Deer Park or Point Cook?

[The Y-man]

, Laverton can't even sustain a two-dollar shop and a Tatts outlet, both of which are the archetype low income suburb shops (as Lonsdale St Dandenong confirms).
Peter

Hey.... both of those in Glen Waverley and Doncaster East (archetypal middle class suburbs) ....

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[The Y-man]

Purchase residential investment properties or shopping centers? 40K to 250k in 10 years, plus whatever it is doing now. Local shops are irrelevant for a suburb with 2 freeway exits, 2 large malls, commuters who shop elsewhere. one of the strangest property barometers I have heard of, does it generally work?. because all the new subdivisions, and suburbs are entirely vehicle centered and dont have any local shops at all.

I think the key word is "new".

New suburbs may be vehicle centred, whereas I think an exisiting inner suburb where local shops have died is a bit of a warning sign.

The little local milk bars ("delis" to other states!) in high demand inner suburbs have been turned back into residential or have morphed into consulting rooms for medicos, accountants, etc.

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[Peter Parker]

Hey.... both of those in Glen Waverley and Doncaster East (archetypal middle class suburbs) ....

The difference is in the mix.

Whereas they're just one shop in the 'better' areas (and there're bookshops, cafes, high fashion shops, gourmet delis, etc nearby) it contrasts to somewhere like Dandenong CBD where there are 5 or 10 discount shops along a short stretch of street (plus op-shops on the other side). Sure there's other shops as well, but the ratios are different.

An up an coming area (eg Carnegie) has seen op-shops close and move out, and those that are left aren't much good (for traditional op-shop stuff). Whereas a languishing strip like Glenhuntly has kept all its op-shops, including the district's biggest.

Having said that, a second REA has closed in Carnegie and a $2 shop has replaced what was a continental deli. The former is because the suburb was grossly over-REAd. I don't think the latter is any sign of degentrification given that the suburb remains in the grip of a building boom with even the local keycutter moving into large new premises.

But when an area gets really swank (eg Elsternwick) there's fewer local fruiters, bakers, butchers, etc and liveability actually declines IMHO (assuming you don't eat out each night).

Peter

 

[AlmostBob]

Thanks Spidey & Y-man
I went looking round,
its a good 'state-of-the-region' indicator and something to keep in mind

 

[AlmostBob]

Spiderman & Y-man
the shopping centre barometer, is really accurate, been following trends here for the last 9 months, and it fits so well,
Thanks for a great tool

 

[meggala]

I think deer park has some potential. but also consider west sunshine and stalbans. rail is very clsoe to these. I strongly considered these area's nearly bought a 2 bed weather board in west sunshine for 200k just off furlong road. but I dont have the time to renovate etc. i deer park alot of the house were built for emplyees of ici ifyou get serious check the title.as for laverton there are a couple of new estates offering 200+ house and land packages off korroit creek road hence why I dont think there is much growth. one area of deer park worth looking at is on the banks fo the river some bargains and houses with good potential. the market there is neive workers who house is their only asset. look hard the best stuff never hits the market it is sold buy the smart agent b4 a board goes up. also look out for the high tension power lines they really kick a properties price in the guts and slow rental prospects. some better quality built houses in st albans as well.
one last area to consider ardeer very under rated also on the move price wise.
needless to say the rental market is very strong with good tenancy retention rates. also don't bank on the line to deer park being electrified.
cheers
meggala


so where did I buy melton why cause it suits me for a lot of reason and I live in my house. but there were heaps of baragins in deer park etc aroud christmas

 

[Georges]

hi guys.
comparing deer park, laverton with broadmeadows, which is better?

-proximity to city
-public transport
-zone 1 or 2
- rental potential & stability

Im doing my research at moment, just to see if anyone who knows about these area, or have invested or lived in these area before.

