unless the CADs have lots of natural wealth to keep selling to foreigners......a bit like Australia....
BC, maybe you are more familiar with autocad and archicad, then econo-cad's.
The world can't have CAS economies perpetually funding CAD consumption.....unless the CADs have lots of natural wealth to keep selling to foreigners......a bit like Australia....
BC, maybe you are more familiar with autocad and archicad, then econo-cad's.
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at what level is the support now?
today the sse composite is around 2600, a month ago was over 3100, the best support is around 1000, but probably around 2000 as well.
Anyway, to blow up this year might be the commodity country, including australia, commodity have been nosediving and the aU$ few minutes ago bottomed at 87.2 cents. Very likely AU government will need emmergency measures before the end of the month to insure banks have enough money (gov backed loans again?)
Boz, have a look at the Euro market futures on Bloomberg, especially the french and italian markets. This is going to be an interesting week.
And check the dollar spot index
It seems Trichet's attempt to trick the bond vigilantes has blown up in his face....equity markets are going to cop the heat anyways......The Germans must be spewing now. Der Spiegel has been interesting reading recently.
The VIX should kick up too. There's two derivatives that track it which make a good hedge against longs, or a good speccy in their own right.
VXX
VXZ
The latter is the better tracker imho.
edit: as they are futures etns, they suffer from time decay, so better to place them for short periods to catch the volatility.
And check the dollar spot index
It seems Trichet's attempt to trick the bond vigilantes has blown up in his face....equity markets are going to cop the heat anyways......The Germans must be spewing now. Der Spiegel has been interesting reading recently.
The VIX should kick up too. There's two derivatives that track it which make a good hedge against longs, or a good speccy in their own right.
VXX
VXZ
The latter is the better tracker imho.
edit: as they are futures etns, they suffer from time decay, so better to place them for short periods to catch the volatility.
