Love it, Peter
Election 2013: 14th Sept - the official thread
- Thread starter Peter 14.7
- Start date
Love it, Peter
I think i'll print that one up,and put it on the daughter's door when she comes home at 3 in the morning..
Dear All
Been busy sorry.
Good to see a reasoned debate on why good person as opposed to party politic persons don't stand.
I guess, that is the masses fault. Like the V8 Holden versus Ford we in Aus seems to decide it is only Lib or Labor. Independents rarely get a look in unless they were once ALP or LNP and since left and have the backing and profile to get up.
WHO WILL WILL?
So far it seems ALP is still going to get flogged but Rudd is on the comeback as I see it. Gillard seems to be reaping what she sowed with mistrust , totalitarian management and power everywhere. Ironically they said that was why they got rid of Rudd?
It is fascinating, IMO the ALP will go back to Rudd if they think they have a chance. If not they will stay and watch the ship sink with Gillard.
As for LNP, you have to think Abbott will stay. Even though we (accroding to reports) don't like him, most of us are still going to vote LIB so he is the man. I guess if it gets close with RUDD v ABBOTT then Turnbull may get in.
Remember Hawke and Hayden in 1983. It is never to late the change leaders.
IN MY SEAT
Locally, I am now in the seat of Bendigo which sadly, as discussed earlier, is classic ALP stooge.
The LNP candidate is long time local, small businessman, married, kids, with active and real link to community and volunteer organisation over 30 years. Born, bred and live in VIC. His policy is cost of living, support for the bush and
The local ALP is resigning and heir apparent as of December 2012 was another local small businessman, Solicitor in Bendigo Firm. Also active in community, married with two kids. Like for like. Local v Local.
Then out of nowhere the ALP machine has pushed him out and we now have 32 year old, ex Union rep from QLD, now working for Unions in Melbourne. Does not work in the area. She has since bought a house in the area but does not live in house there because said House "is being renovated." She is renting outworks
Awww. Her policy is ensuring Workchoices exists and workers are not disadvantaged and that she is excited to be 32 year old woman and contesting the seat.
I agree on the last point that being only 32 and given a safe seat with 10% margin would be exciting.
So a local candidate is rolled.
Same old, same old, Peter
Been busy sorry.
Good to see a reasoned debate on why good person as opposed to party politic persons don't stand.
I guess, that is the masses fault. Like the V8 Holden versus Ford we in Aus seems to decide it is only Lib or Labor. Independents rarely get a look in unless they were once ALP or LNP and since left and have the backing and profile to get up.
WHO WILL WILL?
So far it seems ALP is still going to get flogged but Rudd is on the comeback as I see it. Gillard seems to be reaping what she sowed with mistrust , totalitarian management and power everywhere. Ironically they said that was why they got rid of Rudd?
It is fascinating, IMO the ALP will go back to Rudd if they think they have a chance. If not they will stay and watch the ship sink with Gillard.
As for LNP, you have to think Abbott will stay. Even though we (accroding to reports) don't like him, most of us are still going to vote LIB so he is the man. I guess if it gets close with RUDD v ABBOTT then Turnbull may get in.
Remember Hawke and Hayden in 1983. It is never to late the change leaders.
IN MY SEAT
Locally, I am now in the seat of Bendigo which sadly, as discussed earlier, is classic ALP stooge.
The LNP candidate is long time local, small businessman, married, kids, with active and real link to community and volunteer organisation over 30 years. Born, bred and live in VIC. His policy is cost of living, support for the bush and
The local ALP is resigning and heir apparent as of December 2012 was another local small businessman, Solicitor in Bendigo Firm. Also active in community, married with two kids. Like for like. Local v Local.
Then out of nowhere the ALP machine has pushed him out and we now have 32 year old, ex Union rep from QLD, now working for Unions in Melbourne. Does not work in the area. She has since bought a house in the area but does not live in house there because said House "is being renovated." She is renting outworks
Awww. Her policy is ensuring Workchoices exists and workers are not disadvantaged and that she is excited to be 32 year old woman and contesting the seat.
I agree on the last point that being only 32 and given a safe seat with 10% margin would be exciting.
So a local candidate is rolled.
Same old, same old, Peter
Courtesy of the AWU?
