China Triggers the Recession Alarm

[lizzie]

The recent move by Juliar to export to India is an indication that diversification of markets is important.

Added to that the very real possibility that Onesteel will close it's Whyalla steelworks and a new industry is required for a dependent population of around 25,000 ...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-21/onesteel-warns-clock-is-ticking-on-whyalla/3685304?section=nsw

 

[Sunfish]

They have been talking about China's demise as long as they have been talking about the collapse of the Aussie housing market.

Why believe the reports of one, but not the other?

BHP, RIO, FMG will not stop mining but new developments (competition) will be shelved. Just last week BHP secured $3 billion dollars funding at V low rates so they will continue producing (and employing) through any slump coming, as they did the last one. We have room to move on both interest rates and currency valuation.

We are doing it tougher than our PM and Treasurer make out and it will get worse if China does slow down. But if their exports slow they can revalue the Yuan and boost their domestic economy. That will still need coal, uranium, iron and copper.

 

[Rixter]

If China falters, Australia falls. Simple.

There's always fried rice.

 

[CHam]

Hello,

not backing up this link - he has his own objectives of course but it is from the perspective of someone from the region in question.

http://www.yourinvestmentpropertyma...alian-residential-property-market-119866.aspx

The comments below relate to this topic a bit "If you happened to own a business that had the mandate to rebuild the entire Australian nation from scratch 20 times over within a couple of decades, and your business has been selected as the largest supplier of resources needed for the task, how do you think this business would do financially? Some people worried about the Chinese economy slowing down could hurt Australia, but really if they slows down by 10% (i.e. a serious recession), instead of building Australia 20 times over, they are now only doing it 18 times, what difference does it make? Australia still couldn't keep up with that demand anyway"

Thanks

I know it is a bit off topic (US economy) but I did like the reference to the current deficit in the US and comparisons to a household budget:

To make their situation easier to understand, let’s remove 8 zeros and pretend it's a household budget:
• Annual family income: $21,700
• Money the family spent: $38,200
• New debt on the credit card: $16,500
• Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710
• Total budget cuts: $385

 

[CHam]

There's always fried rice.

I like Special Flied Lice.

 

[Rixter]

I like Special Flied Lice.

It will be special once the uranium let loose.

 

[CHam]

It will be special once the uranium let loose.

Doesn't it already have Uranium in it...? Oh sorry thats MSG.

 

[Rixter]

Doesn't it already have Uranium in it...? Oh sorry thats MSG.

Same effect.

 

[Deltaberry]

There's always fried rice.

That's all we'll be eating in a recession.

 

[Rixter]

That's all we'll be eating in a recession.

No we wont..Fried rice is sheer luxury - more like steamed rice for the recession.

 

[Deltaberry]

No we wont..Fried rice is sheer luxury - more like steamed rice for the recession.

True. And it'll be lots of lice

 

[Cam1]

Fried rice is sheer luxury - more like steamed rice for the recession.

Have you seen the queues for sushi at lunchtime in the CBD? Perhaps the recession is already here.

Or will there be $1 sushi rolls with nothing but steamed rice in them to signify the recession? Customers can add free soy sauce for flavour.

 

[Sunfish]

Have you seen the queues for sushi at lunchtime in the CBD? Perhaps the recession is already here.

That's the CO2 tax working. No cooking!!!

 

[equitymate]

While I am not sure about sashs figures the hoo ha over Chinese trade is definately louder than the reality. For example we export more to Japan and Korea combined than to China.I am sure our coal and natural gas sales to Japanese or Korean power stations are more of a guaranteed certainty going forward but hey 'China Boom' makes for a more interesting headline.
Trade aint so black and white as what get parrotted by lazy journos..Sure China is important but its just almost 80% of our exports go elsewhere.
http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/trade/trade-at-a-glance-2011.pdf

 

[Aaron Sice]

While I am not sure about sashs figures the hoo ha over Chinese trade is definately louder than the reality. For example we export more to Japan and Korea combined than to China.I am sure our coal and natural gas sales to Japanese or Korean power stations are more of a guaranteed certainty going forward but hey 'China Boom' makes for a more interesting headline.
Trade aint so black and white as what get parrotted by lazy journos..Sure China is important but its just almost 80% of our exports go elsewhere.
http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/trade/trade-at-a-glance-2011.pdf

KkUuDdOoSs

 

[TomW]

While I am not sure about sashs figures the hoo ha over Chinese trade is definately louder than the reality. For example we export more to Japan and Korea combined than to China.I am sure our coal and natural gas sales to Japanese or Korean power stations are more of a guaranteed certainty going forward but hey 'China Boom' makes for a more interesting headline.
Trade aint so black and white as what get parrotted by lazy journos..Sure China is important but its just almost 80% of our exports go elsewhere.
http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/trade/trade-at-a-glance-2011.pdf

Umm if China slows down what do you think is going to happen to the rest of Asia?

 

[topcropper]

Hello,

not backing up this link - he has his own objectives of course but it is from the perspective of someone from the region in question.

http://www.yourinvestmentpropertyma...alian-residential-property-market-119866.aspx

The comments below relate to this topic a bit "If you happened to own a business that had the mandate to rebuild the entire Australian nation from scratch 20 times over within a couple of decades, and your business has been selected as the largest supplier of resources needed for the task, how do you think this business would do financially? Some people worried about the Chinese economy slowing down could hurt Australia, but really if they slows down by 10% (i.e. a serious recession), instead of building Australia 20 times over, they are now only doing it 18 times, what difference does it make? Australia still couldn't keep up with that demand anyway"

Thanks

That's an interesting article. And one of the most bullish you'll ever read, Wow!!!

It concerns me a bit with some of his factual mistakes though. If you write something like that you'd make sure you get some simple facts correct. It's pretty easy to check on figures these days with the net and all, and two of the biggest factual errors, I didn't even had to check on, I already knew.

He claims,....
......"China has 102 cities with an urban population of 5 million people or more".

That's rubbish. The 100th biggest city is getting down to about a million people.


He also claims,......
......"I came to Australia from China in 1988. At that time there were almost 1 billion farmers in China".

Rubbish too. There was only about 1.1 billion people in China in 1988, so how could there have been almost a billion farmers?


See ya's.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Rubbish too. There was only about 1.1 billion people in China in 1988, so how could there have been almost a billion farmers?


See ya's.

only.......!

 

[sammmeee]

I know it is a bit off topic (US economy) but I did like the reference to the current deficit in the US and comparisons to a household budget:

To make their situation easier to understand, let’s remove 8 zeros and pretend it's a household budget:
• Annual family income: $21,700
• Money the family spent: $38,200
• New debt on the credit card: $16,500
• Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710
• Total budget cuts: $385

I laughed out loud at this. For god's sake imagine going to a bank with those figures. An absolute joke!!!

 

[Aaron_C]

I laughed out loud at this. For god's sake imagine going to a bank with those figures. An absolute joke!!!

That's what lo-doc is for