 

[AlmostBob]

A reply to a pers. message that I thought belongs here

Hi Bob,
Very impressed with your knowledge base about investing in property. People like you, Alex, and other do really help and are very informative.
I am a beginner (have been reading forum for 6 month). Very passionate about getting to the market ASAP and eventually becoming financially independent.
Could I ask you to comment on one of your latest posts?
You have recently written about Laverton:

"Average 18% capital growth for 9 years
1996 40K
2000 90K buy
2002 158K sell, I think I could have got higher if I werent leaving the country, time pressures
2006 225K selling prices, for very similar row houses in the same row
Of course that wont/cant continue forever"
How long do you think would this growth continue? Do you have any ideas about the potential for the suburb? Would you buy an IP there if you were starting as an investor?
Thank you very much for your time and help,
Cheers
SF

I'm still a beginner too,
IP in Laverton, sure would.
The area aound Laverton is home to a very large number of "permanent Causual" labour users,
CATerpillar, Davids holdings (Jewel supermarkets etc), Westgate Transport(coles myer), Sakata, Shell, BP, ASR, Commercial Polymer, The Jail, Comalco, P & O Coldstores
all have labour forces of 300+ in each of 3 shifts 7 days/week, where the staff are suppplied by contract labor hire services. These permanent workers are determined by the banks to be part time employees and they cant get loans. They do have net incomes of 1K+/week (I did I drove a forlklift at Westage) and the desire to live close to the beach close, to work, close to services. They all drive, they dont care that the nearest supermarket is 4km away. The area is well served, closer to town than anything else that isnt sold out months in advance. It has a bad rep, but so did Williamstown in the late 80s-90s, now houses in Willi are 1million+
The houses are like Heidelberg repat area, solid brick ex-RAAF houses, no maintainence requirement, small lots, no lawns to water, and the recreational facilities are spectacular.

I think Laverton will show continued capital growth, at least untill the median price matches adjoining suburbs, and in Melbourne is one of the few areas that is actually CF+

 

[Peter 14.7]

And another thing to ponder, in the same general area, Rifle Range estate Williamstown
for 70 years more than three hundred men per day, fired 237 rounds each in qualifying shoots for 303, SLR, F1 and other small arms when it was a rifle range
237 * 300 * about 100 days/year *70 years
497700000 rounds
55g lead per round

27,373.5 tonnes of lead
punched up to 3m deep in the soil
lead poisoning is slow and irreversible, and works best(? worst) in children,
raise a family there, I'd rather not.

Great Posts Almost Bob, you know your stuff.

Re the lead I did consulting on the Anzac Range in Maroubra Sydney, same deal. The shooters tell me they rake the mounds and recycle the lead.

If not the same down there someone should at the prices of metals these days.

They even give you $500 to collect and take away for an old car body.

Peter

 

[Peter 14.7]

On Deer Park

Will ask my sister as she has worked 18 years at Brimbank Shopping Centre for Safeway. Started at 17!. She would know what the local vibe is like.

I think the new road works will benefit further out say Melton!. Deer Park residents don't usually work in the CBD. Very blue collar.

Peter

 

[AlmostBob]

HI Bob,

u said LAverton is CF+? Do you know how much is the average rent there? The houses there cheapest are asking for $180k abouts, and to be positive means the rent should be above $280?

Ive been looking at Laverton for some time, but not much stock there selling.

rgards,
Charlie

The landlords there now bought when I did, and paid between 40 & 90, they are cf+ at 120/week, rents are far above 120/week, selling prices are going up and when something is to be listed, it does not even make it to the REA window.
CF+ & CG+, nobody sells
Ray white on the corner of aviation rd held the most rentals in the area, they will have the going rent rates, and maybe the short line to coming sales

 

[dkis]

What about Saltwater Coast

I have just put the deposit on the block of land in "the newest bay side community" as described on they web page.
Now reading on about problem in the Sanctuary lakes I am not so shore i have done good move as this is just next door and very much on the see level.
As the development is in its early stage the price is same as everywhere else in Poin Cook, so I thought this is a good investment for future, especially knowing that Sanctuary lakes land started off from relatively low land price and now that it is finished if you an owner of anything there you would be laughing all the way to the bank.
Does anyone have the opinion on the Saltwater Coast?