Maybe, I watched an interview I would love an interviewer to ask her. So Ms Charters, if you lose the election, will you give a 100% commitment to stay in the electorate?
Personally feel so sorry for the local ALP guy which has been loyal foot solder for many years and admitted in media, he was rolled by factions. Turns out selection is 50% local vote and 50% ALP Executive. Essentially he had get 100% (that is every single member) local support to have chance.
Peter
Got to comment...
Another blow to ALP with Mining Tax officially a failure due to error.
Seems they forget to consider Royalty could rise.
ALP calls it a loophole. I call it the outcome of a rushed solution pushed by Gillard after she knifed Rudd for holding out.
You really cannot see any improvement in ALP chances coming unless Abbott hands it to them.
Regards Peter 14.7
Another blow to ALP with Mining Tax officially a failure due to error.
Seems they forget to consider Royalty could rise.
ALP calls it a loophole. I call it the outcome of a rushed solution pushed by Gillard after she knifed Rudd for holding out.
You really cannot see any improvement in ALP chances coming unless Abbott hands it to them.
Regards Peter 14.7
I just can't believe that a Government is so incompetent that they can't even get a tax right. I blame the independents for letting this pass and I sincerely hope that their electorates toss them all out in September.
I agree, it is mind boggling. Is the GOv that lacking in skills.
When you read this about the NBN it reinforces, yes, they are.
It appears the NBN is total failure in the West.
An excerpt is this:
At Tuesday night's Senate estimates hearing Senator Birmingham asked Mr Quigley, if, ''19 months after work first commenced, are any premises able to access a connection?''
''In Western Australia, no,'' Mr Quigley said.
''In South Australia?''
''There are some premises''.
''Northern Territory?''
''Not at this time''.
So 19 months after work commenced not one single connection in all of WA and NT and a handful in SA. NBN website says it would take 12 months to start.
OMG, Peter
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/po...nbn-hearing-20130213-2ebn2.html#ixzz2Kj648Hx3
As someone who can see the Melbourne Southern Star observation wheel from my balcony, taken down 2009, reconstruction estimated at 12-18 months (IIRC), now possibly later this year (but don't count on it), the private sector is not without delivery issues. But with NBN I can't believe they have allowed it to happen - if next to no one is connected to NBN come the next election, TA will just bin it, so if ever they needed to be able to tell a good story it's now.
True but if the private sector loses money then they lose their own money. It's a bit different.
Exactly.
Having worked in Gov I can say to those who have not, it is 49% dilbert, 50% yes minister, 1% action.
I actually did the "trust" seminar where we all stand in circle and fall backwards into another two person's arms, to learn to trust our team. We had to learn trust because the team backstabbed.
As a result, good projects are delayed, reviewed, extended, ramped up, reconsidered, reschedules, focus grouped, until they die a quiet death in some lonely cubicle. Successes are championed by your manager but lamented by your colleague because it makes them look slow.
In this environment of competing agendas you need a dictator as leader and ruthless enforcers to get anything to happen. Weak government caused paralysis and whilst there is lot of talent there it is must wasted or long give up any hope of success.
Private Sector rewards success and whilst it can get it wrong, more than not it achieves. If not, it dies. i.e. Ansett Airlines anyone?
Government should protect but not produce. Provide incentive not obstacles.
Lets hope Abbott is a strong leader, lets hope he is strong OM. Gillard is weak on both counts.
Regards Peter
Is Rudd on a comeback?... hell yes.
Rudd is very savvy. He will not challenge but if they beg him he will "step up for the party". Excellent face saving strategy. Gillard has month to get it together or game over IMO.
Peter
Rudd is very savvy. He will not challenge but if they beg him he will "step up for the party". Excellent face saving strategy. Gillard has month to get it together or game over IMO.
Peter
Rudd has and continues to destabilize and undermine the party both intentionally and unintentionally, shows poor judgement and an inability to work as part of a team, or to take advice from those where it's prudent to do so, and he's still intensely distrusted and disliked.
As PM he might win them a few extra seats, but would in the medium/long term significantly impact cohesiveness and the stablity of government leading them back to somewhere worse than before.
How do they boot him out a second time when things go bad? Is it wise to take more risk with Rudd?
