Doom and Gloom in Hindsight

[JIT]

Hi everyone,

Has anyone who read through yieldmatters' recent thread, 'Logic Police Thread - the really DIFFICULT questions ...' (http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35846), or similar ones, also read the following two previous and now also locked up threads on a similar topic:

(1) By Harris, 'Bust and then what....????':

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11113

(2) By L_Bernham, 'House prices in freefall':

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13741

I'm thinking of reading through them to see if there were any good, stupid, or silly posts worth quoting here looking back or in hindsight...almost 3.5 to 4 years down the track.

Eg. here's one from L_Bernham in November 2004 regarding the impending global house price crash:

"I've changed my guidance from an expected 35% fall to a 40-45% fall over the next 5 years."

 

[BoatBoy]

Eg. here's one from L_Bernham in November 2004 regarding the impending global house price crash:

"I've changed my guidance from an expected 35% fall to a 40-45% fall over the next 5 years."

OUCH

Missed opportunity or what !!!!!!

Dave

 

[alexlee]

I just don't believe anyone can tip the top or the bottom of the cycle. I don't even believe you can tip how long the current phase of the cycle will last.

My strategy has been to buy when I'm comfortable with the cashflow, either because rent is good or I have extra savings from my salary.

Hold for long enough and you always end up higher than you started.
Alex

 

[JIT]

Had a quick look at those threads and a few others...can't be bothered anymore, sorry! Shouldn't have even started this thread. The same stuff just keeps getting repeated each time a new D&G'er pops into the forum. Bit of a waste of time really, but could be a good laugh in a few more years time when we look back at a few of the ridiculous theories and claims being made here.

Worth reading though are posts by Mark_B, who made some good points from the perspective of an economist, in a few different threads.

And posts by seechange too, who had the right idea back in 2003 when he started using the IGNORE button!

 

[Sunfish]

Shouldn't have even started this thread.

So why did you?

 

[JIT]

Thought I might get something out of it, but in 'hindsight', I don't think so!

 

[Sunfish]

That's OK. But D&Gers have feelings too.

 

[handyandy]

Eg. here's one from L_Bernham in November 2004 regarding the impending global house price crash:

"I've changed my guidance from an expected 35% fall to a 40-45% fall over the next 5 years."

Don't forget he still has 2 years to get it right

You never know he may yet be proven correct. The only problem is that is 40% from what. The timing is after the China Olympics, so you never know, we could be faced with incredible buying opportunities

Cheers

 

[JIT]

That's OK. But D&Gers have feelings too.

Sorry, didn't mean to hurt your feelings .

You never know he may yet be proven correct. The only problem is that is 40% from what.

From 2004 median prices, say in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane...he was predicting a pretty widespread and catastrophic crash I believe.

I don't really follow median prices, but I'm pretty sure they've gone up in Melbourne and Brisbane over the last 3 years, not sure about Sydney. So, it may need to be almost a 50% widespread crash in property prices in just 2 years for him to be right.

Eg. I think Melbourne's median price was 360k in 2004, so a 40% drop from 360k would mean a drop in median price to 216k. From where we are today at 420k, that is a 49% drop, to get to a median price of 216k!!!

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Without trawling through hundreds of LB's posts, I can also recall a time when he stated that there would be catastrophic falls (property) within 6 months. Just before the 6 months were up, LB went strangely silent.

However LB did make a good call on REA.com shares.

Interesting how his bullish call proved accurate and his bearish call proved inaccurate.

bye

 

[BayView]

I just don't believe anyone can tip the top or the bottom of the cycle. I don't even believe you can tip how long the current phase of the cycle will last.
My strategy has been to buy when I'm comfortable with the cashflow, either because rent is good or I have extra savings from my salary.

Hold for long enough and you always end up higher than you started.
Alex

Well, exactly; and here's a good reason to not even bother trying to time the market;
Quote from Warren Buffet (who does have a clue):
"I made a fortune from buying too late and selling too early".

 

[twhurl]

Well the D&G ers have got serious 'wood' in UK now.
It's all over the front pages. They've been wrong every time so far this cycle.
Will be interesting to see what happens in next 6 months. The market is at a bit of a standoff.

 

[yieldmatters]

This thread is dumb because it is hardly "hindsight" - come and speak to me in 5 or 10 years and then we can call it "hindsight". That's about all I can contribute here unless we begin to change topic.

 

[BoatBoy]

This thread is dumb because it is hardly "hindsight" - come and speak to me in 5 or 10 years and then we can call it "hindsight". That's about all I can contribute here unless we begin to change topic.

How do you figure that YM.

these guys have all pretty much been making the same call as you, HG and who could forget MBL since 1994 and it hasnt happened yet.

Like I said, missed opportunity

Dave

 

[JIT]

This thread is dumb because it is hardly "hindsight" - come and speak to me in 5 or 10 years and then we can call it "hindsight". That's about all I can contribute here unless we begin to change topic.

Actually, you've already said you'd throw in the towel in 2 more years if this catastrophic property crash still doesn't eventuate by then...too late to change the 'goal posts' now !

 

[BayView]

This thread is dumb because it is hardly "hindsight" - come and speak to me in 5 or 10 years and then we can call it "hindsight". That's about all I can contribute here unless we begin to change topic.

It depends where you start looking as to what constitutes hindsight.

Me; I look at the last 100 years as a guide;

2 world wars, multitudes of other wars, 2 stock market crashes, dotbomb, techcrash, depression, 20% interest rates, loss of neg gearing benefits in the '80's.

Amazingly, the price of houses still went up. A lot.