 

[AlmostBob]

I have just put the deposit on the block of land in "the newest bay side community" as described on they web page.
Now reading on about problem in the Sanctuary lakes I am not so shore i have done good move as this is just next door and very much on the see level.
As the development is in its early stage the price is same as everywhere else in Poin Cook, so I thought this is a good investment for future, especially knowing that Sanctuary lakes land started off from relatively low land price and now that it is finished if you an owner of anything there you would be laughing all the way to the bank.
Does anyone have the opinion on the Saltwater Coast?

bloke, you misread,

Sanctuary Lakes original level is below/at sea level,
it was salt pans that flooded just by opening the gates in a dike
it was raised up by dumping demolished city buildings into the mud
the ground is H class, unstable at best, worse than H in places
there are pumps over the estate to pump the sea water back out to stop flooding
If you go here http://maps.google.com.au/maps?f=q&...144.754143&spn=0.092791,0.117073&z=13&iwloc=A
and look east, either by google streetview or driving past, you can see the first of the pump stations for Sanctuary lakes, a large metal box on the nature strip

the area you are looking at is much higher than the original ground level of sanctuary lakes the homestead across the road has not flooded in 100+ years

 

[Rixter]

The connection between Laverton and the prison is particularly strong given that there is a free prison bus that leaves Laverton Station every hour. Hence the area attracts many people who are 'just visiting'.

Yeah, just visiting whilst either still on parole, recently off parole, or past guests of her majesty.

I dont know about you but I'd prefer other prospective tenants.

 

[investwest]

thanks for the secret.

Ex-Laverton pleb here
lived in 12 Hickey street, when there was the op shop, cop shop, fish shop, pizza shop, chinese restaurant, bank, post office, bottle shop, laundromat,
$2 shop, till the bank closed and everything else evaporated

bought for 90K
sold for 158K 19 months later, without really trying, bugger all reno done, wanted to leave she was in Canada

5 Cynthia Crt, 13 Strezlecki Ave, 284 Victoria Altona meadows not richmond
really good capital growth
returns in the area were huge, (are huge ?)
there are large demands for labor intensive industries, the banks say are casual employment and the 60K incomes arent guaranteed, so the labor force cant get easy loans and give up trying, so fall into rentals rental demand is large. I worked as a shift hand at one of the warehouses and there were always coworkers leaving me their contact details for when any tenant moved out.

Shh its a secret
Travel down Point Cook Rd
Last road left before the Airbase
First Right into Regional Park gate
Follow the drive bearing left at each fork in the road (I think 2 but its been a few years, 2-3km to the last unspoiled beaches in Melb.
please take your bloody rubbish home with you

Or second right to the Pt Cook Homestead, the Carlton United Horses live in the barns and are a lot of fun

I'll have to go and have a look. When we first moved down here I had all these dreams about secret beaches in the area. One of them was Werribee back beach with the boat houses. I told my brother about my dream, and he said it exists and drove me down there, blew me away.

 

[investwest]

any thing good at the op shop?

Having returned from Laverton today, I can confirm that there are signs of life that weren't there during my last expedition.

1. There is now not one but two shops trading in the shopping strip. Joining the op-shop is a 'community support' shop. This is half op-shop and half $2 shop and half cheap hardware. Dark with stuff everwhere.

Both shopkeepers gave me a friendly welcome - there is no one on the streets, and I suspect that I was the first customer anyone had seen this morning.

2. There are big earthworks in the street outside the shops. It's a mess but some good could come out of it when it's finished.

3. More public transport. I mentioned the unmarked bus to Port Phillip max security Prison and that Laverton was a popular spot for those 'just visiting'. Last week the prison bus was joined by a new 7-day service. This serves three correctional facilities (incl PP & a remand centre) and links Laverton to Deer Park and Sunshine.