I think these are Q's they'd be asking themselves.
Then there would need to be another reshuffle. Possibly more resignations, etc.
Is Rudd really the one that could save them?
I think both Rudd and Gillard would be a disaster leading the Labor government forward.
The answer?? I don't know.
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The trouble I have with voting for Rudd is what happens after the election. Rudd might be rolled the month after to again be replaced with Julia Gillard (who I can't stand) or someone similar like Shorten or Conroy.
I voted for Rudd once before and Labor rolled him (disastrously). The trust is no longer there.
Same here. Good point. Peter
The question to ask about Mr Rudd is what influence does he exert on Labors policy ,plus i don't think he will win his seat ..
Doesn't Rudd have a rather healthy margin?
Do you think Rudd's electorate will vote even more in favour of libs than the national average? Will it swing in greater favour of the libs than other electorates.
Rudd holds the Federal seat of Griffith with a margin of 8.5%, which is considered 'fairly safe'. Under normal circumstances, Rudd would easily hold his seat again in 2013. However, the results from the 2103 federal election will be anything but normal.
Wow, detailed question....hard to answer without 'on the ground' polling evidence. The seat of Griffith had traditionally been a Labor stronghold.....our SS member wylie lives in this electorate - perhaps she could comment on the latest whispers.
In the landslide victory of 1996 when Howard swept to power, Rudd first stood for the seat of Griffith and lost to the Liberals, so the seat can swing enough to elect a conservative candidate.
In 2010, Rudd lost a full 9.0% of his primary vote, falling from a secure 53.1% down to 44.1%. The Greens candidate profited most from this drop, securing a boost of 7.5%, whilst the LNP candidate edged up a small 1.8%.
It would need to be another monumental drop for Rudd to lose his seat in 2013.....but once again, after what we saw in March 2012, Labor suffered more than a monumental drop in their state result, so anything is possible.
It is not established at this stage what the 'national average' swing will be. That type of broad brush approach is OK for TV and general analysis, but individual seats swing sometimes more and sometimes less than the average, which affects who gets in or not.
Another hard question. The Federal seat of Griffith is pretty much the combination of three state seats - Bulimba, Sth Brisbane and Greenslopes.
In the March 2012 election, which is the latest true data to rely upon, we saw the following ;
- Bulimba............7.9% swing against the ALP
- Sth Brisbane....10.0% swing against the ALP
- Greenslopes.......8.9% swing against the ALP
Combining those 3 above, if the public vote how they did this time last year, it would fair to say that Kevin Rudd, with a margin of 8.5% up his sleeve, would lose his Federal seat....just.
The only thing that would save him would be his personal popularity.
Kevin Rudd's federal seat of Griffith is the safest in Queensland with a margin of 8.5%. The Labor Party holds only 8 of the 30 federal seats in Qld. If they carry on like they are, there is a real risk the Labor Party could be completely wiped out in that state.
The seats up in Qld held by Labor with their margins are ;
Moreton..........1.1%
Petrie.............2.5%
Lilley..............3.2% (Wayne Swan's seat)
Capricornia......3.7%
Blair...............4.2%
Rankin............5.4%
Oxley..............5.8% (Pauline Hanson's old seat)
Griffith............8.5% (Kevin Rudd's seat)
As can be seen, with a notional swing of just 6.0%, Labor would lose all of it's remaining seats in Qld bar Rudd's. It ain't looking pretty....and this disasterous mining tax will be felt heavily in Qld with it's coal interests.
The chance of our Federal Treasurer being booted out completely is high.
Abbott ahead of Gillard
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...nd-rudd-more-popular-20130217-2elb7.html#poll
WOW here is sign he ALP is in trouble when polls show Abbott as preferred PM.
I still say Rudd is waiting and will take the PM ship if only to revenge Gillard. The hate between them must be almost physical.
The questions now are:
can Abbott maintain this lead.
will Rudd strike.
Peter
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...nd-rudd-more-popular-20130217-2elb7.html#poll
WOW here is sign he ALP is in trouble when polls show Abbott as preferred PM.
I still say Rudd is waiting and will take the PM ship if only to revenge Gillard. The hate between them must be almost physical.
The questions now are:
can Abbott maintain this lead.
will Rudd strike.
Peter
