China Triggers the Recession Alarm
- Thread starter CHam
- Start date
yep, bullish, still not the most bullish Ive ever read though, but you have to look at who wrote it and the publication etc, as with all the articles and podcasts I read a listen to from both perspectives (they all have something to gain from their perspective).
Would be good to have direct contact and let him know about the errors you point out, would love to read (if you got one) the response, that would be interesting to read.
If I take anything from it is the ratio of numbers (not the incorrect facts), i.e. Australia is merely a blip on the radar amoungst all these numbers from China.
Well - it was comparing apples with apples as the US figures are for government debt.
And you don't like the fact that Aussies are in hock, more so than the Yanks, and would prefer to sweep it under the carpet.
Your choice. not mine.
are they?
whats the average net assets (including Super) of those Australians approaching retirement compared to their US counter parts.
Whats the average equity in australian housing compared to their US counterparts.
For the younger pre retiring population, what is their net asset value as compared to their US counter parts???
although i trend towards liberal, i have to give a massive thumbs up to labours initiative under Keating to install Australia's superannuation system. It was light years ahead of thinking at the time, the US is still back in the 80's on this and in the words of Robert Frost ... and this made all the difference.
What idiot gave the family on 20k, a 140k limit on their credit card?
Two points on that front I guess
On resources, the vast majority of our hard commodities exports, such as iron ore, definitely go to China. China continues to be the largest thermal and coking coal importer from Australia ahead of Japan and Korea too. Australia does not export that much natural gas because LNG export is still a very junior market. Obviously no one's built a pipeline to Asia yet so we can't just send gas directly over there in case anyone's wondering.
The China Boom is actually more than just about Australia's trade with China. It's all contagious. A China collapse would presumably drag all its trading partners down which include South Korea, India, Indonesia etc. Of course, the already faltering economies of USA/Europe/Japan will take further hits. It's too naive to view a China collapse as just impacting 20% of our foreign trade. And for the record, 20% is already a lot.
In the mean time, I see the A$ has already begun a downward trajectory. Hope you all sold out as suggested. Easy 10% gains in a short time.
no one, politicians and congress turn a blind eye to the Fed printing money in direct violation of their constitution.
What about this?
Hmm. Looking closer, this chart has different scales on each side. Why did they do that? So it appears that Aussie debt topped out at about 160% gdp, but US debt topped out at about 300%.
I suppose the most important thing is can it be repayed? Currently Aussies are handleing it, and Americans aren't, hence their house prices crashing.
See ya's.
This is a weird graph, where the scale on the right is twice the scale on the left. Why not use the same scale for both countries?
It looks like Australia's debt is now higher than the US, while it is actually about half when you look closely.
It looks like Australia's debt is now higher than the US, while it is actually about half when you look closely.
Did I say that? Was just pointing out that the comparison was comparing the same things.
Interesting chart TC. Wonder what the ratio of assets and superannuation (401k) are?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...osion-in-crazy-regulation-20111116-1nizo.html
Looks to me as though the average Aussie has 4 times the wealth of the average American?
And according to this article, are we the wealthiest, or second behind Switzerland? It seems to say both?
See ya's.
Well, I actually thought our private debt would be far higher than americans too. Maybe it is, thats just one chart I found, who knows if it's correct?
See ya's.
I am well aware of potential flow on effects. But my point was I hardly think developed places like Japan or Korea are going to switch their lights off either. Heck back in 2009 Japan was still our largest export market even though the papers told us China saved us from the GFC??
My point is if anyone thinks Australian exports are solely built on China they are understandably misinformed.
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FYI According to the Australian Coal Association most of Australias Coal exports go to Japan, almost three times as much as China actually.
http://www.australiancoal.com.au/the-australian-coal-industry_coal-exports.aspx
Growth in LNG exports will be massive going forward.
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