4. The beginnings of a community garden.

Peter

We caught the train into the city from Laverton station the other day, we dont do that often, so for the first time we noticed the op shop, in fact it was the first time we noticed that little shopping strip. I have been meaning to go and have a look, as I love op shopping, so anything good there?

 

[bennido]

I feel that Deer Park presents more opportunity for capital growth compared to Point Cook for the following reasons :

- It is an established suburb close to all the facilities you would expect (i.e. big shopping centres, shopping strips, schools, hospital, churches, etc)
- Great access to the city as well as to other Western metro suburbs like Sunshine, Maribynong, Essendon, etc
- New "poshier" suburbs like Caroline Springs has improved the socio-economic level of the area and with it an improvement in the surroundings (e.g. parks, shops, cafes, restaurants, etc)

 

[lisport]

I live near Deer Park.

Not sure how it is now, but the crime rate used to be high, with car theft the highest in melbourne. It is a rough suburb.

I like how close everything is though (apart from a beach). You have 1 small shopping centre close by, you have a decent size shopping centre which is deer park shops, you have keilor shops, but you might aswell go to watergardens, which is a good size shopping centre (think Airport West).
Close to sunshine, and it's shopping. About 15mins to highpoint.
It's about 5 to 10 mins to VUT st albans. It's about 15-20mins to VUT Footscray.
2 mins and your on the ring rd fwy. 20mins to city.

Deer Park is a good suburb, its the people who live there that make it difficult. I think its the people that are the reason the cuburb is so cheap.

Hope its helped

PS Check out Carinlea also.

 

[MC1]

Lisport, you're an idiot

 

[investwest]

Deer Park, flat alluvial clay pan lands requiring deep foundations, pretty stable ground, but BORING, good shopping centers, say Hi to my mum.

Point Cook: salt flats, requiring really really (really[sup]2[/sup]) deep foundations.
When the Sanctuary lakes estates were being built the ground level was raised above low tide line by the expedient of dumping the rubble from the demolition of the corner of spring and latrobe street government buildings into the mud.
I drove one of the fleet of semi trailer dumpers running 24/6 (1 day off) down princess highway full of rubble. The ground is full of broken concrete and asbestos wall insulation steel rebar bricks chipboard topped with 12-18 inches of the original topsoil scraped of and dumped back on top of the fill.
The buildings for cheatham salt works are still on site, the ground below the fill is salted and as soon as trees get their roots down they die.
When the slab for the Sanctuary lakes welcome center, now a restaurant, was poured it was in the wrong place. They pushed two jcv bulldozers up against the edge of the slab and slid it into the right place through the soup. The ground is really unstable, all those expensive GregNormanGolfCourse houses are very short lived
There are several large metal frame boxes around the new point Cook estates. They are the covers over the sump pumps. Each one covers a 12 foot deep pit with two 30inch diameter pumps in it hooked up to pipelines out to the bay to try and keep the salt water table out of the houses. Dont take my word for it 30yards inside the gate on Sanctuary boulevard Right hand side, read the label on the box. If the power fails for any length of time it will flood, the lakes are NOT decorative.
The older parts of Point Cook, Closer to RAAF point Cook, and Closer to McDonalds/princes hwy are nearly 10 feet higher above sea level than the newer estates in the middle of the road and a much better deal. There were a number of ex-RAAF married quarters around Strezlecki Rd that would be great IPs, older properties but the maintainence contracts on DHA houses were great.
The really new estates olong the East-West roads between point Cook Rd and the highway are on the higher ground and should be really stable, there are fish in the Skeleton Creek, only carp but its clean enough for them to live.
There are beaches in the area that only very local people know about, completely clean unspoiled, as the access ways look wrong.
I liked Point Cook. I lived in Strezlecki rd in a RAAF house, I lived in Laverton in an ex-housing commission house I bought for 90K and sold for 158K two years later, paint and plants no major reno needed

Congratulations on the house in Laverton, gee they have gone up, going for around $300,000 now.