Do you agree with Robert Kiyosaki's prediction? GFC in 2016....

[ipinvestor]

Robert Kiyosaki predicted the tech bubble bursting in 2000. He predicted the 2007 GFC. And now he?s predicting a global financial collapse in 2016 that he says will make GFC look like a teddy bear?s picnic.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/is-the-us-at-risk-of-a-hyperinflation-collapse/story-e6frfmci-1227144167041

 

[TMNT]

no,

The timing is very questionable, just before he does his Australian tour

had he not done it just before his tour, I would have taken a bit more notice

 

[oldjonesy]

Do you have any evidence that he predicted the GFC other than a news reporter saying so?

I have no recall of this guy being one of the voices saying a global financial crash was about to happen in 2007

 

[redwing]

I thought that in his "Prophecy" book he was talking about the market crashing in 2011 when the baby boomers started to take out their 401k cash, he wasn't referring to the GFC that unfolded and hadn't predicted it?

When my book ?Rich Dad?s Prophecy? was released in 2002, most financial newspapers and magazines trashed it because I discussed a looming stock market crash. Ironically, much of what I predicted in the book is coming true earlier than I expected.

He was also predicting $7,000 an ounce for gold and $6,000 an ounce for silver in the next few years back in 2012. A prediction without a date or a time frame is not very useful though

Silver was his number 1 investment choice and probably still is

Apparently has his own oil, silver, gold and real estate companies/mines

My prediction is RK's prediction will be real estate, gold, oil and silver

 

[oldjonesy]

Indeed, predicting a stock market crash six years before it happened I will leave to you to decide if that has value (assuming he did actually predict it in his book)

A stock market crash is very different to predicting a global financial crisis - I do not remember his voice being one of those very few.

 

[Danrc]

no,

The timing is very questionable, just before he does his Australian tour

had he not done it just before his tour, I would have taken a bit more notice

100% this

Good way for him to sell more books and tickets

 

[willair]

Do you have any evidence that he predicted the GFC other than a news reporter saying so?

Several did about 12 months prior too the "2008" GFC,,spend some time and have a read on what this gentleman talks about it's worth every minute..

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/books.htm

 

[oldjonesy]

Several did about 12 months prior too the "2008" GFC,,spend some time and have a read on what this gentleman talks about it's worth every minute..

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/books.htm

Don't get me wrong, I am well aware of Schiller and rate him highly. As I recall he was mocked from pillar to post. My beef is with Robert K saying that he predicted the gfc when he did no such thing.

 

[MarkB]

Not 2016.

But at some point the US Government's addiction to debt financing* will, imo, prove calamitous.

(*RK has talked about printing money - so he's got his maxim wrong. But the US government continues to spend money it doesn't have).

But I don't see 2016 or any time soon as the day of reckoning.

 

[willair]

Don't get me wrong, I am well aware of Schiller and rate him highly. As I recall he was mocked from pillar to post. My beef is with Robert K saying that he predicted the gfc when he did no such thing.

Most of those people that write those line of books that sometimes stay on the New-York-Times best sellers list for months have the ability to sometimes insult readers with what they don't know without offending anyone,i have his books bought second hand from book shops for 3 bucks
they are worth a read,but those books stay at the bottom of my book cases
where they belong..

 

[Redom]

I tend to agree with others - it seems to be marketing fluff.

I'm not sure the banks actually carry as much exposure. With all the fin reg reforms going on, i assume that they're in healthier positions than pre crisis and ability to respond to changing economic circumstances are better.

Extended periods of easy money do cause fin stability concerns though...

Not too sure about US debt levels - doesn't seem to unsustainable, at least in the short run, but will need a trajectory will need to improve over time.

 

[Nem]

no,

The timing is very questionable, just before he does his Australian tour

had he not done it just before his tour, I would have taken a bit more notice

I agree with this one and yes, I did buy ticket and went on his seminar on Monday, quite disappointing... he was there for one hour only and all he said was F.. of everything and everyone

 

[Tigger]

I don't recall him predicting the GFC.

He first predicted a big crash starting 2014 way back in about 2006 in one of his books, it might have been Prophecy.

Problem is USA baby boomers caught a break with the govt allowing them to pay no tax on super. IRS then complained (in the 70's) so the US govt of the day decided to pay it fwd by legislating that baby boomers must cash in their super and pay the IRS within 6 months of turning 70. No requirement on them to reinvest it though, so possibly it will get spent. The 1st year there is supposed to be about 1.3 million doing that; after that the nos. climb each year for several years. The impact on the stock market is predicted to be huge.

I guess they might all just pay their 15% and reinvest the rest.

 

[Paul@PFI]

Its easy to scream out that the sky is falling.

Difference between a pessimist and optimist is one makes money. The other just loses money. Which one you ask ??? Half of each get it wrong. Markets go up and down. Timing is everything.

Some people made a load of $$ from the 2010 GFC. They were the ones who bought after the falls. Who weren't exposed to falls. Those who rode it down had to work even harder. When a share plunges 50% you have to make 100% to break even.

 

[Freckle]

Difference between a pessimist and optimist is one makes money. The other just loses money.

I've been pessimistic for over a decade and never made more dosh. Guess that scotches that old wives tale. I know a few other pessimists who are rolling in it as well.

 

[spludgey]

Bring on hyperinflation!

 

[topcropper]

I've been pessimistic for over a decade and never made more dosh. Guess that scotches that old wives tale. I know a few other pessimists who are rolling in it as well.

Not doubting you at all. So how have you made a fortune being pessimistic in the last decade? Just interested that's all.


See ya's.

 

[Jaggannath]

I've been pessimistic for over a decade and never made more dosh. Guess that scotches that old wives tale. I know a few other pessimists who are rolling in it as well.

Paul did actually say that, if you read his comment. He said during a falling market the pessimists are the ones that don't suffer, while during a rising market the optimists tend to do well.

 

[Freckle]

Not doubting you at all. So how have you made a fortune being pessimistic in the last decade? Just interested that's all.


See ya's.

I haven't made a fortune 'being' pessimistic. Being pessimistic enables you to see risks and problems more clearly. You simply avoid them where you can and pick the eyes out of the opportunities that present themselves. For me that's business not property.

This is where most here misunderstand me. I'm pessimistic about the future but optimistic about my chances. Property is a long slow grind with very low annualised returns. Using mega leverage and arbitraging market spreads is high risk in most areas of investment. While volatility is considered low (hence perceived lower risk) exiting a position is often laborious and time consuming effectively neutralising the low volatility advantage.

Business is much more fun and the returns are magnitudes higher with much faster turnaround. The difference though is I use little if any leverage (low to no risk) so total amounts may not compare to property over time.

 

[Freckle]

He said during a falling market the pessimists are the ones that don't suffer,

I always find it amusing how two people can read the same thing and have two completely opposite interpretations.

How to extract your interpretation from this sentence baffles me;

Difference between a pessimist and optimist is one makes money. The other just loses money. Which one you ask ??? Half of each get it wrong. Markets go up and down. Timing is everything.​

My conclusion is that he suggests that pessimists simply just lose money (or opportunity to make money) because they're pessimists and you have to be optimistic to make a dollar or succeed. Chanos would disagree.

Optimism isn't all it's cracked up to be;

He and his team found that older people who had a pessimistic view of their future (they thought their future would be worse than it turned out to be) led longer and healthier lives.

​

and....

Several of my friends are extremely optimistic. In the gravest of situations, they will be smiling and joking ? expecting some good to arrive. Most of these friends are financial failures ? except, of course, for those who happen to be married to wealthy pessimists.

..from The Myth Of Positive Thinking​

...again myth scotched!